Well, I said I didn't know how it'd break down there in Iowa, and you know, I'm sort of glad I didn't guess. The reality is so much better than any scenario I could've dreamed up.
At this point, you already know that Romney "won" by such a slim margin -- eight votes -- any reasonable thinking person would be hard-pressed to actually call it a win. Rick Santorum, who has no more chance of being President of the United States than me, came in second, Ron Paul third and Gingrich fourth, which I guess is enough to keep him going.
I guess fifth and sixth place for Perry and Bachmann respectively isn't enough to keep them going. Though any reasonable thinking person knew her campaign ended months ago, Bachmann dropped out today, and Rick Perry is headed home to Texas to think about it. He says he's staying in, but I'm not sure what half-thinking Republican donor would view him as a good investment.
And going forward, fundraising will become more and more important. Just consider how much Rick Perry spent per vote -- $480. He vastly outspent his rivals -- more than Romney, Santorum and Paul, combined. If he's outspending his nearest competitor by nearly five to one and all he has to show for it is a distant fifth place Iowa showing, you tell me why you'd ever contribute to his campaign. I figure his march towards South Carolina (and Florida; more on that in a minute) is either a long-shot hope that those southern states will carry a southern son, or he'll make the ticket as VP, or both. As a brief aside, that's vaguely heartening news about politics in general: that money doesn't always win.
Coming up on the 10th is the New Hampshire Primary. Now, I assume that Mitt has this one tied up. The guy's got a vacation home there (can you say "1%"). He was governor of Massachusetts just next door. More to the point, the Republican voters of New Hampshire are, I think, different than their Iowa brothers and sisters. At least I'm guessing they will be. Will they continue to propel a whacko ideologue like Rick Santorum? (Honestly, outlawing contraception? Not abortion, people -- all contraception...)
Well, it may not matter, because up next will be South Carolina on the 21st of this month, followed by Florida's closed primary on the 31st.
Florida. That's fifty delegates right there. We're followed by a series of caucuses (binding and non-binding) in Nevada, Maine, Colorado, and Minnesota throughout February. The next primaries are Arizona and Michigan on the 28th of February.
You know, I heard that Mitt was on some radio show here in the Tampa Bay area this morning. Probably a pretty good reason for that.
I don't think it's over-the-top to say that Florida could lock it up for the Republicans. Even if Mitt does so, the legacy of this primary season remains the fight he had to wage to get there.
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