As you know, I'm retired from politics, which makes me more like a political speculator.
It's better than a political dabbler.
Anyway, I followed along on several select races in 2008 across the country. It was interesting, because from my perspective, there were a lot of races that Democrats shouldn't have won, and we did -- and some we should have won and didn't. Keep in mind, this is the guy who got taken to school by Jason, and who came in a sorry 9,041 out of 9,493 entered predictions at DailyKos.
For what it's worth, I thought that maybe the Republicans would -- at some point -- get their crap together. They never did, and I was happy to be wrong.
Still, I thought that Darcy Burner's second run at the U.S. House of Representatives in Washington's 8th District would prove successful. I was sad to be wrong on that one, because I think she is smart, and would make a fine Member of Congress.
There is a cautionary tale you should check out over at The American Prospect: Anatomy of a Netroots Failure. Well, Eli Sanders may be playing a little fast and loose with the word "failure." True, Darcy didn't win. But I think her race was helpful in a number of demonstrative ways. It showed the limitations of the "netroots." And it showed that you need to retain a tight hold on your message. And it showed that you need to be tough against your opponent, and ready to respond fast -- and well -- when the crap starts flying from the MSM (and it will).
I might be committing some sort of heresy at this point, but I don't believe that people will win or lose based on an online presence (and I'm not saying that Darcy tried to do that; it's just starting the conversation). Politics will always be about face-to-face contact with voters. It will always be about message discipline and talking to people about who you are, your values, and how you can help them.
It's true: the Internet can help with all of those things -- and more. I think we can all agree that it has revolutionized this process, in fact. But it hasn't changed what candidates must do.
I hope Darcy stays involved in politics. I hope she stays involved in "tech issues." I'm sure she will. And I'm sure we haven't seen the last of her. Let's hope not.

But Darcy only lost by 20,210 votes. It's dangerous to make broad generalizations out of such close results, regardless of the percentage. That variation could be because of the grand explanations that people are talking about, or it could be because of the weather or because the Seahawks were having a bad season. The numbers aren't really big enough to make too much of a grand case out of. Clearly, without the Netroots, Burner gets destroyed in the race. Maybe if her House doesn't burn down she wins the race. Maybe if she ran a third time she wins by 10 percent, it's difficult to generalize based on the data we have.
Posted by: Kenneth Quinnell | March 03, 2009 at 09:37 PM