In our last installment, we looked at some frightening October Surprises as well as a few Other Races.
Tonight, let's take on the Big Kahuna: The Presidential Race! Woo-hoo! It's good stuff. Follow along, now. Here are my takes:
Percent of the Popular Vote Obama/Biden receive to one decimal point (closest prediction gets 1 point; ties split):
FINAL ANSWER:
51.2%
Percent of the Popular Vote McCain/Palin receive to one decimal point (closest prediction gets 1 point; ties split):
FINAL ANSWER:
48.4%
This projection is the culmination of a theory I’ve been working on nearly since Obama clinched the nomination (finally) from Hillary Clinton, which seems forever ago, like a strange dream from which I’m glad I woke up. The theory is that this was never going to be that close of a race, especially with John McCain. After all, what was McCain’s appeal, aside from (ostensibly) the war hero thing? He made a tactical error in naming Sarah Palin to the ticket, a person attractive to the far right fringe, but ultimately unattractive to thinking voters. Or pretty much anyone with a pulse. So I believe that Obama , being more or less consistently ahead in the polls, pulls away in the final days, and with big wins in population centers like New York, California, but also Nevada and Michigan and Pennsylvania, he pulls fairly strongly ahead in the popular vote.
Let's take a look at Jason's projection:
Percentage of the Popular Vote Obama/Biden receive to one decimal point (closest prediction gets 1 point; ties split):
FINAL ANSWER: 51.9%
Percentage of the Popular Vote McCain/Palin receive to one decimal point (closest prediction gets 1 point; ties split):
FINAL ANSWER: 47.9%
Here is what Jason had to say on this: "Between the enthusiasm gap and the Obama ground game, I think the popular vote will be the farthest apart in years, but still relatively close. Big numbers in urban strongholds will really push Obama’s numbers up. Clinton never broke 50% in either of his bids, so this really will be a big psychological shift for the country."
Isn't it interesting to see how close we are on this?
Let's try this one. It's the number of Electoral Votes. Here's my take:
Number of Electoral Votes to Obama/Biden (closest prediction gets 1 point; ties split):
FINAL ANSWER:
291
Number of Electoral Votes to McCain/Palin (closest prediction gets 1 point; ties split)
FINAL ANSWER:
247
Once again I am in essence calling this the most decisive election we’ve seen since 1996 when Clinton simply trounced Bob Dole. It’s not as decisive as it maybe could be, sure, but more so than ’04, and certainly more so than ’00.
Here's what Jason goes with:
Number of Electoral Votes to Obama/Biden (closest prediction gets 1 point; ties split):
FINAL ANSWER:
360
Number of Electoral Votes to McCain/Palin (closest prediction gets 1 point; ties split)
FINAL ANSWER:
178
Wow, bold stuff.
Okay, here's a good one. It's the Electoral Map. I'll just list out who wins what states. Here's mine:
OBAMA/BIDEN
Maine
New Hampshire
Vermont
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New Jersey
New York
Delaware
Maryland
Washington, DC
Pennsylvania
Virginia
Michigan
Minnesota
Illinois
Wisconsin
Iowa
Colorado
New Mexico
Washington
Oregon
California
Nevada
Hawaii
McCAIN/PALIN
Florida
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
West Virginia
Ohio
Indiana
Kentucky
Texas
Louisiana
Mississippi
Alabama
Tennessee
Arkansas
Missouri
Oklahoma
Kansas
Nebraska
North Dakota
South Dakota
Arizona
Utah
Wyoming
Idaho
Montana
Alaska
Am I ashamed that I put Florida in the McCain/Palin column? Yes. Yes, I am. Very ashamed. Am I ashamed to put Arkansas there? Missouri? Nebraska? West Virginia? North Carolina? You betcha.
Here's Jason's map:
OBAMA/BIDEN
Florida
North Carolina
West Virginia
Ohio
Indiana
Maine
Vermont
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New Jersey
New York
Delaware
Maryland
Washington, DC
Pennsylvania
Virginia
Michigan
Minnesota
Illinois
Wisconsin
Iowa
Colorado
New Mexico
Washington
Oregon
California
Hawaii
McCAIN/PALIN
New Hampshire
South Carolina
Georgia
Kentucky
Texas
Louisiana
Mississippi
Alabama
Tennessee
Arkansas
Missouri
Oklahoma
Kansas
Nebraska
North Dakota
South Dakota
Arizona
Utah
Wyoming
Idaho
Montana
Alaska
Nevada
Okay. So Jason is more bold than I am. And hell, he will probably be more welcome in Florida than I will be after election day.
And now, our last question:
Date and hour NBC/MSNBC calls the race (closest prediction gets 1 point; ties split):
FINAL ANSWER:
11:00 PM EST, Tuesday, November 4, 2008.
Jason says:
11:00 PM EST. "On the dot," he says.
Hey, we agree.
I'll give you the full ballot and our respective predictions each soon. Keep watching.
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