Well, here it is: my concession. If you've been following along on Viva Las Spencerian, you know that my friend Jason and I made some predictions regarding Election 2008.
Let me put it this way: 2008 was a good year for Chicagoans. Jason has won in a gracious manner and has said the results speak for themselves. He's right.
I, on the other hand, would prefer to use every opportunity to explain my loss away. Also, it's my blog, so I can sort of do what I want.
Anyway, here are our answers. Mine are in bolded red, Jason's are in bolded blue, the final answers are in bold green.
PRESIDENTIAL
Percentage of Popular Vote Obama/Biden to one decimal point
(closest prediction gets 1 point; ties split)
51.2% 51.9% 52.
Ben's Commentary:
1 point to Jason. This is a recurring theme you'll see throughout our predictions here at Viva Las Spencerian! The simple truth is, I thought that the race would tighten up considerably in the last days and weeks of the campaign. It didn't really -- or at least not as much as I thought it might. For which I'm very glad.
Percentage of Popular Vote McCain/Palin to one decimal point
(closest prediction gets 1 point; ties split)
48.4% 47.9% 46.2% (per FiveThirtyEight.com). DailyKos has 46.1%.
Ben's Commentary:
1 point to Jason. Let me remind you that Jason and I made these predictions independent of one another. You'll note we're actually fairly close, here. How is it we got close on the popular vote percentage and so off on our maps? Good question. I thought that we'd see something a lot more resembling a hybrid of Election 2000, in which Gore won the popular vote, and Election 2004, in which Kerry didn't. I was -- are you seeing a theme here? -- wrong.
Number of Electoral Votes to Obama/Biden
(closest prediction gets 1 point; ties split)
291 360 365.
Ben's Commentary:
1 point to Jason. Hey. You. Yeah, you -- Spencerian reader: you stop laughing at me. Oh, it's easy to Monday morning quarterback it now, isn't it? You weasel.
We did these several weeks before the Election, I'd like to remind you. I wanted Obama to go over the 300 mark on Electoral Votes, I really did. You know how hard that was to commit to? Really, really hard.
Dangit.
Number of Electoral Votes to McCain/Palin
(closest prediction gets 1 point; ties split)
247 178 173.
1 point to Jason. Just awesome.
State Win Map (number correct/51 for up to 1 point)
(Note: For Nebraska, 3/5 will be considered a win; for Maine, we'll sub popular vote in the event of a 2-2 tie)
Ben's map:
Jason's map:
1 point to Jason. Okay. Let me say this. I am proud that I was right on Nevada and New Hampshire and that Jason was wrong. I had a feeling about North Carolina -- my birth state -- and if only I'd stuck with it, I'd at least have been a little more right than not.
But who could've seen Indiana?
Apparently Jason, that's who.
Now let me explain one more thing: Florida. Yes. I predicted Obama would lose Florida. Yes. Steve Schale, Obama's genius Florida state Director hired my wife for her first gig, working as campaign manager for Keith Fitzgerald.
Yes. I am an idiot. A huge, giant idiot.
Steve wrote me a little note upon reviewing our predictions on Viva Las Spencerian! (Steve reads this blog!), and properly chastised me.
Deservedly so.
Mea culpa, Steve.
I don't have a very good explanation except for this: one, I thought our pathetic and awful Amendment 2 would drive out GOP turnout, and two, once I'd written off Florida (foolishly), I thought it would be a neat trick if he could pull it off without Florida and Ohio.
I mentioned I'm an idiot, right?
Date and hour NBC/MSNBC calls the race
(closest prediction gets 1 point; ties split)
11:00 PM EST, Tuesday, November 4, 2008.
11:00 PM EST. "On the dot," he says.
I thought I caught MSNBC call it right at 11:00 PM. Call this a split?
Ben's Commentary:
1 point to Jason. 1 point to Ben. Duncan and I were at Marina Jack in Sarasota, and thought I was distracted trying to get results for Keith's race, I think I recall it was 11:00 exactly when MSNBC called it.
CONGRESS
New House breakdown (1 point)
DEM: 251
GOP: 183
(Dem gain of 15 seats)
DEM: 248
GOP: 187
DEM: 255
GOP: 174
Ben's Commentary:
1 point to Ben. It's the one bright spot in this entire thing for me.
New Senate breakdown (1 point)
DEM 55
GOP: 46
Other: 2
(Dem gain of 6 seats)
DEM: 57
GOP: 41
Other: 2
Okay, Jason's going to get this one,
but only because I somehow thought there were 103 Senators (I didn't --
I just added wrong. Meant to say 43 for the GOP.)
Besides, I have a feeling Franken may go our way, and that'll put Jason
closest on the Dem side, and he's already closest on the GOP side.
Ben's Commentary:
1 point to Jason.
OTHER RACES
11 Contested Governor's races (the number correct/11 for up to 1 point):
No net change.
Dems win in WA, MT, MO, WV, NC, DE, NH. GOP wins in UT, ND, IN, VT.
Ben's Commentary:
1 point to Jason.
Percentage
of the popular vote that Gregoire (D) wins or loses by in Washington
State (closest prediction gets 1 point; ties split):
49.8% 51.3% 53% (Per DailyKos)
Ben's Commentary:
1 point to Jason.
Percentage
of the popular vote that Rossi (R) wins or loses by in Washington State
(closest prediction gets 1 point; ties split):
48.9.% 48.7.% 47%
Ben's Commentary:
1 point to Jason.
What am I, from Washington State?
OCTOBER SURPRISES
Will Osama bin Laden release a message? (Yes/No, worth 1 point)
Yes. No. No. (technically it wasn't OBL, it was Al Qaeda that released a message).
Ben's Commentary:
1 point to Jason.
Will the U.S. or Israel attack on Iran (Yes/No, worth 1 point):
No. No. No.
Ben's Commentary:
1 point to Jason. 1 point to Ben.
Presidential or Vice Presidential candidate removed from ticket or incapacitated (Yes/No, worth 1 point):
No. Yes. No.
Ben's Commentary:
1 point to Ben. If only I'd been wrong on this one. Hell, on all of them.
WILDCARD
Any additional electoral or political prediction.
(Predicted event must occur by Midnight on Election Night)
(Worth 1 point)
(NOTE:
the perils of late-night blogging. I give you my original answer --
not the one I was thinking of in an earlier draft -- sorry, Jason.)
Liddy Dole loses Senate race.
Bill Clinton is named as an emissary to the Middle- and Far-East. Rick Davis resigns or is fired from McCain campaign. None of the above. Zero?
TOTAL POSSIBLE POINTS: 15
12 for Jason, a meager 4 for me (there were a couple of splits and one "zero").
So again, congratulations, Jason. It's been a hell of a run, and you ought to be proud.
The lesson I learned -- if anyone is curious -- is to trust my gut. I know you may not believe me, dear reader, but my gut was leading me more towards a "Jason-esque" level prediction, and I tempered it. I shouldn't have.
Go with your gut, gang.
Oh, and Jason? It's only two short years until mid-term elections. Let me know when you're ready for a re-match.
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