The Spencerian

Viva Las Spencerian! Ben & Jason's Final Ballots

Here we are just a few days out, and I thought I'd remind everyone of the final predictions Jason and I have made on this upcoming election.

Here are our answers.  Mine are in bolded red, Jason's are in bolded blue.

PRESIDENTIAL

Percentage of Popular Vote Obama/Biden to one decimal point
(closest prediction gets 1 point; ties split)

51.2%                    51.9%

Percentage of Popular Vote McCain/Palin to one decimal point
(closest prediction gets 1 point; ties split)

48.4%                    47.9%

Number of Electoral Votes to Obama/Biden
(closest prediction gets 1 point; ties split)

291                        360

Number of Electoral Votes to McCain/Palin
(closest prediction gets 1 point; ties split)

247                        178

State Win Map (number correct/51 for up to 1 point)
(Note: For Nebraska, 3/5 will be considered a win; for Maine, we'll sub popular vote in the event of a 2-2 tie)

Ben's map:



Jason's map:



Date and hour NBC/MSNBC calls the race
(closest prediction gets 1 point; ties split)

11:00 PM EST, Tuesday, November 4, 2008. 

11:00 PM EST.  "On the dot," he says.

CONGRESS

New House breakdown (1 point)

DEM:  251
GOP:  183
(Dem gain of 15 seats)

DEM:  248
GOP:  187

New Senate breakdown (1 point)

DEM 55
GOP: 46
Other: 2
(Dem gain of 6 seats)

DEM:  57
GOP:  41
Other:  2

OTHER RACES

11 Contested Governor's races (the number correct/11 for up to 1 point):

No net change.

Dems win in WA, MT, MO, WV, NC, DE, NH. GOP wins in UT, ND, IN, VT.

Percentage of the popular vote that Gregoire (D) wins or loses by in Washington State (closest prediction gets 1 point; ties split):

49.8%                    51.3%

Percentage of the popular vote that Rossi (R) wins or loses by in Washington State (closest prediction gets 1 point; ties split):

48.9.%                    48.7.%

OCTOBER SURPRISES

Will Osama bin Laden release a message? (Yes/No, worth 1 point)

Yes.                       No.

Will the U.S. or Israel attack on Iran (Yes/No, worth 1 point):

No.                        No.

Presidential or Vice Presidential candidate removed from ticket or incapacitated (Yes/No, worth 1 point):

No.                      Yes. 

WILDCARD

Any additional electoral or political prediction.
(Predicted event must occur by Midnight on Election Night)
(Worth 1 point)

(NOTE:  the perils of late-night blogging.  I give you my original answer -- not the one I was thinking of in an earlier draft -- sorry, Jason.)

Liddy Dole loses Senate race.

Bill Clinton is named as an emissary to the Middle- and Far-East. 

Rick Davis resigns or is fired from McCain campaign.

TOTAL POSSIBLE POINTS: 15

I really wimped out on that Wildcard, huh? 

And in my defense, I still think this thing could tighten up over the weekend.  We'll see, right?

Finally, this reminder: remember -- this is just two guys being goofy unless you go vote. 

The Picture in State House District 69; Go Fitz Go!

Update:

Keith was one of the speakers introducing Senator Obama in Sarasota. 

"Fear strikes out." 

What a great day for the 12,500 people in Ed Smith Stadium.  And America.

# # # #

A couple of days ago, I told you about an article in the Sarasota Herald-Tribune by Tiffany Lankes which discussed the high level of dishonest sleaze being leveled at Keith Fitzgerald in District 69.  If you haven't visited WeDeserveHonesty.com and signed the petition urging Laura Benson to stop her campaign of lies, then please do so today.

Today in Sarasota Barack Obama is in town, and it looks like it's going to be a hell fo a crowd.

Keith will be down there with Obama and that crowd of thousands.  It's going to be a great event.  

There's some news out today -- again from Tiffany Lankes, who has really brought her A-game, in the Herald-Tribune -- which should give you a pretty good compare and contrast between Keith and his opponent.  The first looks at their stance on education.

Republican Laura Benson served for four years on the Sarasota County School Board, and Democrat Keith Fitzgerald is a political science professor at New College.

The two main candidates in the House District 69 race are both campaigning on education, which they say will be a top priority when the state Legislature convenes next spring.

[snip]

Benson, the Republican, says that instead of putting more money into education, the state needs to give school districts more authority on how they spend their dollars.

The bold is mine, because... what?  Her quote to back this up will leave you scratching your head:

"It's not how much money you put into it," she said. "It's what you spend your money on."

Florida consistently ranks as one of the lowest states in spending per pupil.  Laura Benson's big solution to this unconscionable problem?  Spend less!  Hey Laura -- I've got a suggestion.  How about we spend nothing at all!  Perfect!  That'll solve the problem of things like being dead-last in graduation rates in the nation.

Keith, on the other hand, actually has a plan.    

Fitzgerald, the incumbent, is a Democrat who thinks the state needs to look for ways to raise more money for schools -- possibly with a cigarette tax -- and reform the Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test so it includes a critical thinking component.

Fitzgerald's education ideas have won him an endorsement from the Sarasota Classified/Teachers Association. Board member Shirley Brown is one of his contributors.

We've heard a lot about change versus more of the same in this election -- usually coming from the top of the ticket.  But if this piece about the differences Keith Fitzgerald and Laura Benson have on accountability in education doesn't sum up the need for change, nothing does:

Benson: Believes Florida can continue to address the achievement gap by monitoring student test performance among different groups of children.

Fitzgerald: Supports using bonus money to reward teachers who work in low-income schools, as opposed to rewarding money based on FCAT scores.

He also believes Florida needs to address factors outside of the school system that affect learning. One of his proposals is to use growth management policies that encourage integration in urban areas so that students with the most challenges are not concentrated in the same areas.

Keith Fitzgerald: let's think about creative ways to improve accountability and tie it to our neighborhoods and communities. 

Laura Benson: Hey, whatever it is we're doing is cool. 

Hey, isn't it nice to talk about, you know, issues for a change?  I think so.

But Tiffany is really doing her homework.  She has laid out this whole "Green Party" candidate thing very nicely:  Names on ballots surprise Greens.

Yeah, no kidding.  

No one in Florida's Green Party had heard of Horacio Lemus IV until his name showed up as a candidate for their party on the ballot in this year's District 69 House election.

Lemus, 21, was not the only surprise candidate. In four other closely contested state races, unknown twenty-somethings turned up as Green candidates without that party's knowledge or endorsement.

The five candidates received just enough in contributions to pay the qualifying fees, with some of the money coming from Republican donors. But they are not campaigning and are dodging inquiries from reporters and political parties.

I guess when you're running status quo GOP career politicians in races they're destined to lose, you'll do or say anything -- anything -- to get elected.  Once again, the bold is mine.  

And if you think I'm a partisan hack who is making crap up, here's what the GOP as well as Mr. Lemus had to say about these possibly fraudulent activities:

The state Republican Party did not return calls for comment. Lemus also could not be reached.

I think we can agree that their silence speaks volumes. 

And if you're still not convinced, just follow the money:

Lemus collected $2,010 in contributions, including $10 he gave himself. The rest came in $500 donations from four other contributors, two of which have ties to Republicans. He has not raised any money since June 20, the day he qualified.

One of those contributions came from R & J Center Court, LLC, a company created in January by local Republican leader Bob Waechter.

Waechter said he could not remember if he gave any money to Lemus' campaign but said it would not be unusual for him to give money to a candidate who was not a Republican if he thought the person would be good for office. "If I meet somebody who's running for office and I don't think it will hurt the Republicans, I will make a donation," he said. "I give a lot of money."

R & J Center Court, LLC also made a $5,000 contribution to Floridians for Conservative Values, a group that pays for election ads and also received money from the state GOP.

Another contributor was Louis Betz and Associates, a lobbying group. Louis Betz, its manager, is registered as a Republican.

I'm sure Waechter thought that this guy no one ever heard of, who has never talked to a reporter, who has not raised any other money for his "campaign," was just the guy for the job.

Keith said it better than I have:

"If you believe in the political process in this country, I don't know how you get to the place where you put up a phony candidate," Fitzgerald said. "It's disappointing." 

Let's show this crew that dirty tricks won't work.  There are plenty of long-time Republicans out there who aren't believing Laura Benson's and the RPOF's filthy hype.  Let's work together to show them that we're right on issues, and that we deserve leaders who want to work hard for us and work with us for a better, stronger Florida.

Go Fitz Go!

Amazing Rays

I am not the world's biggest sports fan.  As a little kid, I played soccer.  And when I got bored with that, I tried baseball.  I wasn't ever very good at sports.  I ran some track in high school, but I lacked the stamina to run distance, the speed to run sprints. 

I tried a little baseball in college, and when I was at Curry College in Boston, it was kind of fun as a goof.  They didn't take it too seriously, anyway.  Then I transferred to Arkansas State, where they did take it seriously. 

I remember watching baseball with my Great-Uncle Stell at his house with my little brother.  He was hard to distract when his beloved Cardinals played. 

Anyway, I've always been a fair-weather fan.  I liked Boston for a short time when I was there.  Then for a long time -- and still, in some respects -- the Orioles, mostly because of the great Cal Ripken.  The ironman's record is still my favorite in all of sports. 

I honestly didn't give the Rays much thought when we moved down here.  But we had started kind of a fun tradition for my birthday a few years ago of going to baseball games.  It's a fun, sort of Americana thing to do.  We saw the Washington Nationals, and that was neat because they were relatively new. 

We saw the Rays twice this year.  And towards the middle of the season or so -- fair weather fan that I am -- I found myself rooting for them. 

It's been a crappy year, gang.  I have to tell you that.  Things have not really gone our way very much.  And it's been a tough campaign season.  So I was pleased to note that the Rays did more than provide some passing entertainment for me -- the Rays, and indeed baseball itself, really saved Duncan, I think.  When you're heavy into politics, you need something to distract you.  You need something you can invest something else of yourself into. 

Baseball was it -- and the Rays embodied the best of it. 

Our Rays lost the World Series tonight to the Phillies.  But it's okay, because they came farther than anyone thought they would.  They were a remarkable story that lasted all summer.  It was a story we desperately needed, and we thank them for it.

So thanks, Tampa Bay Rays.  You guys were there for us.  So get some rest this winter, then keep an eye out, because we'll be there for you, cheering you on next season -- all summer long.

Who wouldn't want to see this team take another shot?  Besides.  I think they can go the distance.  I can't wait. 

Alert! Early Voting Expanded in Florida

From Steve Schale, the Florida State Director for Obama:

Gov. Charlie Crist has just declared "a state of emergency" in Florida, due to the overwhelming number of Floridians eager to cast their votes early.

That's why yesterday he issued an executive order to dramatically expand early voting.

Effective immediately, every early voting site in the state will be open from 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. through Friday, October 31st, and for a total of 12 hours between 7:00 a.m. on Saturday, November 1st, and 7:00 p.m. on Sunday, November 2nd.

The bold is his.  Visit VotefoChange.com to find out more.

Certain locations may not be open on Sunday. If you have questions about weekend hours at your nearest location or anything else, please call 1-877-235-6226, or contact your county's Supervisor of Elections

Get out there and vote now if you haven't already. 

Q & A: A Two-fer on Article Two, Electors and Justices

Ed. Note: Today's edition of We Answer Your Political Questions is a two-fer.  Both have answers rooted in Article Two of the U.S. Constitution.

Let's take a look:

Dear Spencerian Editors:

What is the law associated with replacing a Supreme Court Justice between an a election and the inauguration. i.e If for example John Paul Stevens should die between November 4th and the inauguration of  a new president could Bush make a speedy recess appointment against the advice of the President elect i.e Obama?

I understand that that a recess appointed Justice can only sit until the next sitting Senate but is there anything preventing Bush from appointing a strict constructionist / conservative to the bench and then the court decide to rush a review and a ruling over turning Roe vs Wade? I realise very little chance but but piped my interest as perhaps should a tragedy like this occur it would it present Bush with a opportunity to rehabilitate his currently disastrously negative legacy?

With thanks,

Graham D.

Dear Graham: 

Fantastic question.  Thanks for asking.  

I've said a number of times on this very blog that I think one of the worst legacies George W. Bush leaves us with will be the neocon bottom-feeders who will dwell in our nation's capitol for years and years to come.

A recess appointment to the Supreme Court would be the rotten cherry on top of that sickening cake.  

First of all, let's hope that this scenario doesn't in any way play out.  I covered Esquire's endorsement of Obama on these pages, and they had it exactly right:

John Paul Stevens was born on April 20, 1920, into a family of hotel magnates in the city of Chicago who, when Stevens was still young, lost everything in the Great Depression. In 1936, when John Paul Stevens was a student at the University of Chicago Laboratory School and preparing to enter the University of Chicago proper, Barack Hussein Obama Sr. was born on the shores of Lake Victoria in Kenya. In 1941, when John Paul Stevens was graduating Phi Beta Kappa and preparing to go and break Japanese naval codes and help shoot down Admiral Yamamoto in the South Pacific, Ann Dunham was born in Fort Leavenworth in Kansas. In 1961, when John Paul Stevens was practicing law, Barack Obama and Ann Dunham married and had a son, whom they also named Barack Hussein Obama. In 1975, when President Gerald Ford named John Paul Stevens to replace William O. Douglas on the United States Supreme Court, the elder Obama was long gone and the younger Obama was a freshman at the Punahou School in Honolulu. In January of 2009, if and when Barack Obama is inaugurated as the forty-fourth president of the United States, Associate Justice John Paul Stevens will be closing in on his thirty-fourth year on the Court and his eighty-ninth year on earth. And there, really, you have it. The best argument for the election of Barack Obama as president of the United States iswritten quite clearly in the peaks and squiggles of John Paul Stevens's EKG.

So here's to your good health, Justice Stevens. 

But let me answer your first question, with respect to the law governing appointments.  You want to look up Article 2, Section 2, Clause 3 in the U.S. Constitution.  It says:

The President shall have power to fill up all Vacancies that may happen during the Recess of the Senate, by granting Commissions which shall expire at the End of their next Session.

It's pretty clear.

Now, with respect to the second part of your question -- Bush doesn't have to take the advice of Obama.  Obama, not being sworn in between Election Day and Inauguration Day, would have no power here.  Sure, it'd be nice if Bush checked in with him, but the odds of that are about as good as me rooting for the Phillies to win the World Series (Let's go Rays!).  

Anyway, Bush is a guy with a legacy on his mind.  And right now that legacy is circling the commode.  He is also a guy who has done nothing but play to "the base."  So if our nightmare scenario were to play out, we could guess that he'd do everything he could to appoint -- via recess, sure -- some idealogue so right wing, he'd make Scalia look like Ted Kennedy.  If there was even a chance they could overturn Roe v. Wade, he'd do it. 

That being said, I believe there are some procedural techniques that Harry Reid and the Senate -- the Democratic-lead Senate -- could employ, here.  First, a recess appointment requires the Senate to be in recess.  

What if they weren't?  Reid could just call them into a special session.

Also -- and here's where I have to give credit to some moderates on the other side -- I'm not so sure that Republicans like Orrin Hatch and Arlen Specter would necessarily approve of a recess appointment to the court.  Granted, they're both pro-life, but I think they appreciate the larger implications of the appointment of what would amount to a temporary Associate Justice just to overturn some established laws, like Roe.

Look, Graham -- I'm not going to tell you that your scenario is not possible.  It is.  But it seems, as you say, a slim chance.  Our best hope is to elect Obama in a week, and make it to January 20, 2009.  We'll all sleep a lot better then.

Part Two

Dear Spencerian Editors:

About the US presidential election process:  if the number of representatives in the house is supposed to change according to the population, shouldn't the number of votes in the electoral college change as well?

And wouldn’t it be more accurate (and fair) if the electoral votes were distributed proportionally according to each state’s election results instead of a winner-take-all votes procedure?  Has this ever been brought up or is it “uninteresting” to whichever party is in command?

Thanks,

Albert D.
New York, NY

Dear Albert:

Thanks for your very good question as well.

Let me try the short answers first:  Yes, yes, and yes (to the "uninteresting" part on your last question).

Once again, we are guided byArticle II of the U.S. Constitution, Clause 2, which discusses choosing electors.  

Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress: but no Senator or Representative, or Person holding an Office of Trust or Profit under the United States, shall be appointed an Elector.

Hm.  Well, actually, it looks like the Electors are in direct proportion to the number of Senators and Representatives -- equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives... 

With regards to the "winner-take-all" question, I agree there, too, I suppose -- remember that Maine and Nebraska break their up to a degree. 

But I have to tell you, Albert, I disagree with the larger premise.  The Electoral College is a failure.  I think Election 2000 proved that.  Don't you?  If we'd run this thing like common sense tells us to run it -- looking at the popular vote -- in 2000, we'd have been talking about a President Gore, by more than half-a million votes. 

I agree that once leaders get in office, they tend to overlook things like election reform, something we need desperately in this country.  One of my hopes for a President Obama is that he will draw a lesson from his uneccessarily bruising primary season and think about how to change the system entirely.

The National Archives has a really good FAQ on the Electoral College you'll want to check out, too.

Stop the Negative Attacks: Tell Laura Benson We Deserve Honesty

Yesterday I encouraged you to visit WeDeserveHonesty.com, watch the ad from Angela -- Keith Fitzgerald's wife -- and sign the petition telling Laura Benson to stop the negativity and liesabout Keith's' record.

Today, Tiffany Lankes at the Sarasota Herald-Tribune makes the case even better than I did:  Ad blitz flooding District 69 mailboxes; Benson goes on attack in her effort to unseat Fitzgerald. 

Republican state House candidate Laura Benson has kicked off an aggressive campaign attacking her opponent, Rep. Keith Fitzgerald, one of the few local Democrats who holds office.

Benson lost to Fitzgerald by 1,051 votes in 2006, and her strategy for the rematch has flooded local mailboxes with negative messages about the incumbent.

Because this is what we need right now: negative attacks.

Benson says she stands behind the ads. "It's politics," said Benson, 46. "You have to have a very thick skin to do it. If you don't, you have no business being in it."

Yeah, politics.  There's a difference between politics and lying, Laura.

Speaking of lying, here's Laura, at it again:

Benson, who served on the Sarasota County School Board for four years, takes credit for raising teacher salaries and putting technology in the classroom, things paid for by a special property tax approved by voters. Benson was the only board member to oppose putting the tax before voters (Benson says her vote was against the tax rate -- she wanted a lower one).

The president of the Sarasota Classified/Teachers Association says that vote was Benson playing politics.

"All of those things in the mail now, they're just a bunch of sound bites," said Pat Gardner, president of the union, which has endorsed Fitzgerald.

"The truth is, Laura had nothing to do with most of those things. She is just trying to win the election."

She ought to be ashamed of herself.  But I doubt she is.  The lies and deceptions continue.

Besides labeling him a "career politician," Benson says Fitzgerald voted to give welfare benefits to illegal aliens. That is based on his vote to provide health insurance to low-income children, regardless of citizenship.

First of all, Keith Fitzgerald ran for office in 2006 -- and won.  Laura Benson has been running for office for at least six years.  Who's really the career politician?

WeDeserveHonesty.com addresses the tax issue nicely:

I have been asked in dozens of candidate forums if I support an income tax here in the state of Florida, and I have consistently answered no. In a recent mailer, my opponent claims I raised my hand at a September 22, 2008 League of Women Voters forum to show support for a state income tax. That is FALSE. Consistent with every other forum and written communication I have had on this topic, I answered “no”. And I did not raise my hand. Pat Price, the head of the local League of Women Voters, is on record as to what happened at the forum and backs up my claim. The photo in the mailer is one of me on the floor of the state house raising my hand in discussion of a bill.

So why is Laura making crap up?  Remember: she'll say anything to get elected. 

Keith is not that kind of politician.  It's why he started WeDeserveHonesty.com -- to set the record straight. 

Sign the petition.  Let's stop dishonest attacks, and keep a leader in the state legislature.

Take Action: We Deserve Honesty

As you know, I'm a big supporter of Representative Keith Fitzgerald down in District 69.

In 2006, he and his campaign manager, Duncan (my wife), ran one hell of a race, and won in a predominantly Republican district.  He won despite the fact that they ran a very nasty campaign against him, at one point saying he was going to shred the fabric of democracy, or something along those lines.  Keith responded by running a clean campaign, talking about the issues, and about what he was going to do in Tallahassee.   

This made the Republicans very, very angry.

So this time around, they have decided to run Keith's opponent from last time, Laura Benson, again.

And they're using pretty much the same playbook.  Nasty, personal attacks that are grossly unfair and remarkably far from true.  And they're going to have spent nearly a million bucks to do it.  

The Pelican Press has a pretty good article on just how awful this has been: Benson campaign turns ugly.  

They launched a remarkably obscene web site a week or so ago, but since they pirated the copyrighted code from Keith's current site, they had to take it down.  Well, now they've re-launced it.

That's okay.  

Keith has a site which responds -- but responds appropriately.  

Check it out:  WeDeserveHonesty.com

Some people are willing to say anything to get elected. I’m not. Believe it or not, after two years in Tallahassee, I still care about the truth. In fact, I care about it more than ever. Anybody can run a sleazy, negative campaign. What takes more guts is NOT to. I still run a positive campaign. The people of this district chose me over Laura Benson in 2006, despite an onslaught of her vulgar ads distorting my views and positions. It did not work for her then. And with your help, it won’t work for her now either.

We've seen at lot of nastiness in this campaign -- from the top of the ticket on down to races like Keith's.

Every Floridian ought to be proud of Keith.  It'd be real easy for him to go on the attack.  In fact, it's tempting.  But that's not what the the people of District 69 -- or Americans -- want or need.  They want their politicians to engage in a dialogue about their differences, and they need them to find solutions to the real problems they're facing today. 

So go visit the site.  And after you watch that fantastic ad starring Keith's wife, Angela, do me a favor: sign the petition urging Laura Benson to stop these despicable smears against Keith.  Then forwarded it to your friends.  

Let's stand up for honest and decent politicians like Keith.  After all, he stands up for us.    

"Let's do more than honor and miss our friend today."

The quote is from Senator Durbin of Illinois, in a video commemorating the memory of the late Senator Paul Wellstone, who died six years ago today.

I write a lot about how we need better public servants.

Like Paul Wellstone.

Keep fighting.

Thanks, MyDD.

Political Newsclippings, Issue 71, Vol. II: Bachmann Vanden Heuvel Overdrive, Ruben's Imaginary World, Will Write Politics for Food, and More

When insane Congresswoman Michele Bachmann went all Joe McCarthy on Chris Matthews' show, the sane guest he had on for balance was Katrina Vanden Heuvel of The Nation, a magazine you should read.  Here is Katrina's response on their site: After Hardball.  She talks about some of the supportive emails she got after her very appropriate reaction, and she talks about the negative politics that is so pervasive out there.

Since then, the backlash to Bachmann's (and McCain-Palin's) politics of fear and loathing and demonization, division and distraction is reason for hope, and it also looks as though it might lead to this right-wing ideologue's well-deserved defeat in November.

Here's hoping.

# # # #

Does Ruben Navarrette, Jr. even live in the same universe as the rest of us?

I... thought the Democratic Party was supposed to go to bat for the little guy, the everyday Joe the Plumber.

Tell that to Joe Wurzelbacher, the Ohio resident who got his 15 minutes -- and 40 lashes -- because he dared question Obama about his tax plan. Obama insists that the plan would raise taxes only on those Americans earning more than $250,000 per year. It was then Obama made his clumsy "spread the wealth" comment.

First of all, didn't it turn out that Joe the Plumber was, um, kind of crazy?  Ruben himself admits in the article that Joe owes back taxes.  Second, someone is going to have to explain why "spreading the wealth" is a negative.  Isn't that the entire point of taxes? 

Ruben goes on.  Unfortunately.

McCain oversold it when he said Palin was the most qualified vice presidential candidate in recent history. Better than Dick Cheney? Could she be worse?

Um.  Yes.

Then there is the faux-scandal that the Republican National Committee shelled out $150,000 in the past several weeks on Palin and her family for campaign wardrobe, accessories, makeup, etc.

Many Americans don't see why it's a story. Fellow hockey mom Page Growney of New Canaan, Conn., asked The Associated Press, "What did you want to see her in, a turtleneck from L.L. Bean?"

That's right, Ruben.  When it's John Edwards billing himself as a populist and then getting a $400 haircut (outrageous, yes), your side loses their minds.  When it's your side bills themselves as Joe Six Pack, or Joe the Plumber, or Joe whoever, and then they drop six figures at the department store, it's Hey, what's the big deal?  No dice, Ruben.  You're a two time Harvard grad.  You know better than that.  Shame on you.

# # # #

You can almost see the tear stains on Charles Krauthammer's endorsement of John McSame. 

Honestly, I wonder how some of these folks actually get synicated columns.

# # # #

Eugene Robinson has a must-read on what life might be like post-election. 

That's righ, dear readers.  This election will be over soon. 

Wait a minute.  What in the hell are Gene and I going to write about?

# # ##

Betty Cracker has gotten the World Series down to the sandwich level.

Let's go Rays!  And Cuban sandwiches (though who doesn't love a good cheesesteak?).

# # # # 

Yeah, it's me, but over at The Buchanan Record, read about how Vern -- get this -- is planning to run for higher office. 

No.  Seriously.

# # # #

Please remember, Floridians: Vote NO on 2.

 -- More soon --

What, No 'Laverne & Shirley' Reference?

Great.  Now "Rock Around the Clock" will be stuck in my head until Election Day.

It's a Numbers Game: Two Weeks Out

Gallup Daily Tracking: Obama 52%, McCain 41%.

Gallup Daily Tracking Early Voting: Already Voted 8%, Plan to Vote Early 21%.

Pew Research Center: Doubts Grow About McCain's Judgment, Age and Campaign.

Washington Post/ABC News: Obama Leads Among the Young and the Landline-less.  Obama is 12 points up among white voters under 30.

Charlie Cook: Back to Back GOP Train Wrecks.

Real Clear Politics Florida: Obama +2.

Real Clear Politics North Carolina: Obama +1.5.

Real Clear Politics General Election: Obama +6.9.

Five Thirty Eight: Toddlers Put McCain Over the Top!

Five Thirty Eight Electoral Vote: Obama 344, McCain 194.

Sarasota's Big Political Weekend

It was a good weekend for politics down in Sarasota.  First, we attended the Women for Obama event over at the Ringling bridge.  They had quite a turnout.  The Herald-Tribune caught this video footage:

We did some sign-waving for Keith, and got a lot of good response.

Later that evening, the Sarasota Democratic Club and the Sarasota Democratic Party hosted a greaet dinner, with some pretty heavy-hitting speakers.

First, Keith introduced the keynote speaker, House Minority Leader Dan Gelber (check out his blog entry on the evening here).  Both Keith and Leader Gelber did outstanding.

There was a surprise guest in the audience: Susan Eisenhower, the granddaughter of President Eisenhower.  Last February, Ms. Eisenhower, a Republican, penned an eloquent endorsement of Senator Obama.  It was quite something to have such a prominent Republican featured at a dinner usually held exclusively for Democrats.   

Then we heard from a political and civil rights legend: Congressman John Lewis.  He was just remarkable, and the real reason I thought it was so important to go to this event.  

It was a great speech, and by the time the evening was over, I was -- as they say on the Obama campaign -- fired up and ready to go.

All in all, a really great evening for Democrats and for politics down in Sarasota.

Rays Win! Rays Win! World Series Bound!

The Tampa Bay Rays are the American League Champs!

Bring on the Phillies!

On Endorsements: Esquire & Powell

To be honest with you, I've always thought that when you're running for office, getting the endorsement of a publication -- your hometown newspaper -- was important, but not critical.

On down-ballot races, I suspect there are plenty of folks who, if they like their newspaper, just check the endorsements and vote that way.  There are probably a few, who, if they dislike their hometown fishwrapper, go the other way at the ballot box.

Same thing is kind of true for celebrity endorsements.  If you like Matt Damon, and don't follow politics even a little bit, then maybe you'll vote for Obama because he will.  Or, if you really, really disliked the Bourne series, then maybe you'll go McCain.

Actually, I think things change a little bit at the presidential level. 

Esquire magazine -- a fashionable men's magazine, or a men's fashionable magazine; anyway, it's glossy and nice and the stuff in there is way too cool for me, so that should tell you something -- has come out with a strong endorsement for Barack Obama.

Why am I telling you this?  Because they make a great point:

John Paul Stevens was born on April 20, 1920, into a family of hotel magnates in the city of Chicago who, when Stevens was still young, lost everything in the Great Depression. In 1936, when John Paul Stevens was a student at the University of Chicago Laboratory School and preparing to enter the University of Chicago proper, Barack Hussein Obama Sr. was born on the shores of Lake Victoria in Kenya. In 1941, when John Paul Stevens was graduating Phi Beta Kappa and preparing to go and break Japanese naval codes and help shoot down Admiral Yamamoto in the South Pacific, Ann Dunham was born in Fort Leavenworth in Kansas. In 1961, when John Paul Stevens was practicing law, Barack Obama and Ann Dunham married and had a son, whom they also named Barack Hussein Obama. In 1975, when President Gerald Ford named John Paul Stevens to replace William O. Douglas on the United States Supreme Court, the elder Obama was long gone and the younger Obama was a freshman at the Punahou School in Honolulu. In January of 2009, if and when Barack Obama is inaugurated as the forty-fourth president of the United States, Associate Justice John Paul Stevens will be closing in on his thirty-fourth year on the Court and his eighty-ninth year on earth. And there, really, you have it. The best argument for the election of Barack Obama as president of the United States is written quite clearly in the peaks and squiggles of John Paul Stevens's EKG.

So much is at stake in this election -- and the Supreme Court ought to be right at the top of your list.  The next president is likely to make at least two appointments to the Supreme Court, and maybe more.  A McCain presidency will guarantee you a far-right conservative court for a generation.

The Esquire piece is actually very well written, quite eloquent.  I encourage you to read it. 

But if getting your political advice from a magazine that kind of smells like very expensive men's cologne is not your thing, then try this on for size:  Colin Powell has endorsed Senator Obama.  His endorsement is equally -- perhaps more -- eloquent than Esquire's.

Now, whether you have made your mind up about Obama or not, it is important that you watch the clip of Secretary Powell on Meet The Press. 

Of course, I think Secretary Powell is talking about more than just an endorsement of one candidate over another (although he does clearly endorse Obama).  He's talking about the direction the country has gone with regards to "us versus them" politics.

And he talks about a soldier who gave his life in Iraq.  Twenty years old.

It's important that you hear this story.  I just hope other politicians will listen to it as well.   

Fight the Smears: Stop the Hate Calls

As I said yesterday, some of us apparently live in fake America.  Turns out those in Palin's (and apparently Michele Bachmann's) real America pretty much hate the rest of us.  They are calling everyone and saying so.

From an Obama Action Wire email:

Voters in key battleground states are receiving automated phone calls from John McCain's campaign that are spreading some of the most vile smears of this election.

But these "robocalls" -- and the hate-filled mailers that usually accompany them -- say more about John McCain than they do about Barack.

Be sure and report them if you get any of these calls or mailers.

Shame of John McCain and Sarah Palin.  What a terrible way to wage a campaign.