by Benjamin J. Kirby
I've never really watched the Joe Scarborough show, and now we don't have MSNBC, so I don't go out of my way to find the clips online. I must tell you, though, that this had me laughing:
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And if Mitt Romney keeps saying stuff like this, especially in places like Ohio, then he can expect that people will never chant his name:
"We have got to reform our tax system," Romney said at a morning event here. "Small businesses most typically pay taxes at the individual tax rate. And so our individual income taxes are the ones I want to reform. Make them simpler. I want to bring the rates down. By the way, don't be expecting a huge cut in taxes because I'm also going to lower deductions and exemptions. But by bringing rates down we will be able to let small businesses keep more of their money so they can hire more people."
The comments were either a flub on Romney's part or an admission that many of the deductions and exemptions that he will have to target in order to make his tax plan deficit neutral will end up affecting the middle class.
The gang charged with keeping this guy on message must either cry themselves to sleep at night or just stay drunk all the time.
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A must-read interview of Five Thirty Eight's Nate Silver at Talking Points Memo:
Well, we have Obama with a 77 percent chance on the site. My personal prediction would be pretty close to that. Those would be the odds I would be willing to establish at a betting line. In the book I say we should try to make probabilistic forecasts and almost look at ourselves as being sort of bookmakers or gamblers. That’s the closest compromise between the uncertainties in the real world and our ability to perceive them. That’s as well as you can do. At this point it does look like we have a clear favorite, but we could be surprised.
This guy has pretty much written a large part of the polling gospel for campaigns and elections. I know I've been saying this a long time, but it's true: we still have a long way to go before Election Day. A lot could happen -- but the window is closing.
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Speaking of polling, Kos himself of DailyKos fame has a snapshot of where we are in the battleground states.
Right now, today, it is not looking good for Mitt Romney.
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Finally, also via TPM, this:
So there you go. Early voting has begun in many states.
-- More later --