Sunday, July 22, 2012
Matt --
If you're like me, you spent a lot of this weekend hugging your wife and kids.
It's not that the horrifying massacre in Aurora, Colorado is out-of-bounds for politics. But it does wipe the slate clean -- there's an Etch-a-Sketch joke in here, I'm afraid -- of all other issues in which we have happily been immersing ourselves. When I look at the Spencerian Blue feed, it gets quiet over the course of this weekend, fills up with stuff about the shooting around the end of last Friday, and that's about it. Bain stuff is nowhere to be seen in the last couple of days. Off-shore accounts are nowhere to be seen.
As you know, the president was in Florida when news of the shooting broke, and he left after making a statement. Everyone agrees that was the right thing to do -- campaigning is for another day. Still, it may feel a bit odd to have a discussion this week in the framework of two campaigns. However, what these two campaigns say about what happened in Aurora at the Dark Knight Rises premiere matters. And it may well affect the trajectory of the rest of the election. Indeed, I would argue if this isn't the week to do what we're doing, then why do it at all?
As you also know, there is an often uncomfortable truth about politics: it is frequently as much about the reaction to events entirely out of control of the candidates as it is about framing themselves or each other.
Will Team Obama be able to go back to asking Romney to release his tax returns? Maybe. But when? Not any time real soon.
And do they even want to?
I would guess that this week will be consumed in large part by events in Colorado. There will be agonizing funerals filled with sorrow beyond measure. Guns will come up. Mental health issues -- and how we treat people with severe illness, and their access to care -- will come up. A lot of it will be worthwhile discussion, even beyond the political arena. A lot of it will not, I'm sorry to say.
It's moments like these when people look to our leaders for comfort, for guidance, for just a little bit of sense in a thing that is utterly senseless. How will Obama do this? I'm not sure yet. And so I am leaving you with two things, Matt. One is a prompt to visit the White House website. Today, they have the four different banner slides at the top. Here's what they are:
1. A picture of Obama and a link to his weekly address to the nation on the tragedy in Colorado
2. A link to the text of his statement on the tragedy in Colorado
3. A genuinely lovely, up-close picture of he and Mrs. Obama (they're at the USA basketball game, but it's all about the image...)
The next one if four simple words, Matt, and when you see it, I think you'll get the idea of just where they may be going, what they may be dovetailing:
4. Middle Class Tax Cuts
Matt, my history with faith and religion has taken a lot of dreary twists and turns, and long suffered through my deserts of ignorance. However, two bright spots: one, attending the Unitarian Universalist Church with Duncan a few years ago, which we plan on going back to some day soon. This makes me happy. Two, I read a couple of books on Buddhism some time ago, and I won't pretend to fully understand it, but I can tell you that many of the words of the Buddha are some of the most profound -- and comforting -- you'll read.
Prayer for Freedom From Suffering
May all beings everywhere plagued
with sufferings of body and mind
quickly be freed from their illnesses.
May those frightened cease to be afraid,
and may those bound be free.
May the powerless find power,
and may people think of befriending
one another.
May those who find themselves in trackless,
fearful wilderness--
the children, the aged, the unprotected --
be guarded by beneficent celestials,
and may they swiftly attain Buddhahood.
-- The Buddha
Go hug Erin and the boys again.
Best,
BJK

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Monday, July 23, 2012
Ben -
So many things to respond to... Let me begin by saying that the thing in Colorado was horrible and any attempt to divine meaning from a senseless tragedy like this is doomed to fail. Like you, I held my family a little closer this weekend - and totally ignored the political world. But there is a sad reality in all of it... Nothing of substance will come of this. We are too far into the campaign season for either guy to stick their neck out. Too many of the swing states are perceived as pro-gun - and the NRA has done such a magnificent job of hijacking that issue that it isn't even possible to make rational statements like "there's no legitimate civilian use for an AR-15 assault rifle, why should we sell them at sporting goods stores?". The dude bought it at a freaking Gander Mountain. It isn't like he had to go black market for it...
Anyway, as I said I don't see anything coming of this politically and as callous as it seems, I would bet you that it is totally off the radar of the political world within two weeks (and only hangs around that long due to the timing of funerals). As if to prove the point, the campaigns were right back at it on Monday morning. My feed was all abuzz that it was David Axelrod who jumped in first. Let's just say it didn't take long for my feed to go right back to attacking Obama on "you didn't build this" as soon as there was the slightest justification. No, it was too good of a line of attack, too good of a rallying cry to let a little massacre stop it.
The other theme in my feed today is the sputtering economy - which is entirely Obama's fault and could have been avoided had he only been meeting more regularly with his jobs council. Or something.
I have to say, I do not think I am going to have a lot of patience for the partisan potshots this week. That sad loop of campaign parry and thrust will be there when I am ready for it. Maybe I am an exception, but I am just not interested in political bickering and point scoring right now. Not that I want to dwell on Aurora. I very much do not. I am just sick of seeing stuff like this, like so many other things, happen without the ability to have an honest dialogue. The reason we can't, as a nation, have an honest dialogue is because some political hack is always looking to score political points and it makes politicians and their staff terrified to say anything controversial, to step outside of orthodoxy for a minute. So when something tragic occurs, instead of digging deep and learning, we dig deep to bury our heads. And when we emerge, nothing changes.
I do have to say, I appreciated your prayer. When taking graduate coursework at Notre Dame, I took a class that compared and examined Buddhist meditation and Christian contemplative prayer. It was fascinating - and I learned quite a bit about Buddhism. The freedom of mind and spirit that can be achieved through that type of prayer - just like your prayer mentions - can be quite powerful and illuminating. For me, I always come back to the 23rd Psalm. A priest friend asked me to memorize it once and learning it, repeating it, spending time with it brought me peace in a time of personal turmoil. So for everyone out there examining things beyond politics this week, I give you the following:
The Lord is my shepherd,
There is nothing I lack.
In green pastures he makes me lie down;
To still waters he leads me;
He restores my soul.
He guides me along right paths for the sake of his name.
Even though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death;
I will fear no evil, for you are with me;
Your rod and your staff, they comfort me.
You set a table before me
In front of my enemies;
You anoint my head with oil,
My cup overflows.
Indeed, goodness and mercy will pursue me,
All the days of my life;
I will dwell in the house of the Lord for endless days.
I have to say, there is no doubt my cup overflows. As for the families of the victims, I offer the words of Saint Paul in Romans, chapter 8, verses 38 and 39.
Peace,
MBS

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Tuesday, July 24, 2012
Matt --
Like you, I am not exactly channeling my inner David Axelrod this week. Of course, Axe himself has been somewhat silent in the Spencerian Blue feed by my accounting.
But you know who hasn't?
The Vice President.
Somewhere amid our VP chatter of last week, I mentioned Joe Biden bringing "balance" to the ticket, especially with regards to foreign policy (which seems odd now in light of how much Obama has done in the foreign policy realm). Well, it would appear they are still using your old Uncle Joe for just that: foreign policy credibility.
Why? Because Romney is on his way to several countries around the world -- to show his ostensible foreign policy chops, I guess. Of course, the man has already made his first gaffe with the Australians-- most notably because Australia is not even a country he's going to visit on this trip. (Josh Marshall, who has been doing some of the best reporting of the campaign at his Talking Points Memo has a better take here.) At any rate, Vice President Biden has been out front on Romney's travel, hammering him pretty good at the Veteran's of Foreign Wars convention, and on the Twitter feed for sure.
This trip has the potential to be a catastrophe for Romney. First of all, Romney has little foreign policy experience. Virtually none, in fact. And the little foreign travel he has done is either connected directly to his Mormon faith (obviously played down by the campaign) and the missionary nature of their religion, or his time at Bain Capital, when he developed a lot of business in... South America. Won't a foreign trip designed to boost your credibility on the world stage actually just remind everyone of what you've been trying to get them to forget over the last two months: that you parked a shit-ton of cash in off-shore bank accounts across the globe to avoid paying taxes.
Two, there's the real potential for gaffes or even outright humiliations for Romney, who admittedly is downplaying this trip somewhat. I don't think he can do much damage in the U.K, or Poland for that matter (though Poland is only a Belarus and Ukraine away from our "number one geopolitical foe," Russia!). He's going to visit Israel, and things there are complicated and sensitive. At best.
If I'm being realistic, I don't really think Romney will screw it up. But he is going to be gone -- effectively off the campaign trail.
Now, I know I just said on Sunday that it'll take a week or so before either side gets back into the swing of things on the campaign, but it looks like they're going to try to get things rolling again, anyway. The Obama folks are back with not only strong criticisms of Romney and his weaknesses with respect to foreign policy, they're back defending the "you didn't build that" thing -- which you said would be a tough one, and maybe it has been.
I suspect the Obama folks are as happy as can be that Romney is going overseas. This allows them to fill the messaging vacuum he'll leave behind. And they'll fill it. And then some.
So here's your prompt, if you're up for it. How will the Spencerian Red side bolster the Romney trip, if at all? Or will it be back to full-throttle attacks on Obama by week's end?
The echo chamber's not always a pretty place, but it's the place we know.
Back to you.
BJK

# # # #
Wednesday, July 25, 2012
Matt --
I fully realize I'm messing around with our Red-Blue-Red-Blue back and forth by going out of turn, but this is a good update to what I sent you last night.
The statement out of the White House today was regarding Romney's foreign trip.
You know who it was from? Not POTUS.
Vice President Biden.
It's like they're monitoring our emails.
Now, granted, a lot of this is in response to a Romney adviser saying this, via Think Progress:
In remarks that may prompt accusations of racial insensitivity, one suggested that Mr Romney was better placed to understand the depth of ties between the two countries than Mr Obama, whose father was from Africa.
“We are part of an Anglo-Saxon heritage, and he feels that the special relationship is special,” the adviser said of Mr Romney, adding: “The White House didn’t fully appreciate the shared history we have.”
In my previous email, I said, "This trip has the potential to be a catastrophe for Romney." I sort of regretted writing that at the time, because I thought I was overstating it a bit.
I no longer regret my choice of words. The guy has given us two gaffes and he's not even wheel's up yet.
Of course, the Vice President's response was well-crafted, and played up the idea that Washington has somehow been cold to our friends in the U.K. -- didn't "fully appreciate the shared history we have," whatever the fuck that means.
The full statement of the VP is worth reading:
“Despite his promises that politics stops at the water’s edge, Governor Romney’s wheels hadn’t even touched down in London before his advisors were reportedly playing politics with international diplomacy, attempting to create daylight between the United States and the United Kingdom where none exists. Our special relationship with the British is stronger than ever and we are proud to work hand-in-hand with Prime Minister Cameron to confront every major national security challenge we face today. On every major issue -- from Afghanistan to missile defense, from the fight against international terrorism to our success in isolating countries like Iran whose nuclear programs threaten peace and stability -- we’ve never been more in sync. The comments reported this morning are a disturbing start to a trip designed to demonstrate Governor Romney’s readiness to represent the United States on the world’s stage. Not surprisingly, this is just another feeble attempt by the Romney campaign to score political points at the expense of this critical partnership. This assertion is beneath a presidential campaign.”
Watch for more. I have a feeling the VP may just be getting warmed up.
Best,
BJK

# # # #
Wednesday, July 25, 2012
Ben -
The #youdidntbuildthat furor has only gotten louder on the Spencerian Red feed this week. Small business owners from around the country are joining Team Romney for events. This may not be Dukakis on a tank, but I think the jury is still out just how bad this will be for Obama. At the very least it is ugly for POTUS in the short term and I think it ties in with the Romney trip overseas in a weird way. You see, this is just a literal exemplification of the GOP strategy: keep Mitt out of it and relentlessly attack Obama as bad on the economy, bad for the middle class and anti-business. It is actually easier with the Mittbot out of the country and out of the way.
The silliness of the foreign policy attacks are another matter. Team Romney does not really have a frontal attack of Obama in the foreign policy arena, so they gin up mini-controversies like "I can't believe the White House leaks things for political gain!!!!! That has never been done!!!!!" and "Obama didn't visit Israel in his first term, so he must be a bad partner (don't ask what policies make that true, just know he hasn't been there as President)" and the most recent one - "my special feelings toward the UK are more special than your special feelings". If those are your big three punches, you might as well throw in the towel. I have written about this before, I think that the GOP has totally lost control of the foreign policy message. Those three lines will certainly not win it back.
One more theme in the @SpencerianRed feed is a recent Gallup poll on voter enthusiasm. Says its up for Republicans and down for Dems. If this holds until Novemeber it could be a bad sign. However, I think that every article concerning this topic should begin eight his caveat: "Despite Mitt Romney topping the ticket...."
Finally, to answer your question about how the Spencerian Red feed will handle the Romney foreign trip. I think they will largely ignore it. What possible strong narrative can they build off a trip to The UK, Poland and Israel? They will go for death by 1000 paper cuts using the issues I covered above, but there is not much else to do. Any other line of attack veers a little too close to reigniting the offshore/Swiss bank account storyline that is an absolute loser for them... By the way, do you think anyone in Chicago is mapping out the travel route from London to Warsaw and plugging in distance to Zurich and Geneva? I bet they are...
I have added a few new follows to spice up my feed:
@RNCResearch
@Timodc (RNC spox)
@Heritage (Foundation)
They should add a little fun to the mix.
My final question for you this week: Is there a real, legitimate option for Romney VP that does anything to burnish his foreign policy cred? If he jacks up this trip and this narrative, do they need to widen their search parameters to find one? Can they really cede the entire issue of foreign policy and count on the economy to carry them through?
I built this @SpencerianRed feed!
MBS

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Wednesday, July 25, 2012
Matt --
I saw a tweet the other day -- may have been outside the Spencerian Blue feed, though -- and someone noted that this is the first election in many, many cycles (think Hoover versus Roosevelt) when a military veteran hasn't been on one side or the other at the top of the ticket.
I suppose I subscribe to the general conventional wisdom that foreign policy won't matter much in this election, but I don't know. With the war in Iraq wound down, and the one in Afghanistan winding down, our international priorities are changing, too. The face of national security is necessarily changing. The American public says it does care very much about that stuff... until it does. Somewhere in the back of the mind of even the most ill-informed voter is what is happening on the world stage. Our global community is just too small now.
And with that, I accept your challenge, because I do suspect the Romney people are interested in a strong person who could blunt the sort of quiet sharpness of the Obama foreign policy juggernaut (lead by the corpse of Osama bin Laden).
Indeed, I can think of a Republican who would bolster the Romney Campaign's foreign policy credibility, by a factor of infinity.
Let's draw that person, shall we? A veteran, of course. A war time veteran, even better. A war time hero, best yet. From a long-serving military family. A man who has a lot of that other stuff we talked about, too -- Washington "street cred," as it were. A man who, by virtue of what he's done in the past, is readily seen as able to step up and serve as President should something happen to a President Romney.
That man exists.
Matthew, I give you: Senator John McCain.
It's the only name that gives me worse chills than Haley Barbour.
And don't give me the age thing, because to that I say: Dick Cheney. And don't give me the he already ran against the Obama/Biden team and lost. True, but that's what makes him qualified to be president. He's run for office and snagged the nomination before.
I know, I know. Out there. But it has been an out there week, I think, and I figured, why not?
Because I butted in so rudely before, I'll let you have the last word this week, if you like.
BJK

# # # #
Thursday, July 26, 2012
Ben -
How very gentlemanly of you to offer the last word. Since I am never, ever short of opinions, I will gladly take it.
No way McCain gets the nod. I just don't see how another unreliable moderate Republican will fly with the current GOP. If I was part of the Team Romney VP selection group, my selection criteria would be this (in order):
- Cultural Conservative
- Disciplined
- Christian - preferably evangelical
- DC connected
- Fiscal Conservative
- Foreign Policy Experience
In a way, I think that I just refuted my own argument about the importance of foreign policy. It will make the final debate very interesting, as it is theoretically supposed to focus on foreign policy. My guess is that we will see quite a bit of non-answering and pivoting security/military questions to economic ones. Romney has no chance for a Brandenburg Gate moment like Obama's in 2008, so there really is no game changer for him.
Unless something big happens, I just do not see an emphasis on foreign policy. On the other hand, if the economy continues to stagnate and Chicago feels as though they are falling behind, we just might see that Osama bin Laden "third eye" photo pop up sometime in September or October.
To round back to the VP discussion, there is only one way that Romney can take some ground in the foreign policy arena - and that is through the VP. As mentioned above, I just do not see that happening in this cycle UNLESS there is a homerun, bust the light tower, end of The Natural moment to be had with a surprise pick. And there is. This candidate fits your McCain mold, but is much, much better from the Team Romney perspective. I will trump your suggestions with one that will certainly give you more nightmares than McCain or Barbour.... Are you ready for a Romney trump card/jackpot selection?
Colin Powell.
Boom goes the dynamite.
Enjoy your weekend of cold sweats and night terrors about that possibility.
Oh, and my best to the wife and kids.
Matt

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Welcome to Into the Echo Chamber, the weekly electronic conversation of the 2012 presidential campaign as viewed from two Twitter feeds. Matt Spence is monitoring the Twitterverse of the Romney Campaign, Republicans, and the "red" side of the aisle at @SpencerianRed. I am monitoring the tweets of the Obama Team, Democrats using @SpencerianBlue. Our email-based back-and-forths are posted here on Thursdays.
You are, as always, invited to join the discussion, either in the comments below or by emailing Spencerian Red or Spencerian Blue.