The only thing worse than a sanctimonious blogger who says "I told you so" is a sanctimonious blogger who didn't tell you so, but thought it anyway (and then sanctimoniously blogged about the whole thing).
Anyway, I knew it from the first whispers: Jeb Bush isn't going to run for Mel Martinez's vacant Senate seat in 2010. I knew he'd bask in the glory of having his name bandied about for the Senate, and then withdraw his name.
And it's not so much that I didn't tell you -- it's that I think someone else is going to run. More my pick, which is counter to the vastly more knowledgeable Kenneth Quinnell, who has some good analysis up, in a minute.
First of all, the Senate is no place for Jeb Bush. Imagine this, if you will. Jeb Bush enters the Senate Chambers in 2010. He is one of a couple of new members of the Senate, putting him near dead-last in terms of seniority. Jeb is also -- we'll presume, hopefully -- in the minority party. Dead last, minority party. Now recall Jeb's tenure -- one might say iron-fisted reign -- as governor. Is that really a good fit? I don't think so.
Second, I've always heard that he has familial issues (ie, his daughter has a history of substance abuse issues and an arrest record). That's not to say that those issues should be brought to the debate or used against him were he to campaign -- but in what would be a high-profile like that, they surely would be. Most readers of this blog likely don't care too much for Jeb Bush. Neither do I. But if even part of his reasoning for not running is that he is putting his family first -- said so often by politicians -- then he deserves our respect for that (grudging though it may be).
Third, he must be making a forture sitting on boards and whatever else it is he does all day. Now, Senators don't do so shabby, and there are fine perks to be had in the U.S. Senate to be sure. But why give up the cash money -- especially in crappy economic times.
Look, the truth is, I didn't blog about this earlier because I thought maybe he'd be lured by the promise of an easy victory and actually jump in. It would've been his mistake.
So next time, I know: blog about it first. Oh, and don't feel too bad, Mustang Bobby. You could've had worse predicitons go the wrong way.
Update
Oh, so my pick on the GOP side, by the way, is Empty Chair Charlie Crist. That's right. Our newlywed governor. Think about it.
He's never held an elected office for much more than a term (someone could check me on that, but I think he served one term in the Florida Senate, he was a one-term Education guy, and one term as AG). He is ambitious, as his fairly embarrassing -- and fruitless -- campaigning to be John McCain's VP proved. And he's angling for VP -- or better -- again in 2012. What better way to raise his national profile than to serve as United States Senator?
I'm not sure what this "vastly more knowledgeable" stuff is all about, but thanks for the shout-out.
Posted by: Kenneth Quinnell | January 06, 2009 at 08:28 PM