The Maps Look Good for Fitzgerald and Kriseman (Part I)

You may not know it, but Florida is undergoing a massive tectonic political shift.  

It's called redistricting, and it happens every so often -- when the Census comes out, actually -- and it's a big enough deal that it makes and breaks political careers all over the country.  The general idea is that as population centers shift and change, the boundary lines of those who represent us change as well.  This can present a problem when a politician is redistricted out of his or her seat.  If Politician A lives on the south end of Main Street, and the Legislature redraws the map for that, say, State House seat further north, well... Politician A needs to find a realtor, or primary the person who already represents their "new" district.

It is actually a remarkably complex process, and I don't pretend to know much -- if anything -- about it.  I can tell you that if there were any reason whatsoever for me to feel sorry for the Republican bozos running things in Tallahassee, this would be it.  Redistricting is just not easy, no matter who's in power.

So with that sort of explanation and pseudo-caveat out of the way, let me also say that studying the maps is one of my all-time favorite activities.  And, without sounding too full of myself, I'm pretty good at it.  Taking in the map and strategizing about who lives where, where canvassing will do the most good, and targeted mail is, in my weird world, kind of fun.

Anyway, there are a couple of new "maps" for two of my favorite politicians, and I could not be more pleased with how they turned out.  

First up is Representative Rick Kriseman, a Democrat in what is currently District 53.  Rep. Kriseman -- my State Rep. -- has an interesting map as it stands today.  It is what I'd call a diverse map, because Lealman is pretty different from where I live, Gulfport.  There's a good chunk of St. Petersburg, there, and Lealman, too.  

Don't get me wrong: Kriseman has done well in this district, but the one the Legislature has put forward for him would be even better, I suspect.  

I should say that Representative Kriseman has put out a statement saying that he believes all of these maps are unconstitutional...

...but if the Florida Supreme Court affirms that Amendments 5 and 6 were followed to the letter and spirit of the law, I will be satisfied with the maps and honored to run for and represent whatever district my home is in. Whether the district leans Democrat or Republican, I am confident that the voters will look past party labels and vote for the person that will best represent them and fight for them day in and day out.

Before I explain why I think this is a better seat for Kriseman -- what they will call the new District 69 (which, ironically, is the seat Keith Fitzgerald held down in Sarasota; more on his Congressional race in Part II), I should also point out that Peter Schorsch of Saint Petersblog thinks that this could be bad news for Kriseman:

I wrote last week about the increasing speculation about who will run for the District 69 seat in the Florida House of Representatives.  The seat is currently occupied by Democratic Rep. Rick Kriseman.  However, under the redistricting plan about to be approved by the Legislature, the seat would actually have a slight (+1) advantage for Republicans.  I’m hearing that local Republican powerhouses Kathleen Peters, Mayor of South Pasadena, and Joe Triolo, Chair of the Pinellas County Housing Authority, are both eyeing the seat.  Rep. Larry Ahern is currently drawn into the seat, but he is moving to the open seat north of Kriseman’s.

The conventional wisdom had been that the Republicans would wait to see if Kriseman decided to run for Mayor before jumping in to the race.  But the way the seat is being redrawn — and the absolute dislike for Kriseman in Tallahassee — has turned that conventional wisdom on its head.  Now, it’s a matter of seeing if Kriseman STAYS in the race in the face of a strong challenge.

Republican "powerhouse," may be overstating it a touch (though the fact that she is VP of the Clearwater Regional Chamber of Commerce certainly helps).  Look, both Mayor Peters and Mr. Triolo are accomplished folks, and they may well decide to run against Representative Kriseman in this new District 69 -- but even though there's a slight Republican advantage, as Peter notes, I think the real advantage belongs to Kriseman.

You need to remember, Rick is from closer to this part of his current district and is more in-line with the new district than the Republican advantage number alone would suggest.  I mean, the guy went to Pasadena Elementary, for crying out loud.  Laugh if you want, but these personal connections to the district add up.  Consider that the new district also encompasses Temple Beth-El, which is just north of Kathleen Peter's South Pasadena.  It is incredibly important that the place where Kriseman and his family worship would now be encompassed in his district.  I'm not saying the guy will campaign at Temple, but I am saying the folks who come up from Pasadena and St. Petersburg and Gulfport to worship will now see their own Representative, and not the one from the neighboring district.

It gets even better for Kriseman: in 2000, he was appointed to a vacancy on the St. Petersburg City Council.  He won the seat in an election in 2001, and was reelected in 2003 with more than 76 percent of the vote.  This new district brings in large, active neighborhoods that voted for Rick in the 2001 and 2003 elections.  These are neighborhoods he represented for 6 years.  

One of those neighborhoods is the Azalea neighborhood, and Kriseman made a lot of friends there when he went to work trying to get neighborhood polluter Raytheon to do the right thing.

One last quick interesting exercise.  Take another look at what we could call Kriseman's "new" map, the one for the new District 69.  Now take a look at the precincts which would be contained within that map.  

In 2008, Obama won Pinellas County with 53.3% of the vote.

He won this new State House district with 53.6%.

Couple of big "ifs": If the courts uphold these districts, and if Representative Kriseman decides to seek re-election, I'd say he's got a real good shot at representing us in Tallahassee again.  

Comments

[the coffee philosopher]

I'd almost rather see him run for mayor, though. He's the sort of person that a revitalized needs making smart steps for higher office (as in not immediately running for state senate or congress, but going from city council to state house to... mayor of an important Florida city?).

If Bill Young retired today, the Democratic bench would be pretty thin (sure, there are some popular Dems, but someone capable of putting together 300k in the first full quarter after filing? not so much).

Flash forward a cycle or two and Democrat with both deep contacts in institutional donor community in south Pinellas (for raising those $500-$2000 checks) AND a good reputation statewide among Democrats (for online and small donor fundraising).

I'd say that's better for long term prospects than having him in the state house for another couple of years.

[Benjamin Kirby]

I can't disagree with you, cp. I'd love to have him run for mayor (and as a quasi-aside, did you see that Bill Foster confirmed today he is running for re-election?). Kriseman would make a great mayor.

I should say, I think he will make a great mayor. I think it is his destiny, it's just a matter of when.
Which means we're really talking about timing, and to your points, yes -- seeking the mayorship today may be better for his prospects in his future...

Unless it's not. I dunno... if Peter's right and someone gives Kriseman a good run, wouldn't that serve him well in what would almost assuredly be a contentious, tough mayor's race later?

[the coffee philosopher]

He could, but he could also trigger some donor/supporter fatigue by going directly from a 2012 legislative race to a 2013 mayoral race.