The Spencerian

Almost Friday Your Future is Predetermined Rant Edition

Wes Clark on behalf of Senator Patty Murray in Washington.

Jen Dillon from the Democratic Party.

Senators John Kerry and Kirsten Gillibrand.

David Axelrod.  Markos Moulitsas.  Jackie Lee from Fair Districts Florida.  The DLCC.  And Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz.

Ashley Walker at the Campaign for Accountability.

The Meek Campaign.

Organizing for America.

The Jim Jackson for School Board campaign.

And Vice President Joe Biden.

Those are the people and places I've gotten emails from in the last 48 hours or so.  Every one of them was about the upcoming election.  Almost all of them were hitting me up for money.

Feel free to click on any of the links above and help out if you can. 

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The thing is, though, it's getting late.  We already have our ballots.  People are voting (which means I'll probably be getting more of those emails, not less).  The gap of undecideds is dwindling, fast, and is likely narrower than we really think based on polling.  

After doing campaigns, I've learned (the hard way) that it's best not to build yourself up to Election Day (an impossible admonition, I know).  It's best to pace yourself.

But this post isn't about that -- it's about the road map that's already plotted out.

I think that Republicans are well on their way to taking over the U.S. House, and they may pull it off on the Senate side, but as of today I'll bet they won't.  Nonetheless, here's the pre-deterimined narrative for the next days and weeks after the election.  

A handful of "tea party" people will have won.  Discussion about their impact will dominate the political news for some time.  

There will be big surprises no one will see coming.  This will be translated into the "does polling work" meme, which is certainly a legitimate question in some ways. 

There will be much discussion about how much of the outcome is a rebuke to Obama and his agenda.  Which will be followed by slightly less noisy discussion of how the economy affected the outcome, how the national mood affected the outcome, the role of race, the role of issues like immigration, the wars, terror, and on and on. 

And that's about it.  My personal prediction (today) is that this election certainly carries the potential to basically disappoint everyone.  It could disappoint Republicans if they don't sweep enough seats.  It could disappoint crazy tea bagger types if they don't get enough of their folks elected (or, subsequently, if their folks are seen as compromised by the GOP, which is inevitable -- more on this in a minute).  Democrats are clearly on-track to be fairly disappointed, too, though there are some who would say they are already disappointed (in Obama, in a centrist agenda, etc.). 

Independents have the potential to be disapointed in another hyperpartisan campaign season, though at this point my usual approach to independents and third-party pushers is what the hell do you expect?  

This is the way it works.  And this final prediction -- it's the way it'll work two years from now, too.

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Two must-reads from Rolling Stone. 

First read the Obama interview.  I got through 99% of the thing thinking, "Man, this ought to be required reading for every disaffected Democrat in the country."

And then I got to the very end, where he walks back into the room and says to Jann Wenner:

We have to get folks off the sidelines. People need to shake off this lethargy, people need to buck up. Bringing about change is hard — that's what I said during the campaign. It has been hard, and we've got some lumps to show for it. But if people now want to take their ball and go home, that tells me folks weren't serious in the first place.

If you're serious, now's exactly the time that people have to step up.

Forget what liberal and progressive activists say -- that's the exact kind of language that I find totally unhelpful.  I think me, and most people like me -- and most people who would consider themselves to the left of me -- think that A.) they are serious already, B.) they have stepped up, and C.) were never on "the sidelines" to begin with. 

And for our efforts have been given the proverbial smack down from the likes of Robert Gibbs and my email buddy, Joe Biden.

And now Obama himself.

I've always had this worry about Obama: that he and his team of very, very smart people have a tendency to overthink it.  Why in the world would any reasonable thinking person believe they could prod me to "shake off this lethargy," to "stop whining" (Biden's quote), to get "drug tested" (Gibb's quote), and then turn around and send me the cheeriest damn email I've ever gotten asking me for cash? 

Let's be clear: I don't have a problem with the governing or even the governing philosophy.  I need not recite the litany of Obama victories again, and I won't -- but they're notable, worthy, and are totally awesome.  I support Obama because he is governing the way I expect and the way I want.    

What I take issue with is the communications piece.

Mr. President, I know you think you're reaching centrist Americans who are tired of both sides arguing.  I know you think the verbal "hippie punching" (to use the progressive term) makes you look like a reasoned, bi-partisan, conciliatory figure.  It doesn't.  It makes you look like an ungrateful bully.

Oh, and don't forget the golden rule of political communication (in which I have my degree): you can only communicate effectively one way at one time.  In other words, while you're sharpening your claws on the backs of the people who got you into office, the other side is getting their message to the American people.

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And by "other side," I mean the tea bagger party whack-a-doos who Matt Taibbi writes about in the other must-read from Rolling Stone.  I practically insist that you read the whole thing.

But there are three sections which stood out for me.  Here's the first:

Scanning the thousands of hopped-up faces in the crowd, I am immediately struck by two things. One is that there isn't a single black person here. The other is the truly awesome quantity of medical hardware: Seemingly every third person in the place is sucking oxygen from a tank or propping their giant atrophied glutes on motorized wheelchair-scooters. As Palin launches into her Ronald Reagan impression — "Government's not the solution! Government's the problem!" — the person sitting next to me leans over and explains.

"The scooters are because of Medicare," he whispers helpfully. "They have these commercials down here: 'You won't even have to pay for your scooter! Medicare will pay!' Practically everyone in Kentucky has one."

A hall full of elderly white people in Medicare-paid scooters, railing against government spending and imagining themselves revolutionaries as they cheer on the vice-presidential puppet hand-picked by the GOP establishment. If there exists a better snapshot of everything the Tea Party represents, I can't imagine it.

Especially that last paragraph.  That's it.  That's the "Tea Party". 

But folks, the amazing thing isn't how aptly Mr. Taibbi has described the tea party movement, or at least the demographics.  The amazing thing is, they're winning.

Here's the second piece.

You look into the eyes of these people when you talk to them and they genuinely don't see what the problem is. It's no use explaining that while nobody likes the idea of having to get the government to tell restaurant owners how to act, the Civil Rights Act of 1964 was the tool Americans were forced to use to end a monstrous system of apartheid that for 100 years was the shame of the entire Western world. But all that history is not real to Tea Partiers; what's real to them is the implication in your question that they're racists, and to them that is the outrage, and it's an outrage that binds them together. They want desperately to believe in the one-size-fits-all, no-government theology of Rand Paul because it's so easy to understand. At times, their desire to withdraw from the brutally complex global economic system that is an irrevocable fact of our modern life and get back to a simpler world that no longer exists is so intense, it breaks your heart.

I bolded that one sentence because it speaks very clearly to our national celebration of idiocy that I've been lamenting for some time.  People don't want to understand complex things.  This is easier.

Here's the last thing.

This, then, is the future of the Republican Party: Angry white voters hovering over their cash-stuffed mattresses with their kerosene lanterns, peering through the blinds at the oncoming hordes of suburban soccer moms they've mistaken for death-panel bureaucrats bent on exterminating anyone who isn't an illegal alien or a Kenyan anti-colonialist.

I believe Taibbi is right on this one, too -- the Tea Party is nothing more than a corporate-sponsored wing of the GOP, and this is their future.  But don't be so dismissive of it.  It's worked before, and it may well work again.  And it's worked because in their core, they are speaking to a fear that is prevalent in the country -- it's the fear we were asked to check at the door in the name of Hope and Change... and though some of us still believe things get better, it's been slow in coming for too many average Americans.

My progressive and liberal friends will shudder at the thought, but it's what we have in common with our tea party brothers and sisters -- a lingering fear that things aren't going to quite be all right, at least not yet.  Jamming a finger in our chest and telling us to "buck up" isn't going to help, either.  Nor is the fundraising email. 

Keep governing well, Mr. President -- but talk to us like we are your partner in governing, not like we're the slow kid who dropped the ball.  You're in charge now.  Talking to organized constituents like we own a stake in the outcomes of your governance (you know -- we don't call it a representative democracy for nothing) might be a good start, sir.  Because Mr. President, talking to us like we're a mob of unruly neer-do-wells won't cut it this cycle.  Or the next one, for that matter.

See you on the campaign trail.

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We'll be done writing about Election 2010 soon enough.  And then it's on to 2012.  Turn your eyes, your hearts and minds to Iowa, my friends. 

And in the meantime, take heart.  It's almost Friday:

Profile & Interview: Fighting Like Hell for Good Ideas... the Rise of Rick Kriseman Part II

Rick Kriseman was pissed off.

It was Thursday, September 2, and the Democratic Representative from Florida's State House District 53 was fed up with Republican inaction on the oil spill, and he was ready to cut another YouTube video.  That same day, another oil rig in the Gulf would explode.

First, the background.

On April 20, 2010, the British Petroleum oil rig, Deepwater Horizon, exploded, killing 13 and injuring more.  Nine days later, Kriseman and his House colleague Democratic Representative Keith Fitzgerald, issued a press release calling on the Florida House to "end the debate on oil drilling."

In Fitzgerald's quote, one felt a transcendent, magnanimous attempt at correctly elevating the issue beyond political borders while still tattooing it with the urgency of the moment:

“Now is the time to revisit the question of drilling close to Florida’s shores. We call upon the drilling proponents to renounce their plan. We commend Governor Charlie Crist for recognizing the implications of drilling and hope the proponents have similar wisdom.”

In Kriseman's quote, the complete disdain for the Republican leadership's inaction was palpable, and perhaps more disturbingly, prophetic:

“This is a debate that should have never been started and must now end. We have seen enough. Had this disaster occurred three miles off our coast, our beautiful state and our economy would be in ruin, our future in peril. Representative Fitzgerald and I, along with many of our colleagues, experts in the field, and millions of Floridians, have sounded this alarm for over a year now. It’s time for Representative Dean Cannon to listen.”

It would not be the last time Kriseman called out Dean Cannon by name.

As the destroyed Deepwater Horizon well spewed millions of gallons of oil into the Gulf of Mexico, Kriseman continued to ferociously promote the cause of ending the practice of oil drilling off the coast of the shores of a state which relies on tourism to survive.  He put out a May 6 press release essentially acknowledging the addition of candidate for Governor Alex Sink and Attorney General candidate Dan Gelber to the cause.  He issued a May 21 statement offering information related to the spill.  On May 26, he posted a link to the live feed of the oil well leak.  On May 28, he issued a statement offering "more thoughts" on oil drilling and renewable energy.  He again called out Florida House Speaker-designate Dean Cannon by name on the issue of oil drilling in a June 8 statement.

After more than two months of oil spewing into the Gulf of Mexico, Governor Charlie Crist, a relatively newly minted independent seeking a U.S. Senate seat, heeded their cry and called a special session for July 20-23.  Kriseman acknowledged this with a statement, the headline of which spoke for itself: "FINALLY".

Kriseman and Fitzgerald co-sponsored and introduced House Joint Resolution 7C (Kriseman's statement on his legislation is here; his campaign site now has more than half a dozen statements on this issue).

On Tuesday, July 20, House Speaker Larry Cretul adjourned the Florida House of Representatives after just 49 minutes with no action taken.  This was viewed with a bitter irony inasmuch as it was the Republicans who lamented the calling of a Special Session ostensibly due to the prohibitive cost to the taxpayer.  Instead what the taxpayer got was an expensive day of sending legislators to Tallahassee, only to send them home again in under an hour.  There was barely any time to look at any legislation, much less consider it or vote on it.

The final history of HJR 7C is described in coldly procedural terms: Died, Not Introduced.  While  technically true, this phrasing must have felt depressingly poignant to supporters of banning off-shore drilling like Kriseman.  The images of dead and dying wildlife were as ubiquitous as the televised suffering of the shrimpers, fisherman, hotel owners, and shoreline natives.  Was this the very best the Florida Legislature could do?  What else should the chief legislative body of a state do if not this?  Is there any issue not driven solely by political consideration?

Even after such a profound disaster, the answer to the last question stubbornly remains: apparently not.  With low expectations firmly in place, it was nonetheless hard not to be disappointed, not just in the failed Republican leadership of this state, but in the process as well.  While the Republicans plotted 2010 campaign politics, oil continued to pour into the Gulf.  It was the three month anniversary of the Deepwater Horizon explosion.

This time, it was Fitzgerald who seemed to speak for the team, and even the state: 

Some of my colleagues in the legislature claim that in ‘the shadow of a disaster’ is ‘no time to make these kinds of decisions.’ Well, I think it is exactly the time to make those kinds of decisions – I thought it was time to make those kinds of decisions back in May when I urged the governor to call this session.

We had an opportunity to send a signal to small business owners in Florida and to tourists who want to visit some of the best beaches in the nation that we are not an oil state. Instead, the House leadership in the special session not only wasted the time and resources of the legislature by calling us together for less than two hours in total, they also sent a signal to those small businesses and tourists that Big Oil is still king.

Near the fourth month of the spill, even Kriseman had to acknowledge that interest in the issue was waning.

Then, on September 2, a second oil rig exploded off the coast of Louisiana.

That same day, Kriseman uploaded a YouTube video, and this time his rage was unvarnished:  

It's clear this fight will likely continue, at least on some level, into the next legislative session.  This is good news, because there is ample evidence that this is an issue which Kriseman cares about.  It is certainly one he seems poised to fight.

Then again, Kriseman doesn't seem to be afraid to get out in front of an issue if he believes in it.  He is the prime sponsor of an initiative to urge the repeal of federal "Don't Ask Don't Tell" policy.  And when he and his family lost their house to a fire, he is environmentalist enough to have built a new "green" home.

Indeed, Kriseman's house is as good a jumping-off point as any to this second installment of this Profile & Interview with Representative Rick Kriseman.

This is the second of a two-part series -- read the first part here.

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Talk a little about your new house and how it came to be.

While on a vacation in Virginia in 2008, we received a call from our family advising us that our home was on fire and we needed to return immediately.  After returning home and seeing that the home was not salvageable, we knew we would have to build a new home.  As the Ranking Democrat on the Committee on Energy for the past three years, and having learned so much about LEED and green building during that time, my family and I felt that we should put our “money where our mouth was” and try to build our home as green as possible. While both the contractor we hired, Deslandes Contracting, and the architect we hired, Roney Design, had never built a green home, both were excited about the prospect of doing so. We then hired Darren Brinkley of Real Building to assist our team in all aspects of building a green home, including our effort to have the home LEED certified.  After 6 months of construction, the house was completed and we moved back in to the home.  We are awaiting results from the LEED inspector.

You served on the St. Petersburg City Council.  What were some of your highlight moments?

There is much that I am proud of during my time on council, and I feel very fortunate to have served during the city’s renaissance. My goal was simple – I just wanted to make St. Pete a better place to live. Specifically, a highlight was leading the effort to expand the city's Human Rights Ordinance. I always enjoyed being the guy who signed the St. Pete Pride Proclamation. Mayor Baker was never comfortable with it, but it was an honor for me. I spearheaded the city’s efforts to become more pedestrian and bicycle friendly, with my efforts culminating in the implementation of those “countdown crosswalk” signals you see around the city. Fighting for “government in the sunshine” meant a lot to me. I was responsible for putting city meetings online. For some strange reason, it took years to get the support to do so.

I may be most proud of casting the deciding vote on the sale of city-owned property in Hernando County. As a result my vote, the property was permanently dedicated by the State of Florida as preservation land, and the city was able to set up an endowment fund from the sale proceeds, which have been used to provide greater recreational and park amenities, including the building of five dog parks, two skateboard parks, and the renovation and expansion of the Gisella Kopsik Palm Arboretum, all at no expense to taxpayers.

Why did you make the jump from City Council to State Representative?    

I’m careful not to do things just because they are a logical next step, but this particular decision was an easy one. I had a long involvement with District 53 and West St. Pete before running for the seat, starting with managing former Rep. Lars Hafner’s campaign in the late 80s. After serving 6 good years on council, I felt I was the best person to take on the bigger issues that the Florida Legislature addresses.

Who were some of your early political influences in American politics?  What about on the world stage?  

When I was growing up, I loved reading books about Abraham Lincoln. His leadership at difficult times, and the positions he took during those times, were inspirational to me. I also have been influenced by both John and Bobby Kennedy. Last, but not least, was Martin Luther King, Jr.  What a brilliant man he was. On the world stage, Golda Meier and Ghandi have had an influence on me.

What politicians influence you now?  Are there political ideas from non-traditional sources that influence you?

I strive to be an ‘ideas’ guy. This was something I learned during my involvement with the Democratic Leadership Council. For me, the DLC wasn’t about dividing the Democratic Party and having a separate strategy and message – it was about having ideas that appeal to people across the political spectrum. The DLC publishes a local playbook of ideas, and some of the things I learned from that playbook have made their way into law in both St. Petersburg and in Florida. One example is Service Learning. SL integrates community service into a classroom curriculum, and vice versa. This was something I learned about from former Lt. Governor Kathleen Kennedy Townsend of Maryland, and brought the idea to Florida. It’s now law.

There’s not a single current politician that I follow or aspire to be like – I just hope to cut my own little path.

What is the most surprising thing you’ve learned about how politics and campaigns work?

I guess the most “surprising” thing I’ve learned about campaigns is how much more difficult it is to ask for money for yourself than it is to ask for money for someone else.  I found it easy to raise money for Joe Lieberman and John Kerry and Barack Obama.  I find it much more difficult to raise money for myself.  I also find it surprising how it is much easier to ask for contributions from strangers or acquaintances than to ask for money from family or longtime friends.  

Having said that, what is most disappointing is the role that money plays, not only in elections, but in government in general.

What is the most surprising thing you’ve learned about how government works that perhaps you didn’t know before?

On the state level, one thing I’ve learned is that it sometimes takes years to make good things happen, but bad things seem to happen overnight. It also doesn’t seem to matter how good the policy is, instead, it seems to only matter which party is putting the policy forward.  I’m also constantly surprised, though I shouldn’t be, by how shameless some legislators can be. There are a lot of times when I think to myself “They just don’t care” about the public’s opinion. Senate Bill 6 and the Oil drilling constitutional amendment are the most recent examples.

This election year looks to be contentious.  Is there any sense in this political cycle that we will get away from some of the nasty, personal pettiness and move on to the issues that matter?

No. And unfortunately, it seems to be getting worse. I’ve been in elected office for almost 10 years. This will be the 5th time my name has been on the ballot, and I’ve yet to pay for or approve a negative mail piece, or have one sent on my behalf. Even when hit pieces have gone out against me, I’ve stayed on message and continued a positive campaign. I don’t see a great benefit in negative mailers and prefer to focus on the issues at hand. My experience is that voters prefer it that way. I wish others felt the same way.

What issues translate for you from a national level to a local level, as you look at what people in District 53 are talking about?

I think my constituents share the concerns of most of America – they want the economy to improve and they want a better education system for their kids, which also happens to be an economic issue. There are some issues that matter on the periphery, things like clean energy, the environment, and oil drilling, and issues relating to equality and fairness. But when you’re hurting financially and both your child and their school are receiving poor grades, you don’t care too much about anything else. I think this is true around the country.

After serving a couple of terms, are you still able to bring a fresh perspective, or has the process jaded you somewhat?

It’s natural to get jaded, especially throughout the course of a session, and especially as a Democrat. By Day 60, you’re really fed up and beat up. You feel disillusioned because for 60 days you’ve seen a broken government up close. But then I come home, take a deep breath, and prepare to fight again. The idea of passing quality legislation or helping kill bad legislation keeps me going, as does knowing that I’m giving people a voice. It’s still an honor to know that people have entrusted me to look after their interests.

If you were the King of Florida – or even just the Governor – what would be the first things you change for the better?  

Everything changes for the better if we pass sweeping campaign finance laws, which means abolishing the 527s, ECOs, CCEs, etc. Less money and influence will equate to better policies. From there, I’d have a bit of a laundry list, starting with public education reform, the closing of outdated tax exemptions and the closing of corporate tax loopholes, the creation of a new economic engine through clean energy, and allowing gay couples to adopt. I’d also pay more attention to how we’re treating our elders in this state. Right now, a nursing home resident on Medicaid receives a $35 a month allowance, among the lowest in the nation and unchanged for 23 years now. This needs to be addressed immediately.

Looking ahead five, ten, even twenty years ahead, what are some things that Florida needs to do now to make it the kind of place you’ll want to continue to raise your children?

It’s time for legislative leadership in Florida to decide what its priorities are and provide adequate funding to address those priorities. Personally, I believe education should be at the top of the list.  But to fix our broken educational system will take more than just funding; there must be the political courage to address the root problems in the system. Parental involvement, discipline in the classroom, competent teachers who are supported by administration, and adequate support staff – all of these issues must be included in any education reform initiative.  If we fix education in this state, we provide the economic engine needed to attract new businesses, employ people in high paying jobs, and change our state’s current disastrous path. Our state government must also do more in the way of long term planning. Local government does long term planning very well. Tallahassee – not so well.  Because there is no real long term planning taking place, decisions are made which, in the long term, often cost the state more money. These are merely two things which must take place here in Florida.

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Rep. Kriseman was good enough to have me at his house for a one-on-one, on-camera interview.  When I walked in, his aide, Kevin King, immediately took me to the attic, which was less than ten degrees warmer than the rest of the house.  There is a thick spray of insulation coating the entire inside of the roof.  And that's just one of the remarkable things about their "green" house.  The Kriseman House is truly amazing.  You can watch Kriseman give a tour of their house: Part I, Part II, Part III, and I thank him for having me over.

In our interview, we covered a range of topics -- everything from the oil disaster to the environment to state politics to local politics.  Rep. Kriseman seemed to enjoy the interview.  I certainly enjoyed asking the questions.  Hope you enjoy watching.

# # # #

It was an honor to interview and write about Representative Kriseman.  I want to sincerely thank him once again, along with Kevin King and David Flintom for their time and effort.  Don't forget -- you can read Part I of our interview here. 

I hope you'll support Rick Kriseman for State House. 

It's a Numbers Game I Just Got My Ballot Edition

Five Thirty Eight: Florida Senate, Rubio 41.6%, Crist 34.4%, Meek 24.1%

Five Thirty Eight: Florida Senate Probabilities, Rubio 76.2% chance of winning, Crist 22.1% chance of winning, Meek 1.7% chance of winning

Gallup: Obama Job Approval, 44% Approve, 49% Disapprove (1 percent change + in Approve number since August 30)

Gallup: Americans Confident in Own Bank, but Not U.S. Banks

Gallup: In U.S., 13% More Have Gov't Healthcare Since Recession Began

Gallup: U.S. Leadership Approval Still High in 10 African Nations

TPM Polltracker: Florida Governor, Sink 45.5%, Scott 44.4% (with conservative polls included)

TPM Polltracker: Florida U.S. Senate, Rubio 40.0%, Crist 29.5%, Meek 22.1% (with conservative polls included)

TPM Polltracker: Obama Job Approval, 53.9% Disapprove, 43.6% Approve

Off the Radar Cool Down Edition

The rich stay healthy, the sick stay poor.  Bono said it best, didn't he?

Rich people are fabulously wealthy, the poor are getting poorer -- and their ranks are growing.  Who doesn't know this at this point? 

The only thing that surprises me anymore is how surprised people are.  Check out the outrage on former Labor Secretary Robert Reich:

The super-rich got even wealthier this year, and yet most of them are paying even fewer taxes to support the eduction, job training, and job creation of the rest of us. According to Forbes magazine’s annual survey, just released, the combined net worth of the 400 richest Americans climbed 8% this year, to $1.37 trillion. Wealth rose for 217 members of the list, while 85 saw a decline.

Even if you don't know this by the numbers, you'd almost have to be comatose to not have at least a feeling that it's true. 

The rest of America got poorer, of course. The number in poverty rose to a post-war high. The median wage continues to deteriorate. And some 20 million Americans don’t have work.

Only twice before in American history has so much been held by so few, and the gap between them and the great majority been a chasm — the late 1920s, and the era of the robber barons in the 1880s.

Of course the rest of us got poorer.  Why wouldn't we?  I am not saying I'm pleased about this -- I'm not -- but I just don't find it that shocking. 

What I find a little more shocking is that guys like Reich -- along with Krugman, and others -- seem to be missing the point, at least a little bit.  It's not really about who gets rich and who doesn't.  It's about the social safety net for those who are poor.  The problem -- the surprising thing about it -- is that we're actually in the midst of a debate about whose safety next to shore up: the one for the rich (in the form of the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy), or the poor, in the form of, well, the actual social safety net.

The disheartening thing is that Democrats, who ostensibly fight for that actual safety net, seem to have given up.  At least for now.   

Democrats have decided to delay voting on whether to extend them for the top 2 percent of Americans or for the bottom 98 percent until after the mid-term elections.

Democrats have thereby given up a defining issue that could have enabled them to show the big story of the last three decades — the accumulation of almost all the gain from economic growth at the top — and to make a start at reversing it.

When will they ever learn?

I can only hope it's all a campaign season tactic the benefit of which eludes me for the moment. 

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Speaking of the very poor, the Ybor City Stogie has some of the more poignant photos of local homeless folks you will find.  I consider his posting those pictures a genuine public service.

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The weather has cooled down just a little bit.  It's made taking the dog for a walk a lot nicer. 

Still, we're not out of the woods yet.  Just a few more weeks. 

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Heh.  Chuck Grassley said "erection".  Heh heh. 

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Lots of hot politics happening down in Sarasota.  It looks like Sarasota County Commissioner Shannon Staub (a Republican) is leaving the Commission -- and Governor Charlie Crist will get to name her replacement.  Right now there are twenty applicants, one of whom is Jan Schneider.  Jan has run for the Congressional seat there a number of times (I managed her first campaign through the primary).

Apparently she's not the favorite to be appointed, but with twenty applicants, it sounds like the competition was pretty fierce to begin with.

On top of that, it looks like Republican County Commissioner Joe Barbetta has a tough fight on his hands, too.

Between all of that, and Keith's race, I sort of wish I was down in Sarasota.

# # # #

The St. Petersburg Times is recommending a NO vote on Amendment 4, the "Hometown Democracy" amendment.

Along with redistricting, this is probably the biggest thing you'll vote on this season that is not a candidate.

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This made me a bit lonely for D.C.  One of the things I love about Washington are the grand buildings and the (usually) great architecture.   

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The Rays could clinch a playoff spot as early as today.  Let's go Rays!

Keith Fitzgerald: One of the Good Guys, Working for You

At this point, it may be that I've written about Keith Fitzgerald more than any other person on this blog.

Rather than give you the background I've given countless times, I want to ask a couple of favors.  First, I want you to check out his new ad:

Well?  What do you think? 

Of course, I think it's great.  He's right (as he always seems to be).  Tallahassee is full of noise -- and not the good kind.  Not incidentally, here: when was the last time you heard a politician say "It's my job to work for you". 

We need more leaders like Keith working for us.  Our state is in desperate need of their ideas, of their ingenuity, of their willingness to serve. 

So here's my second request.  Please go to Keith's website, or his Facebook page, and help how you can.  Donate something if you would.  Even five or ten bucks.

We spend a lot of time lamenting the way things are at the federal level, or the juggernaut of the Republican machine at the state-wide level.  In Keith, we have that pragmatic leader we're always talking about. 

And the Republicans know it.  He's got a big old target on his back.

Let's help him get re-elected.

Democrats Abandon You on Tax Cuts

This is a really short post because I'm angry and I'm tired and I'm mad at my dog for climbing on the couch even though there's a damn buzzer thing on there. 

Democrats have failed you -- again. 

Senate Democratic leaders decided Thursday to delay a vote on preserving soon-to-expire middle class tax cuts until after congressional elections in November.

President Barack Obama has made extending the cuts a priority, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid tried to forge a consensus among fellow Democrats to pass a bill before voters choose their congressmen and senators on Nov. 2.

But Reid, a Democrat from Nevada, decided to delay any vote after a meeting with other Senate Democrats failed to produce an agreement on how to proceed.

I'm usually all about defending the process, being pragmatic, giving the leadership a chance.  Not this time.  All they had to do was move this forward, and it would've given them something for the campaign trail. 

Tax cuts for the middle class -- while the Republicans wail about preserving tax cuts for the uber-rich.  It's a no-brainer on the campaign trail.  But they couldn't even get that right.

When people express frustration with Democrats, this is what they're talking about. 

I hope the DSCC won't waste their time sending me fundraiser emails.

Profile & Interview: My Neighborhood Politician... the Rise of Rick Kriseman Part I

There are rays of hope, wonderful people who care a lot and are fighting like hell for good ideas. People like St. Pete state Rep. Rick Kriseman, a voice of sanity in a GOP-goofball-dominated Florida Legislature. — Wayne Garcia, Creative Loafing, September 2, 2009

The first time I met State Representative Rick Kriseman, a Democrat from District 53, was 2007 and I was celebrating my first wedding anniversary.  I was in Tallahassee to see Duncan, who was totally immersed in the legislative session with her boss, also newly-elected Representative Keith Fitzgerald, a Sarasota Democrat from the 69th District.

Duncan and I were at a pretty nice Asian-fusion restaurant and in came Rick along with his wife Kerry, joining his legislative aide, Kevin King and Kevin's girlfriend (now his wife) Karis.  I should say Rick was wheeled in.  He'd been playing softball on a lovely spring day and had broken his leg on a hard run to first.  It was a severe break.  The leg was held completely straight and ridged as he sat upright in the wheelchair, and it looked profoundly uncomfortable.

Poor Rick, Duncan said, we should say hi.

We approached their table and chatted with them for a short time.  Rick looked to be tired and in not an inconsiderable amount of pain, though it was hard to tell which was more painful, the broken leg or negotiating the contentious legislative session.

Though not new to politics, 2007 was Kriseman's first legislative session as a State Representative.  It was a difficult session -- and it would not be his last. 

Representative and Mrs. Kriseman greeted us warmly -- he and Keith have become close over the course of their legislative careers -- as did Kevin and Karis.  It was an interesting dynamic.  First, Duncan will hardly ever be the one to initiate contact.  She's more likely to hold back, especially during something like, say, our anniversary dinner.

Second, I was struck by how together Kriseman seemed to be.  He and I only chatted for a few brief minutes, but he was warm and engaging, animated and quick.  You'd expect this in any good politician, but the fact that he was probably very uncomfortable, if not in considerable pain, made it all the more impressive. 

I've since found Representative Kriseman to be exactly all of those things, and more so since his leg has healed.  But Kriseman also represents what is possibly a new generation -- and a new character -- of politician emerging in Florida (and possibly nation-wide; you could argue Obama fits this mold): the down-to-earth, accessible, everyman politician.  I like to call these politicians "neighborhood politicians," because they are the people who live near you.  Down the road, around the corner.  You see them at the grocery store, at the pizza place, at Blockbuster, at the gas station.  They are a living, breathing connection between the life you live and the complicated, often difficult-to-interpret politics which affects it every day. 

This first installment of the Profile & Interview focuses on Representative Kriseman's personal life.  As a new father who is relatively new to the area, I was curious to hear what life was like for him when he was young, and what kept him here.  I was heartened by his answers, and believe they support my idea of a what I like to call a neighborhood politician.   

Following is the first half of what I hope may be more Profile & Interview pieces.  In the coming days, I'll post the second half of Representative Kriseman's Profile & Interview, including a video session in which we'll discuss some policy issues affecting District 53, Florida, and America.

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When and where were you born? 

I was born in Detroit in 1962, moved here in 1972 when I was 9 years old.

What are your parent’s names?  What did your parents do for a living?  Do you have siblings?

My dad, Donald “Danny” Kriseman, started his own business, Modern Wholesale Hardware, and at the time he sold the business, it was a city block long and was located in Pinellas Park. My mom, Doris Abramsohn Kriseman, was a homemaker. However, as a hobby, she wrote music. I have one sibling, a sister Nancy, who lives in Atlanta.  She is a licensed Social Worker with an advanced specialty in Gerontology. Aside from the time she spends counseling families who are dealing with an aging parent, she also trains nursing home staffers on how to better communicate with their patients utilizing a technique she wrote about in her book “The Caring Spirit”.

What was life like growing up in St. Petersburg?

I attended public school at Pasadena Elementary, Azalea Middle, and Boca Ciega High School. This was a great community to grow up in, and for that reason, many of the kids I went to school with, like myself, have remained and are raising their own families here.

You went to U.F. and studied broadcasting.  What was the draw?

I have always loved music, and my initial thought was that broadcasting would provide me with a vehicle to earn a living while continuing to enjoy my love of music. After working in the profession for a short period of time, I soon discovered that with the job came the requirement to work nights, weekends and holidays, and at the time, the idea of doing so was not appealing to me.

How long have you been married – how did you meet Kerry? 

I have been married to my wife for 18 years this November.  While we “technically” met in a bar (the former “Beach Nutts” on Treasure Island), of the two jobs she was working at the time when I met her, one of the jobs was in a bank as a teller. It happened to be the same bank where I had my personal accounts. So while we formally introduced ourselves to each other at the bar, we had seen each other before in the bank.

Tell us something about your children, Jordan and Samuel. When you’re home, do you talk much about what’s happening in Tallahassee?

My daughter Jordan is the oldest.  She has just turned 13 and is in 7th grade at Shorecrest Prepatory School. My son Samuel is 7, and is in 2nd grade at Shorecrest.  Jordan, who recently celebrated her Bat Mitzvah, has been engaged in a service project for the past year. Her project, which has involved the whole family, has been raising a service dog for Southeastern Guide Dogs.  She also has been doing Irish Step Dancing for the past 6 years and has competed in National competitions. Samuel has been taking Karate at Ron Schnell’s Superkicks in South Pasadena for the past 3 years. In addition to Karate, Samuel’s other passion, besides reading non-fiction books, is golf.

When I’m home, I try not to talk about politics or what has been happening in Tallahassee, as I do need some down time where I can focus solely on my wife and kids.  However, my wife and kids are very interested in what I do and what is going on in Florida, so despite my best efforts, political discussions are a common occurrence in the Kriseman household.

Talk a little bit about what inspired you to get started in politics/elected office when you did.  What first brought your attention to politics and government? 

I first got involved in politics in 1986 when a longtime friend from high school decided he was going to run for office and asked me to be his campaign manager.  He had never run for office before, and I had never managed a campaign before, so it was perfect.  Unfortunately, we were not successful that time, however, two years later, my friend Lars Hafner successfully defeated the incumbent Dottie Sample, and served in that position for 12 years until term limits ended his term.  I also served as a founding board member of the Tampa Bay Democratic Leadership Council.  It was during my time on this board that I first entertained thoughts of running for office. My first attempt was in 1999 when I challenged St. Petersburg City Councilmember Bob Kersteen.  I lost that race, but was soon appointed to serve on the city’s Nuisance Abatement Board.  While serving on that board, Councilmember Kersteen resigned his seat to run for the State House seat being vacated by the termed-out Rep. Lars Hafner.  In December 2000, I applied for and was appointed to serve as the City Councilman for District 1.  In 2001 I ran for reelection and did so again successfully in 2003.  From the time I first ran through my service in the Florida House, my goal has always been to be thoughtful and a voice of reason.

# # # #

This interview and profile is the first of a two-part series.  In our second part, we will feature a more in-depth discussion of politics and policy, as well as an accompanying video interview. 

It was an honor to interview and write about Representative Kriseman.  I thank him and Kevin King for their openness, availability, and honesty. 

Please support Rick Kriseman for State House.

Shake It Up, Baby

I know that all my progressive blogosphere friends are keen to see the likes of White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel leave to run for Mayor of Chicago (which he will almost certainly do), and are cheering tonight's news that chief economic adviser Larry Summers will leave to go back to Harvard.

Who am I to rain on their parade? 

Oh.  That's right.  The condescending, obnoxious snob who cynically straddles the middle while claiming the mantle of pragmatism for all the world to read on the Spencerian.  Dangit.

Well, my progressive friends won't get a whole lot of talking down to from me tonight -- but they'll get some. 

One of the things that made the Bush Administration so awful, so heinous was the fact that it was built on a CEO model of leadership.  Absolute fealty to the guy at the top.  And Cheney, sure.  But whatever they said went!  Anyway, don't you remember hating it?  But if you're honest with yourself, you were a little jealous, too.  Because damn, they may have been wrong on just about everything, but they sure had a tight message machine.  Dissent was unheard of. 

And it made for a terrible administration. 

Look, one of the things any decent governmental organization is going to have if it wants to thrive is voices of dissent, voices of difference.  If everybody is telling the president what he wants to hear, then who's to say he doesn't really believe there aren't, oh, I don't know, weapons of mass destruction in Iraq?  Hey, we all got to tell the boss the same thing so we can do what we want to do!

Obama hasn't governed that way, and it doesn't appear that he will, and I, for one, am thrilled about that. 

On the flip side, it is a recipe that does not make for unity among the larger base.  And, more important, if those important voices of dissent -- the more conservative voices, I think we can say -- become the voices of the majority, then as they say, Houston, we have a problem. 

There's not a definitive line, no written formula for mixing different voices in your decision making process.  I have trusted Obama, and like my progressive friends, I have been let down on a number of occasions. 

I think we could have used more stimulus, for example.  Much more.  It was Larry Summers who tamped that down, and for that reason, I'll opt to celebrate with my progressive friends tonight.

Oh, and by the way -- don't be surprised to see more shake-ups after the mid-term elections.  And please, please don't read too much into it.  It happens all the time, and mid-terms are frequently a time when folks choose to leave.  I think the average political appointment lasted something like 18 months.  Whether they'll be voices of dissent or not is another question entirely.

So Rich, It Hurts

A fascinating back-and-forth between me and Dave at must-read Re/Creating Tampa from a couple of posts ago had me wanting to do a post about how Democrats and Progressives do a better job on recruiting and messaging (and other stuff). 

But this has been building for a little bit, now, and I think it's time for a post. 

There are few things I like more than to watch the CBS Sunday Morning Show with my daughter.  She usually loses interest by the time the headlines are over, but it's nice to have it going in the background while we play with toys.  I had to stop when Ben Stein's opinion commentary came on.   

I am a fairly upper income taxpayer. Not anything even remotely close to sports stars or movie stars or financial big boys. But I am above the level Mr. Obama says makes me rich. So, in the midst of a severe recession, I am to have my taxes raised dramatically.

I am not quite sure what my sin is.

I worked for almost every dollar I have, except for a small percentage my parents left me by virtue of hard work and Spartan living, and most of that was taken by the federal estate tax. I have a hell of a lot less than I did before the stock market and real estate market crashes. I didn't get a bailout or any part of a stimulus program, except for traffic jams as the roads in Beverly Hills got worked on for the 10th time in the last 10 years (or so it seems).

You already know what's coming.  He's going to whine about having his taxes increased.  You'd think that being taxed wouldn't be that big a deal to Ben Stein.  This, after all, is a guy who had a show called Win Ben Stein's Money.

I hate it when rich people equate being taxed with being punished for "sin."  It's not payment for sin -- save that for when you go to church.  It's called paying your fair share, and I'm sorry it's so painful for so many people. 

Actually, no I'm not.  Why would I be sorry to a guy like this, for example:

Charles Munger, the billionaire vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., defended the U.S. financial-company rescues of 2008 and told students that people in economic distress should “suck it in and cope.”

[snip]

“There’s danger in just shoveling out money to people who say, ‘My life is a little harder than it used to be,’” Munger said at the event, which was moderated by CNBC’s Becky Quick. “At a certain place you’ve got to say to the people, ‘Suck it in and cope, buddy. Suck it in and cope.’”

Would someone please tell Charles Munger that the poverty rate is the highest it has been since 1994.  I realize the chasm between billionaire investor and someone in poverty is so vast that it is nearly impossible to fathom, but really, with a billion dollars, you'd think he could hire someone to explain this to him. 

As just an aside, that's one aspect of this raging class war I've never understood.  Who on earth would think it's reasonable to listen to what a billionaire investor has to say about Americans in poverty?  Or even just everyday, average Americans?  Would you go ask the homeless guy under the bridge how Charles Munger should invest his money?

The rich have finally had enough, as Paul Krugman has noted. 

The rage of the rich has been building ever since Mr. Obama took office. At first, however, it was largely confined to Wall Street. Thus when New York magazine published an article titled “The Wail Of the 1%,” it was talking about financial wheeler-dealers whose firms had been bailed out with taxpayer funds, but were furious at suggestions that the price of these bailouts should include temporary limits on bonuses. When the billionaire Stephen Schwarzman compared an Obama proposal to the Nazi invasion of Poland, the proposal in question would have closed a tax loophole that specifically benefits fund managers like him.

Now, however, as decision time looms for the fate of the Bush tax cuts — will top tax rates go back to Clinton-era levels? — the rage of the rich has broadened, and also in some ways changed its character.

They're mad.  And dammit, they're not going to take it anymore. 

And here's the worse news.  They're winning -- and are going to win.  You and I and Charles Munger's financial adviser under the bridge have lost.  We'll see more gazillionaires like the Koch brothers funding more tea-party-esque kinds of things, and they'll be successful at the kinds of things like the Koch brothers have done, like "debunking" climate change, an issue Krugman's New York Times fellow columnist Thomas Friedman addressed the other day.

So I've decided I have the answer.  Here it is.  You ready?

Okay, the way to beat this is... to join them.

Be rich.  Make a billion dollars, gang.  It's the only way. 

Just don't forget to complain about those liberals raising your taxes once you get there.

Get to the Church on Time

This is the kind of thing in politics that drives me insane.

Know what the root of all of America's troubles is: it's that Obama doesn't go to church regularly.  John Cole commented on the tweet from Politico's Ben Smith, a re-tweet from Karen Travers.  Here's the tweet:

John's comments:

The best part of this is the whole emphasis on Obama’s church habits is that it is little more than an extension of the right-wing meme about Obama being Muslim. He only rarely goes to church, and that’s just to fake it. And when he does, it’s with that America hating Preacher! Also, blackity black black black!

Personally, I wish Obama had spent the morning clearing brush.

On top of it all, creepy weirdo wing-nut  Mike Huckabee decided to lecture Obama and American on our "morality crisis." 

The financial meltdown on Wall Street that sparked the recession was "not a money crisis, it was a moral crisis," Huckabee said. Financial institutions were allowed to function like casinos, he continued, and "if they lose, you the taxpayer pays for it and the government breaks both your legs to pay for it."

That's right.  Elect Mike Huckabee and he'll bring morality to Wall Street.  Probably because the first thing he'll do (per a tweet I can't find now) once he's elected president is find a congregation.

And that'll assure the nation that he's not, you know, Muslim.

Finally Friday I've Got the Perfect Place in Mind Edition

I don't have very much for you.  I finally got a bike helmet and a good bike that works, and I'm going to give it a run this weekend, see if I still have what it takes (I'm sure I don't). 

Good luck to you in whatever your weekend adventure may be.

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Florida unemployment crept up in August.  That's a bummer, for sure. 

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Kenneth Quinnell takes issue with the Florida GOP's audit.

The Alston & Bird internal audit for the Republican Party of Florida seems to contain a glaring inconsistency which appears to exonerate current Republican office holders from any wrongdoing while, at the same time, making serious allegations about former Republican Party officials and office holders.

The whole thing is weird to me.

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Hey, a hearty congratulations to Out in Left Field's Catherine Durkin Robinson as well as Peter Schorsch's must-read Saint Petersblog for winning a bunch of Creative Loafing's "Loafie" awards -- .

It's a pretty big deal here in the Tampa Bay area.  Click here for all the winners.

Keep up the good work, you guys.   

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Head out to your perfect place.  It's finally Friday.

Take the Base: In Defense of the Two-Party Duopoly

We were listening to the Rays game on the radio last night.  What a game.

Duncan and I only have something to the effect of ultra-light cable.  I know we get a couple of home shopping channels.  There are some Spanish channels and I think TBS.  I get the networks and PBS.  But we basically keep it around for Bay News 9.  Hey, sometimes you need to know the local weather and some news, and Bay News 9 is perfect for that.

It was very interesting listening to the play-by-play on this thing with Derek Jeter of the New York Yankees.  It was the seventh inning and Rays pitcher Chad Qualls sent one his way, and what actually happened is that the ball hit the very end -- right at the knob -- and bounced away.  But the way Jeter danced around, you'd have thought his arm was about to fall off. 

Click here to see the video for yourself.

Jeter admitted as much later, saying his job was to get on base.  And you know, he's right: his job is to get on base.  I thought -- and more eloquent people than I think -- that he went a little too far.  There's something to good sportsmanship.  There's something to doing the right thing.

But this is a fight for playoff positions -- a battle between the two best teams in baseball.  None of it is for the faint of heart. 

And besides, Dan Johnson blasted a two-run homer for the win.

Here's a little factoid about me: I used to play baseball.  "Play" is a term I use very, very loosely. 

Very.

I played in a Boys & Girls Club league.  That one was pretty traumatic, because I was at an age where most kids were starting to get pretty good.  I sucked, and my only real memory of it is walking off the field crying.  I'm sure it was a proud moment for my parents. 

I did try out during my first year in college.  I sucked then, too, but so did the team.  I took a few at-bats in a couple of games before finally losing interest.  The story I always tell is that after I transferred to Arkansas State University, I tried out for the team there, too.  I was a catcher, and took a couple of pitches from a guy who went straight to the St. Louis Cardinals after graduation and that was it.  My hand was swollen the rest of the day.  I never went back to it. 

I was terrible in left field and as a catcher.  I throw horrible, and my hand-eye coordination is just not that good, so I'd frequently drop the ball or miss what should have been easy catches.  But, weirdly, I usually had pretty good at-bats.  I got several good hits off that pitcher who burned up my hand.  If you give me the right kind of ball low and away, with good speed and the right kind of turn on it, I can put it over the fence (as long as it's a really, really close fence...).  I had run track in high school, so I wasn't too slow around the bases, but certainly nothing noteworthy. 

I'm not 100% sure how baseball and lousy players got me thinking about the two-party system in America.  I think it's because in baseball, as in many or most sports, you have only two teams -- and that works.  And the players of each team are expected to fill certain roles.  Batters hit, outfielders catch, base-runners run.  When players don't do what they're supposed to do -- say, when a widely respected player acts like an idiot -- it gets a lot of attention. 

But just because a player does something dumb, or just because a team is having a bad season, doesn't mean a third team should take the field. 

I'm not going to name names, and I hope this doesn't get me kicked off the list, but I do belong to a listserve of progressive Floridians.  It is a good list and I frequently hear from good people with very good intentions.  It's always exciting to get something from someone on that list.

The bottom line is, there are a few Green Party folks on that list, and their specialty seems to be criticizing Democrats and Democratic candidates.  When you rebut or refute what they're saying, you tend to get the defensive posture: well, you're merely supporting the two-party duopoly. 

Well, right.  Maybe I am.  But I like my baseball with two teams on the field.

Here's the thing: I think two parties works.  I know that people complain that Democrats have sold out to corporate interests and have abandoned the middle class or even the poor and working class.  To some degree, perhaps they're right.  I get frustrated when conservative Democrats do dumb things.  But I'll still take a conservative Democrat over a conservative Republican any day. 

The Republicans, if you haven't noticed, are having this debate on their side of the aisle, too.  And the moderates appear to be losing, at least right now.

A lot of the Green people get defensive when you mention Al Gore, or more specifically, George W. Bush.  Look, the bottom line is, but for Ralph Nader and his Green Party candidacy, Al Gore would have been president.  It's that simple.  You can get an amazing amount of smoke and mirrors from the Green Party folks who would love nothing more than to obfuscate that fact and disassociate themselves from the presidency of George W. Bush. 

There's no difference between Al Gore and George W. Bush.  That was Nader's line.  If the eight years we had of the Bush Presidency didn't dissuade you of that notion, then you haven't been paying attention.  Do you suppose Al Gore, a guy who sat on the Intelligence Committee along with the Homeland Security and Governmental Services as well as the Armed Services Committees would have ignored a memo entitled "Bin Laden Determined to Strike in U.S."?  Do you think Al Gore would have begun a war of choice in Iraq?  Do you suppose the Nobel Prize winner would have totally abandoned the Kyoto Protocol?

Maybe you hate Al Gore -- and I have Democratic and progressive friends who have and had no love for the man.  I even understand it.  He ran a terrible campaign, to be sure.  Joe Lieberman for your running mate?  Really?  No campaigning with Clinton?  Gore even lost his own home state, for God's sake.  It's true.

But the answer to Gore's terrible plays on the field was not and is not a third party.  It's to make our own team better.  We've got a lot of work to do. 

I can't wait until Emeline is old enough to play catch.

The Delaware Destroyers

A few weeks ago, Florida Primary night was vaguely overshadowed by our friends to the far north in Alaska.  Seems the Republican voters there opted to oust sitting GOP Senator Lisa Murkowski, who is now considering a write-in bid to retain her seat.  That was certainly an entertaining race, but Senator Murkowski was hardly the first casualty of the Tea Partiers politically reckless movement.  Some could argue that Florida's own Charlie Crist was one of the first.  He'd built an image (largely false) of a moderate politician espousing moderate policies, and for his efforts was driven from the GOP Primary by the tea bag contingent and their poster boy, Marco Rubio.

Not all that long ago there was a sort of tea party-based war in New York.  Establishment Republican-backed candidate Dede Scozzafava was run out of the race by a Conservative Party candidate named Doug Hoffman.  Assemblywoman Scozzafava threw her support to the Democrat and eventual winner of the race, Congressman Bill Owens.

There have been other versions of this story playing out in places all over America.  Rand Paul has done something similiar in the Senate Race in Kentucky.

Last night a number of other states had primaries as well, and it looks like we're seeing versions of this particular story line play out once again.  When Senator Joe Biden was named VP, the speculation on his replacement began immediately.  I figured his son, Beau Biden, was a lock, but he opted out pretty quickly. 

When I heard Republican Congressman Mike Castle was getting into the race, I assumed he had it all sewn up, and that this long-held Democratic Senate seat would flip to the GOP column.  As it happens, I have met Congressman Castle a couple of times.  He was a pro-stem cell research Republican, and generally willing to commit the apparently mortal sin of working with Democrats, often on social issues.  I found him to be unpretentious, personable, and a generally nice guy.    

Now his career is over.  The person who beat him, thanks to what we might call a tea partier insurgency, is Christine O'Donnell, a woman who has called President Obama "un-American," has said there is "plenty" of evidence to support creationism, has said AIDS research gets too much government money, and has renounced masturbation (lust in your heart, you know...).  

All of the big prognosticators have now moved the race from "leans Republican" to "leans Democrat".  Hey, it's a new day for Democrat Chris Coons.  Congratulations, buddy.

To be frank with you, I don't think Mr. Coons should get too comfortable.  You don't beat a six-term Congressman with the backing of the GOP establishment with nothing but luck.  Whether you or I think the tea partiers are nuts -- and I, for one, certainly do -- they are organized in a profound way.  And organizational machines are what win elections.

And just as an aside, I disagree with National Journal's Jonathan Rauch who was on NPR this morning talking about who the Tea Party may or may not be.  Sure, maybe they're a "fluid," "decentralized" organization -- but they also absolutely have foundations in racism.  There's a lot of this about Obama and the concurrent rise of "minority" voting power in America.  Rauch notes that the tea partier demographic is "white, bright, and all right," an idiotic phrase I hate but understand.  

What I wonder is why didn't Rauch wonder about that.  Oh, it's easy to dismiss "elements" of the tea party as racist.  In fact, I think that analysts like Rauch really want to, because the nature of the organization is so interesting.  It's more palatable to study and analyze a thing not fundamentally hobbled by something like a racist root structure.  Sometimes people just show up with crazy signs!  Sure, Jonathan, that's what they do.

I have a feeling the tea partiers will flame out at some point, in large part because of the racism inherent in the genetic structure of the organization.  But also because they don't actually want to govern, and most voting Americans will eventually see through this rather silly paradox.  Take back our country is a great sound bite, but when you're elected you actually have to do things.  Pass budgets, create policy, develop laws, advocate.  

We live in a representative democracy.  Who exactly are we supposed to take the country back from?  Moderate, thoughtful leaders who understand the process like Mike Castle?  Ourselves?

Off the Radar Meet the New Boss (Same as the Old Boss) Edition

I think it's kind of funny that Newt Gingrich is back.  Eugene Robinson is wondering if he's actually crazy, or if it is all part of an elaborate show:

Is Newt Gingrich just pretending to have lost his mind, or has he actually gone around the bend?

His lunacy certainly seems genuine enough. It's one thing to be a rhetorical bomb-thrower, as Gingrich has long fancied himself, and another to lob damp squibs of pure nonsense into the fray. The man's contributions to the public discourse have become increasingly unhinged.

"...increasingly unhinged," indeed.  But I think it's all for show.  

(I hate being that one blogger who always says "back in the day..." but here I am, anyway.)  Back in the early to mid-90s, Gingrich was a Democrat's Public Enemy Number One.  He was the Clinton arch-nemesis, the anti-Clinton, Clinton's perfect foil.  And in many ways, he's the reason Clinton got re-elected (more on re-elections in a minute).  Gingrich was so far right, so extreme, so wildly conservative that Clinton's middle-of-the-road, Third Way, economically sensible policies appealed to most Americans.  That, and most Americans saw through the hypocritical personal attacks on President Clinton (despite what he invited upon himself).

Although I agree with Mustang Bobby that Gingrich is embittered and probably a bit paranoid in the mold of Richard Nixon, my sense is that he's trying to mount a comeback.  Call it Gingrich 2.0.  

And he may not be too far off base, at least from a politically calculating point of view.  If I were a Republican consultant (ugh), one of the things I'd advise party leaders to consider after the inevitable collaps the Tea Party idiots and their childish antics is some adult leadership.  I'd advise that someone like Gingrich could mold himself in that fashion: a leader who has been around the block, so to speak, but who still appeals to the worst angels of conservative thought and dogma. 
 
Anyway, don't be surprised to see Gingrich branded soon as a "GOP elder statesman."  Such as he is.   

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Speaking of re-election, I wondered when this would churn up: the inevitable yet silly rumors that Obama may not seek re-election in 2012.  Steve Kornacki at Salon does a pretty good job of shooting it all down right out of the box:

Politico's Roger Simon has a new column that serves as a useful preview of the inane commentary we will likely be flooded with after November's election.

The basic idea: A "big-time Democrat" who has "hardly ever been wrong" tells Simon that the 2010 election is a lost cause for Barack Obama and the Democrats and that it's time for the president to start worrying about how to save himself and his party in 2012. "But the biggest fear of some of those close to him," this unnamed Democrat adds, "is that he might not really want to go on in 2012, that he might not really care."

Pardon my skepticism here, but maybe I'd take Simon's piece a little more seriously if it weren't so easy to see coming. But it is the result of the panicky thinking that has long accompanied weak presidential approval ratings and rough midterm elections.

Yeah, I'm with Steve on this one.  Again, the old-timer is whipping out another well-worn reminisence from back in the day, but I do remember the Clinton-won't-run! rumors in 1996.  From the Salon piece:

"The president will come under increasing pressure early in 1995 to declare that he is not a candidate for re-election. At first thought, President Clinton is almost certain to reject such a notion as being inconsistent with his off-the-floor, Comeback Kid persona. But as he considers the unpleasant alternatives, he will take it seriously."

I was a lot younger then, and I panicked like hell when I heard that.  Of course Clinton ran again.  And of course he trounced Bob Dole.

First question: who are these know-it-all, never-wrong Democrats? 

To be slightly fairer to the Roger Simon Politico piece, I think his larger point is that Republicans are set to have gains in the House and Senate, if not take one or both of them over.  This presents a problem for President Obama inasmuch as A.) it can be taken as a referendum on his record in office these last two years, and B.) it'll be harder to work with Republicans running (or at least more influential in) another branch of government. 

Now I refer you back to Gingrich, 1994's so-called Republican Revolution, and the "Contract with America."  How did that one work out for Bill Clinton in 1996, again?  

Just to be clear: I'm not saying a Republican Congress is a good thing.  You sneeze in the Obama White House, and those jokers will investigate it.  It'll be awful.  But I will not underestimate the reliable Republican modus operandi to overreach.  Not to mention the fact that they just can't govern.   

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You know what's funny?  I did see this "story" about John Cusack calling for a satanic death cult outside FOX news headquarters or whatever.  

Here's one thing about me.  In my real life job, one of my many job functions is to cull through news and search for relevant news stories about what we do.  I've been doing that for a long, long time for a lot of different organizations.  Poing being, without sounding too arrogant, I've gotten pretty good at it.  I have a media filter better attuned that some folks, anyway.  

I remember the headline about Cusack, and there were a number of red flags, so I never persued the story.

First of all, it involved Twitter.  Now, I'm on Twitter, but it is mildly reluctantly and in something of a personal beta phase.  As with all social media, I take whatever is gleaned from that with a pretty decent grain of salt.  It's awfully easy to twist things -- and quickly, as Matt Taibbi points out.  

Second: John Cusack?  Really?  Look, it's nothing personal against John Cusack.  Better Off Dead, One Crazy Summer, and The Sure Thing are a triumvirate of cinematic masterpieces of my youth.  City Hall is one of the best political movies I know, and one I recommend to everyone.  I think Runaway Jury is a wildly underappreciated Grishom adaptation.

That being said... John Cusack?  Huh.  I never had him pegged as the guy who would scare the bejeezus out of the Republican Party and those purveyors of bogus news, FOX.    

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I know everyone is all caught up in football.  I have just never been able to get into football.  Besides, I'm kind of getting hooked on the Tampa Bay Rays and their playoff run adrenaline rush.  It's almost too much to take.

 -- More later --

Remember Those Lost on 9/11

Hope you take a moment today and remember those lost on 9/11 -- whether they be white, black, Hispanic, Christian, Muslim, Buddhist, agnostic, atheist, or whatever.  A lot of people -- too many people -- died that day.  Let us take the time remember them and honor them, and those who we've lost since fighting in the name of our country.