Jason and I have been discussing politics fairly regularly since 2004, when he was a supporter of the Howard Dean Campaign. We met through our mutual, dear friend Dave, and have continued to carry on a very good, and certainly from my perspective very enlightening conversation (almost exclusively online) about politics. I consider Jason a good friend. He is notably the genius of these buttons, a huge hit at my wedding, one of which I still keep on my desk today, next to a picture of Duncan.
He and I have been following developments in this most important of election years since surprisingly early in 2007. I was a pretty big believer that Edwards would come out on top this time around, and Jason urged me to keep on eye on Obama, a fellow Chicagoan. Those Chicagoans really stick together.
Having witnessed everything in this historic campaign, we came up with an idea that I could not resist discussing here. This is, after all, a political blog, and Jason and I discuss a lot of politics. Since we're almost exactly four weeks out from Election Day, I decided it was time to share. Besides, you might find you benefit from a different perspective.
Needless to say, gambling is illegal. This is about comparing predictions. So why not follow along and see how you stack up?
Jason and I have chosen fifteen questions or predictions under five categories: Presidential, Congress, Other Races, October Surprises, Wildcard. Each prediction is worth one point for a total of fifteen points. There's a Tiebreaker, if we need it. The "ballot," if you will, looks like this.
PRESIDENTIAL
Percentage of Popular Vote Obama/Biden to one decimal point
(closest prediction gets 1 point; ties split)
Percentage of Popular Vote McCain/Palin to one decimal point
(closest prediction gets 1 point; ties split)
Number of Electoral Votes to Obama/Biden
(closest prediction gets 1 point; ties split)
Number of Electoral Votes to McCain/Palin
(closest prediction gets 1 point; ties split)
State Win Map (number correct/51 for up to 1 point)
(Note: For Nebraska, 3/5 will be considered a win; for Maine, we'll sub popular vote in the event of a 2-2 tie)
Date and hour NBC/MSNBC calls the race
(closest prediction gets 1 point; ties split)
CONGRESS
New House breakdown
(closest prediction gets 1 point; ties split)
New Senate breakdown
(closest prediction gets 1 point; ties split)
OTHER RACES
11 Contested Governor's races
(number correct/11 for up to 1 point)
Percentage of the Gregoire (D) popular vote in Washington State
(closest prediction gets 1 point; ties split)
Percentage of the Rossi (R) popular vote in Washington State
(closest prediction gets 1 point; ties split)
OCTOBER SURPRISES
bin Laden Message Release
(Yes/No, worth 1 point)
U.S. or Israel attack on Iran
(Yes/No, worth 1 point)
Presidential or Vice Presidential candidate removed from ticket or incapacitated
(Yes/No, worth 1 point)
WILDCARD
Any additional electoral or political prediction.
(Predicted event must occur by Midnight on Election Night)
(Worth 1 point)
TOTAL POSSIBLE POINTS: 15
TIEBREAKER: Total # of votes for Chuck Baldwin (Constitution Party) in Texas.
(Note: Baldwin is only approved as a write-in candidate in Texas)
And there you have it.
Now I'm not going to give you our predictions in their entirety today. I'll give you a couple, but you have to keep coming back to see more. I'll have them all released before Election Day, so you can follow along and see how Jason and I did.
Let's start with Congress. Here's what I said:
New House breakdown
DEM: 251
GOP: 183
(Dem gain of 15 seats)
New Senate breakdown
DEM 55
GOP: 46
Other: 2
(Dem gain of 6 seats)
All in all, a pretty good night for Congressional Democrats, and Democratic candidates, wouldn't you say?
Now here's Jason's answer:
New House breakdown
DEM: 248
GOP: 187
New Senate breakdown
DEM: 57
GOP: 41
Other: 2
We are both clearly optimists, sure. Of course, Jason is more optimistic than I am on the Senate side, and I remain slightly more optimistic than him on the House side. And here's hoping we're both wrong, and we're both right.
Feel free to play along and email me with your predictions. And watch for more from our Election prognostication special, Viva Las Spencerian.
Comments