The Spencerian

Polling: It Held Me Spellbound

by Benjamin J. Kirby

Happy Halloween.

Short post tonight, because I have a lot of candy to gorge myself on to hand out to trick-or-treaters.  

I think when the story of this election gets written, someone smarter than me should take note that much of it was almost assuredly driven by quasi-corrupt, partisan pollsters (like the creeps I wrote about the other day).  They're not polling people to glean valuable data and discern trends and likely outcomes in important swing-states -- they're putting together fodder for the idiots at Fox News to blather on about.  

And I think once that's made clear, people are going to be moderately outraged (only moderately, because I think more than anything, people are burned out on this stuff).

So there's been some recent obnoxiousness about the work Nate Silver does at Five Thirty Eight, which has Obama with a 77.4% chance of winning right now.  Silver uses science and math -- the stuff which President Clinton likes so much -- to show these trends and predict fairly accurate outcomes (he was something like one state off last time around).

This level of certainty drives the regular punditocracy insane with rage.  After all, how can you report on a NECK AND NECK RACE!!! when President Obama has a seventy-seven percenet chance of winning re-election? 

How is it, by the way, a numbers nerd like Silver has earned the wrath of so many in the political talking head universe?  After all, it can't just be because the guy is making some prediction -- essentially doing his job.  

I think it's because he's written a book, The Signal and the Noise, which I have not read but will.  It's about how predictive models work... and don't work.  

The first thing that popped into my head was the magician who shows how the trick is done.  Other magicians hate that guy.  After all, what's the appeal of magic if you know there's a string, or a trap-door, or whatever.

Anyway, I have a feeling Silver will be pretty close to right again this time around.  If not, that'd be pretty scary...

Stay safe tonight and watch out for the ghouls, goblins and witches.

The Staged Events & You Can Help Sandy Victims

by Benjamin J. Kirby

I've been in the communications business a long time.  I have been involved in campaigns and elections for a long time, too.  

Both of those things rely on your instinct to know when to take advantage of the moment -- the circumstances of which you often don't control.

But for every time you execute the skill and craft successfully around an opportunity, nearly as many times you need to know when to either do it right, or back off.

Everyone admitted at the outset that Hurricane Sandy and the awful aftermath she left behind would put Team Romney in a bit of a bind.  He couldn't campaign.  But everyone knows he couldn't stop campaigning, either.  

So how to look like a leader in a tough moment for America?  

Personally, I thought the opportunity for Romney was to sit in a Romney Campaign call center in Boston and order everyone making phone calls for campaign cash to turn around and spend the week making calls for monetary donations to the Red Cross.   

He didn't do that.  In fact, what he did was exactly the wrong thing to do: he did a campaign photo-op.

Buzzfeed -- who it must be noted, has been the breakout Internet star of this campaign -- has a detailed piece on how the event didn't quite go as planned for Romney:

The plan was for supporters to bring hurricane relief supplies to the event, and then deliver the bags of canned goods, packages of diapers, and cases of water bottles to the candidate, who would be perched behind a table along with a slew of volunteers and his Ohio right-hand man, Senator Rob Portman. To complete the project and photo-op, Romney would lead his crew in carrying the goods out of the gymnasium and into the Penske rental truck parked outside.

But the last-minute nature of the call for donations left some in the campaign concerned that they would end up with an empty truck. So the night before the event, campaign aides went to a local Wal Mart and spent $5,000 on granola bars, canned food, and diapers to put on display while they waited for donations to come in, according to one staffer. (The campaign confirmed that it "did donate supplies to the relief effort," but would not specify how much it spent.)

Jed Lewison at DailyKos explains why stuff isn't the best thing to donate at a time like this:

It makes for a nice visual unless you realize that it was entirely staged to support Mitt Romney's personal political ambitions. And in case you have any remaining doubts, keep in mind that the Red Cross doesn't even want the stuff that Romney was urging people to donate:

 Red Cross tells us grateful for Romney donation but prefer people send money or donate blood dont collect goods NOT best way to help #Sandy
— @mitchellreports via web

The problem is simply logistics: in the midst of a disaster like Hurricane Sandy, the last thing the Red Cross wants is to sort through a hodge podge of donations and figure out where things should go. But cash donations don't look as good on camera, so Romney asked for stuff that he thought would be more photogenic, even though it wasn't the best way to help the victims of Hurricane Sandy—because this event was about him, not about them.

This is backed up by the Red Cross themselves:

Unfortunately, due to logistical constraints the Red Cross does not accept or solicit individual donations or collections of items. Items such as collected food, used clothing and shoes must be sorted, cleaned, repackaged and transported which impedes the valuable resources of money, time, and personnel.

The Red Cross does accept bulk quantities of product and services when these items meet our service delivery needs. These donations typically come from manufacturers, suppliers, and/or distributors that can package the items in bulk, palletize them and transport them directly to Red Cross sites. Financial contributions allow the Red Cross to purchase exactly what is needed for a disaster relief operation. Monetary donations also enable the Red Cross to purchase relief supplies close to the disaster site which avoids delays and transportation costs in getting basic necessities to disaster victims. Because the affected community has generally experienced significant economic loss, purchasing relief supplies in or close to the disaster site also helps to stimulate the weakened local economy.

Problem is, the Romney Campaign -- rightly -- doesn't think Mitt stroking a check to the Red Cross is much of a photo-op.  

It gets worse, of course. 

Romney's VP selection, Congressman Paul Ryan -- who has already had his brush with photo-ops gone wrong -- couldn't get to a "hurricane relief" event fast enough, and so workers were ordered to slow down their work until he got there... with the cameras in tow:

In Hudson, the packing was proceeding too quickly, and the supporters wearing red "Team Wisconsin" t-shirts were given the order to slow down and then to stop to be sure there were still goods to be packed when Ryan entered.

One by one the boxes were filled and loaded into a waiting U-Haul, and then they stopped to wait for the candidate.

This campaign has been cynical and awful and that cynicism and awfulness has spread like a fungus from one side -- the craven, opportunistic Romney/Ryan side.  

Look, at this late date, none of what anyone says about this will likely change any minds.  I'm just surprised the Romney/Ryan folks have been this sloppy about the whole thing.  It is awful and depressing.

But not as awful and depressing as what has happened to so many folks in New Jersey, New York and the other states where Sandy had a deep impact.  

Here's how you can help the victims of Hurricane Sandy.

Hooray for Purple Grapes

by Benjamin J. Kirby

I should have told you: Emeline is going to be purple grapes this year for Halloween.  

Last year, we asked her pretty early what she wanted to be, and she said, "Sheep."  And she stuck with it... never wavered, actually.  She was very adamant about being a sheep, and so a sheep she was (see picture above).  

This year we again asked her fairly early what she wanted to be: "Purple grapes."  She stuck with purple grapes until about two days ago when she told Duncan she wanted to be a pink strawberry.

Duncan did a masterful job of steering her back to purple grapes.

Finnegan is only six months old (on the 2nd), and so he's just got a little onesie that says "My first Halloween!"  It's pretty cute, too.  I think he'll be excited to hang out with his family and see all the crazy monsters and goblins and ghouls come looking for candy.

Have a safe and fun Halloween, everybody.  

Anything Left to Take Seriously?

by Benjamin J. Kirby

I started blogging in January of 2005.  The posting was sporadic and the writing was not often great -- not often even very good.  

One of the reasons I didn't just flat-out give up on blogging was the response of the Bush Administration to Hurricane Katrina, which ravaged New Orleans and the Gulf Coast that year.  That moment in American history remains one of the best examples of governmental failure.  

And the public face of that failure -- aside from George W. Bush himself -- was that of Michael "Brownie" Brown, the man wholly unsuited and unqualified to run the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).  As the people of New Orleans suffered, he increasingly became the face of incompetence -- and of slow response.

So, would you care to guess who offered up this irony-slathered morsel on his radio program today?

"One thing he's gonna be asked is, why did he jump on this so quickly and go back to D.C. so quickly when in...Benghazi, he went to Las Vegas?" Why was this so quick?... At some point, somebody's going to ask that question.... This is like the inverse of Benghazi."

Why was this so quick?

Why.  Was this.  So quick.

Yeah, someone needs to tell Michael Brown to stop talking.  Stop it.  Seriously.  

Florida: Staying All-In

by Benjamin J. Kirby

I haven't yet offered a full prediction on how I think things are going to go on Election Day.

Last time I did that -- in 2008 -- I got my ass kicked by the Jason Rothstein, a worthy adversary if ever there was one.

I made a lot of goofy predictions in '08 -- a mistake I'm pretty sure I'll make again.  But first, can I just ask you a general question on polling: what kind of reputable organization would pull out of Florida, North Carolina, and Virignia, claiming that "Obama can't win there"?  

Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos, whose polls are aggregated into mainstream averages to show where the presidential race stands in the swing states, said he’s finished polling in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia because President Obama has no shot of winning those states.

“I think in places like North Carolina, Virginia and Florida, we’ve already painted those red, we’re not polling any of those states again,” Paleologos said Tuesday night on Fox’s "The O’Reilly Factor." “We’re focusing on the remaining states.”

Wait... "The O'Reilly Factor"?  

Seriously?  That guy is still around?  

You know what?  Nevermind on the question...  I already know.

Not to lend this creep Paleologos any more creedence than he deserves, but you can kind of understand North Carolina, where Romney is breaking away pretty effectively.

But Virginia?  It's a statistical tie, with Obama trending up.

Florida?  I'm no statistician, but I see a small gap closing there, fast -- including an Obama lead in some new polls.

I don't know what Paleologos and his crew are tyring to drive by pulling out of states where it is literally neck and neck (yes, I do).  

That alone is reason enough for Team Obama to want to win Florida.

Momentum, Organization and the Impact of Sandy

by Benjamin J. Kirby

Hurricane Sandy is here, and it's pretty damn scary.

I'm more worried about all my old friends and neighbors in the Washington, D.C. area, as well as those in New York City, than I am about politics.  I hope everyone there stays safe and relatively dry.  

That being said, we have an election coming up in just over a week, and that's a pretty big deal, too. 

Aaron Blake at The Fix already has a quick run-down of political hot-spots which may (or may not) be affected by the "frankenstorm" -- basically: Philly, Boston (where Romney Headquarters are located), Virginia, North Carolina (along the coast particularly), and Ohio.  

On top of the weather-related issues to contend with -- will voters be able to get to the polls for early voting?  Will polling places and campaign field offices be able to operate without power? -- the financial markets will be closed again tomorrow.  I am not an economist so I don't know what the impact of having markets closed for a day or two really means.  

The best thing I've read on the election in a long time comes from Ryan Lizza at The New Yorker, entitled The Final Push (subscribers only link, sorry).  The bottom line is that campaigns are better than they've ever been at mobilizing voters -- that is to say, using scientific data, using what we know works to get voters to the polls:

The very best way to mobilize voters, they discovered, is through shame.  During the 2006 Michigan primary, they [scientists conducting a study on voter turnout] sent four pieces of campaign mail to more than three hundred thousand people urging them to vote.  One mailer was a simple appeal to the voter's civic duty.  The other three included such an appeal, coupled with either information about whether the recipients or their neighbors had voted in recent elections or a subtle warning that researchers would check to see if they voted in the next election.  The mailers with the shame-inducing information increased turnout by as much as eight points, an enormous jump.  

Shame, of course, coupled with on-the-ground, well put-together teams in places where person-to-person contact can make a difference.  Lizza visited Nevada, where...

Obama has twenty-six field offices in the state; Romney has twelve.

Indeed, Obama has something like a gajillion more field offices that Mitt Romney, except in Utah.  For some reason.

But it's awfully hard for a person to make voter contact when you're snowed in or flooded out.  

As a quick aside, I hope someone smart at the Obama campaign has figured out that they have the most field offices in Ohio, and many, many more in Pennsylvania, Virginia and North Carolina, and that if those could be utilized as places where folks could get help -- or at least serve as a starting point for that kind of thing -- than all the better.  For everyone.

Finally, I guess I'd have to generally agree with Howard Kurtz that this is mostly bad for Mitt Romney.  President Obama has already stopped campaigning -- taken off the "candidate" hat and put back on the Leader of the Free World hat (it's a proverbial hat, just FYI).  As Sandy blows through and causes damage, he'll be the guy in charge.  

Again, you hate to politicize it, but unless he screws it up like some presidents I could name, that looks Presidential.

Romney has little choice but to stop campaigning and hope that the power gets turned back on, fast.

I said last week there were a handful of states where I thought the momentum was going in favor of President Obama.  But there were a few states where that was not the case, notably Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Michigan.  

It may be more than just a tough storm impacting Mitt-mentum, though.  Team Romney has a new ad out that not only makes no sense, the lie in it about President Obama is particularly egregious.  It's hard to tell what the chattering freaks will be talking about more -- that, or Newt Gingrich (of all people) suggesting that with respect to recent comments by Republicans candidates for public office about rape, that we (actually, Obama Campaign staffer Stephanie Cutter) should just "get over it."

Well, let's let the political goofballs figure that all out.  

In the meantime, have some good thoughts for all our friends in the path of Sandy.  They're going to need it.

Finally Friday Few More Days Edition

by Benjamin J. Kirby

Hope you take a few minutes to go read the Buzzfeed profile of White House big-shot and Obama friend Valerie Jarrett.  She has had quite a life and quite a career.  

I know a lot of people look at profiles like that and think Just another Washington insider, big deal.

Well, couple of things.  One, Mrs. Jarrett is a little different.  She was a big deal in Chicago before she was a big deal in Washington.

Two, I think knowing who is behind some of the levers of power in this country is important.  She is clearly an influential advisor to the President and to Mrs. Obama, and I'm glad to know a little more about her.  

You know, I think when they write the history books, there will of course be a lot of attention paid to President Obama's background and race.  Obviously.  But what I think has been woefully under-reported is the kind of President that President Obama has been -- and by "kind" I mean with respect to his relationship to the Beltway Insiders.  

It hasn't been good, and it hasn't been a positive experience... and for me, that's a net plus.  It should be for most Americans, too.  

The Clintons got this treatment, too -- the excommunication from Sally Quinn, the self-appointed Queen Bee of all things Washington Social -- by the way.  Politically speaking, I'm not sure it's a net negative.

Obama has managed to serve pretty effectively as an "outsider" President, and use that image effectively.  I'm guess Mrs. Jarrett has had a lot to do with it.

# # # #

Speaking of must-read pieces, Mustang Bobby has one over at his place on why a vote for Romney is an outright vote for bigotry and hate, and why he does indeed take it personally.

I recently had a conversation with a co-worker about the election.  She’s a Republican and she is supporting Mr. Romney.  She also knows that I am gay, and we’ve joked about it; she has some friends she wants me to meet and do a little match-making.  In the course of the conversation — which was friendly at all times — I said, “You know that you’re voting for a man who would like to enshrine gay-bashing into the United States Constitution.”

She said, “Well, I disagree with him on that.”

“And yet you’re going to vote for him anyway.”

She said there are more important things at stake, like the economy and stuff.

Yeah, it doesn't work that way.  

As a quick aside, I find this to be one of the most confounding things about today's tea party-driven Republican Party.  They've got one foot in the freak-show fantasyland of a fictitious, Ayn Randian libertarian utopian where Grover Norquist has finally drowned government in the bath tub and no one will ever bother you again!  ...and one foot firmly planted in the horrifying faux-pious evangelical creepshow that seems well determined to plant a permanent flag not just between two loving, consenting gay adults, but in a woman's uterus as well.

Well, don't take my word for it -- or Bobby's.  You know, Romney is the GOP standard bearer.  And he's been outspoken on the issue of civil -- and human -- rights and gay people:

"Some gays are actually having children born to them. It's not right on paper. It's not right in fact. Every child has a right to a mother and father.''

Sorry.  You don't get to choose "the economy" over that.  It's the economy* and that.  

*It's not, BTW. 

# # # #

I'm thinking about one more It's a Numbers Game entry -- one day next week.  But in the meantime, does it look to anyone else like the momentum is headed in the right direction for Obama in Florida?  I recognize the President is down a little bit here in the Sunshine State, but I'm looking at the trend line and thinking about ten days to Election Day.    

I don't think I've seen a poll out of Ohio that has consistently shown Romney ahead -- or one that even shows him ahead by any significant measure at all.

The trend lines are more interesting in Pennsylvania, where Obama has seemingly had it locked up for a long time.  

Even more interesting than that: my old adopted home state of Virginia, where it looks like Obama has been fairly steady, and Romney took a kind of weird spike that may be headed south.  He's dropped a point and a half in ten days.  Where will he be ten days from now?

In Iowa, there seems to be an early -- too early for anyone but dopes like me to say anything -- breaking away by the President, who has consistently lead there since around August.

The trend-line break-away in Colorado looks a bit more profound.  This also favors President Obama.

In Nevada, there's been a hard up-swing for President Obama -- but there's been an up-swing for Romney, too.  Should be noted that Obama has lead there consistently as well.

If you're looking for some Romney good-news, Michigan is a place where Team Obama might suddenly be concerned.  

Other good Romney news may be found in the four Electoral Votes of New Hampshire where Obama's trend lines are headed south and Romney is on the rise.  It's a perfect tie there right now.

Okay, so what do New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida all have in common?

They're the states I'll be watching on Election Night for an early indication of who's going to win this thing.  Of course, if Obama wins those eastern states first, it'll be an early night for everyone.

Right now it looks like the advantage belongs to President Obama with 261 Electoral Votes likely going his way.  And if you put Ohio and Pennsylvania -- leaning his way right now -- in his category on Election Night, you'd only need nine more votes to get to the winning 270.  That's Colorado (exactly, actually), Michigan (16), Virginia, (13), and of course Florida's hefty 29.     

How will it shake out?  We'll see.  Watch your swing states, and keep an eye on those trend lines.

And don't forget to vote. 

# # # #

It's a little scary at first, but this is an incredible ad for something called WarChild, an outfit out of Canada that works "with war-affected communities to help children reclaim their childhood through access to education, opportunity and justice."

# # # #

What's the matter with these guys? Haven't they seen Terminator?!?!

# # # #

It's finally Friday.

Almost Friday Better Way Edition

by Benjamin J. Kirby

I know I've been whining a lot lately about blogging and the election.

Sorry about that.

Anyway, this was a kind of interesting piece from King of the Liberal Bloggers, Kos of DailyKos fame.

It's a different world today, with everyone playing their role -- online and off. And given our continued traffic growth, it's clear people crave a place like Daily Kos, gathering to fight for a common cause.

The downside to the growth of Daily Kos and the professionalization of our medium is that the small-time blogger is on the verge of extinction. That chaotic cacophony of amateur online voices was beautiful while it lasted, though.

Different world, indeed.

# # # #

Colin Powell endorsed Obama again.  I think that's generally a good thing.

I have mixed emotions on Powell.  A large part of me can't forgive him his lies to the U.N. in the run-up to the Iraq War.  Men and women died because of his line of bullshit.

That said, his endorsement of Obama on Meet the Press in '08 is still one of the most remarkable political statments I've ever heard.

# # # #

I know I've had a lot to say about how crappy drones and the drone strike program really is -- but I heard this on NPR yesterday and was just fascinated: they're experimenting with an aircraft that can go 3,600 miles per hour.

I hate the reasoning for why they're doing it --  "the Pentagon has been testing hypersonic technologies in hopes of being able to deliver strikes around the globe within minutes." -- but the idea that we're even talking about traveling Mach 6 -- six times the speed of sound -- is breathtaking.  

My first question was: how in the hell would you fly something that fast? 

# # # #

And just think, not that long ago, we were learning how to record sounds and voices on what amounts to tinfoil.  Here is one of the first known recordings, ever... and there's a blooper.

Somebody call Tom Bergeron (and, um, see if he'll take a recording with, you know, no video.  Or whatever...). 

# # # # 

It's almost Friday.

Into the Echo Chamber: Wrapping Up

Monday, October 22, 2012

Matt -- 

It's Monday, and as I sit home trying to fight off a cold, it occurs to me that this will be one of the last Into the Echo Chambers we do before Election Day.  We'll be less than two weeks out by the time we publish this exchange.  Whatever news comes out of tonight's debate will be fading, and we'll be on to something new in the news cycle.  

Which, in a funny sort of way, gets me to where I want to start.  I've been thinking about our last exchange since we posted it, and more specifically, your problem with this election, which had as much to do with broken government as with who to vote for.  

Our society -- our culture -- has actually out-paced our government.  This, I think, is only part of what's at the heart of your frustration. 

You talk a lot about your time with the youth from your church and your trip to Jamaica to serve the people there and build something that mattered, something that would have an immediate and lasting impact on their lives.  This was something you and a handful of kids did -- yes, with the support of your church -- but largely you did it all yourselves.

To over-simplify the conundrum, if you can do it on somewhat limited resources, why can't our government of virtually limitless resources? 

Well, I'm done making my plea for slow, deliberate government.  I think government works more than it doesn't, but I do understand folks from my generation and more so yours (and the folks who are even younger) exist in a country, an economy and a social environment that is fast and largely self-reliant.  It's what new media is all about.  

Hell, it's what this project has been about.  After all, we didn't divide the nation's newspapers in half by region and review their daily coverage of the campaigns.  We set up Twitter accounts.

And so your question of frustration becomes compounded.  It becomes easy to see that you're not the only one with that same frustration. 

This is one where I'm not so sure government is entirely at fault.  

I'd like to avoid the now-cliched money-is-corrupting-politics line.  It's true, of course.  The un-moored flow of cash into campaigns has ruined politics for a lot of people.  It has gone a long way towards ruining how our government works, too, notably in the Legislative Branch, where Members spend more time raising cash than they do working together on solutions to big national and global problems.

But we know all of that.  

Whenever I mention a newspaper or TV show screwing something up on this blog, I use the phrase, "our broken media apparatus," because that's what it is.  I think when they write the history books, they'll note the complicity -- the paralysis -- of the "mainstream media" most especially as it relates to politics with the horror and disgust it is due.  

We can talk about why this happened if you want -- the rise of new media, actually, in some part -- but to be honest, I no longer care.  The people running newspapers and national TV cable shows across the country have let us all down.  

It wasn't really President Obama that got the applause the other night when Mitt Romney dropped the ball -- big time -- on the Libya question.  It was CNN's Candy Crowley, for doing some on-the-spot -- and, it must be said, all too easy -- fact-checking.  She was, in other words, doing what a reporter (and yes, debate moderator) should do.  

We got caught up in this idea that there are only two credible sides -- Blue and Red, if you will -- and everyone else is, quite literally, worthless (though to be fair, I laughed out loud when I saw Roseanne Barr on the ballot).  And when you have only two sides, like the Yin and the Yang, they must be equal, balanced.  

Even when they're not.

The result is the country we have now, with half of it buying everything sold by Fox News and the Murdock Empire, and the other half downing the MSNBC Kool-Aid seven days a week.  

We're at a point where even as Mitt Romney lies in ways easily and immediately provable, the Red side won't ever believe they are lies... because they don't have to.  Fox would never report it that way.  

I'm not so sure this election hasn't been a critical moment for large-scale, traditional media outlets -- yes, "our broken media apparatus".  Like their complicity in the blind run-up to the Iraq War, this election has largely brought shame to the House of Journalism.  Sure, if Romney tells a lie, he gets a "pants on fire" or a "Pinnochio" or some other too-cute by half measurement... 

It's all a little disheartening -- and it does nothing to help you feel better about the process.

So there you go, Matt.  

Thoughts?

BJK

# # # #

Ben -

You have most definitely hit the nail on the head with this one.  A broken media apparatus has certainly let us all down.  And a working media apparatus is CRITICAL to the success of a democracy.  You don't have to take my word for it - ask our Founding Fathers.  It's in the First freaking Amendment.  Religion, speech, press, assembly, redress.  There you go - ahead of guns and due process.  Freedom of the press.  

We are guaranteed by our founding document to have an independent overseer.  Why?  The preamble tells us it is "to prevent abuse of power and to extend public confidence in the government."  It doesn't take a journalism scholar to call what we have today 0 for 2 on those measures.

Here in Pinellas, we have the benefit of one of the best newspapers in the country - certainly top 10, if not top 5.  Personally, I have a love-hate relationship with the St. Petersburg Times.  She was my first big-boy employer, offering me a summer internship after my freshman year of college.  There are many happy memories of fighting over the sports section with my father, of celebrating when I was mentioned in it, laughing about the way piles of it infested my house growing up and drove my mom nuts, and finally, appreciating the epilogue of my father's life written by it.   

Yet that article may help shine a light on exactly what we are talking about.  The first paragraph is fiction.  The author talked to my mom and sister and some JWB colleagues when he was researching it, gathering material.  Lord knows there were plenty of wonderful things to say about my dad, yet he made some shit up because ... who knows.  "A lilting, professorial cadence" "paused to ponder the wordplay"????  Really?  The guy never talked to my dad and I can guarantee that nobody said that about him.  But it tells a nice story that is mostly true.  And I guess that is where we are with old media.  Take a fact or event, build a narrative that matters to you, the reporter, and run with it.

Oh well.  That is why we run to twitter.  Why we cross-reference and multi-source.  Why we don't trust a newspaper to tell the whole, unbiased story.  And newspapers are hardly the worst offender.  As you pointed out Faux News and MSNBC are more like rival candidates than professional peers.  For Fox News, if you have to tell people you're fair and balanced... guess what, you aren't.  And MSNBC might as well add "Obama-Biden, 2012" to their eerily similar slogan of "Lean Forward".  

And so we have our Echo Chamber.  I hear what I want.  You hear what you want and we never have to hear the same thing.  Ridiculous.  It goes back to my point last week about losing faith in big institutions.  I can't believe I left the media off that list.  Maybe because it is too obvious.  Too apparent to anyone with a radio, a television or internet access.  

So what do we do about it?  One of my very good friends is the #2 at a good sized regional paper within a larger media company.  He and I used to have great conversations on that very topic.  For obvious reasons, it was much more pressing for him than me.  But it goes to show that many, even within the business, know the issues aren't just Craigslist and the internet stealing ad revenue and phones and tablets stealing readers.  There are fundamental problems that need big solutions.  

Sound familiar?  

I'm curious to hear what our party standard bearers have to say tonight - and who is the most creative in pivoting away from the theoretical topic of the debate - foreign policy.  I'll watch and follow on twitter.  I'll read articles and blogs.  I'll talk it over with you tomorrow if everyone's feeling better.  But I sure as heck won't be taking any single media outlet's word for any of it.

Back to you my friend,

Matt  

  

# # # #

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Matt -- 

I'm glad you brought up your dad.  If you'll forgive me saying so, I miss him.

But I am glad you brought him up, because I've been thinking about him as we've been having this discussion on the working and functionality of government in particular.  And it is appropriate that we have segued into media as well.

One of the great things I always admired about your father was his incredible memory for people and programs that had come before -- some going back decades.  And so in a way, nothing was really that new to him.  I'm not sure it's much of an exaggeration to say he'd kind of seen it all, at least with respect to the universe of the Juvenile Welfare Board.  So when a staff project came around he typically served as one of a couple of things: either a well of history and context which enriched whatever you were working on, or the guy who would send you back to the drawing board again and again (and again) because he'd seen it done that way once.  And it was wrong.  

Those two things were not mutually exclusive, and I experienced both.  

Again, you'd certainly know better than I, but I always got the impression your dad had little patience for a lot of the bullshit that goes with national politics.  I loved that he was always up for a good political conversation with me, but wonder if he'd be as disheartened as you and I have been this year. 

Which leads me to ask: really, Mitt?  "I love teachers"?  At a debate on foreign policy?  

In a normal election year, Romney would have been virtually disqualified from the race once Obama delivered the bayonets and horses line.  I said earlier I thought the line of the night -- and perhaps the best line of the whole debate series -- came when Obama reminded Romney that trips to foreign countries are about content, not fundraising.  Again, a line fatal to a campaign in any other year but this.  

Of course, the low point for me was Romney and Obama having a virtual love-fest over the Predator drone program.  Really, really disheartening.

But like I said, we're not in a normal year.  

"Red" folks can hear whatever they want to hear.  "Blue" socialist hippies like me can hear whatever we want to hear, and never the twain shall meet.  

Which is not at all how it's supposed to work.  

I guess that's a roundabout way of saying I wish we had more guys like your dad in our federal government.  It would surely work a lot better than it does now.

Here's hoping that by the time our kids are old enough to talk about us like this, things will be working a lot better than they are.

One last note, Matt: we're just a few days out from Election Day.  I suspect you and I have remarkably similar Electoral College maps, probably putting Obama somwhere just over the 270-to-win mark.  Maybe we differ on Colorado or New Hampshire, but not by much.  

Instead, do you have any local or state-wide races you're watching in other states?  I've been fascinated by the Scott Brown/Elizabeth Warren race in Massachusetts, which I think will go to Warren.  

What do you think?

Best,

BJK 

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Wednesday, October 24, 2012

 Ben -

Thank you for the kind words and the sentiment.  Yes, my dad would have had very little tolerance for today's campaigns.  He was a man who relished good conversation - politics, baseball, college football, a good book, anything really - and there is not a conversation going on in the 2012 election cycle.  There are shrill attacks, distortions, dog whistles, and platitudes.  The debates, all three, were not really a conversation, they were two bitchy teenage girls sniping at each other in the lunchroom.  He would have detested it.  

But what would have really turned his stomach, and what turns mine, is the dishonesty.  The total lack of integrity from either campaign.  Sure, it has always been there in politics.  But not necessarily this craven.  Not necessarily this personal.  Not necessarily this prevalent.  As I said earlier, the army of fact-checkers just reinforce the notion that nobody is telling the truth, that all statements made by politicians must be arbitrated and can never be accepted at face value.  Maybe that's life, but it is a part of life that my father was never willing to accept.  And I hope I have learned that from him.  There were many, many positive traits to associate with my father, with integrity being at the very top.  I don't see it anywhere in this election cycle.   

I am certainly disgusted.  Not just weary and ready for it to be over.  Disgusted.  With Romney yes, but with Biden and even with Obama.  By the way, is Paul Ryan in witness protection?  Have we heard a word about him since his weird encounter with Smilin' Joe? Funny that a guy who was going to "turn the election in Florida" (either way depending on who you listen to) is as irrelevant as every other vice presidential candidate ever.  

As for predictions, I'd be very surprised if Warren and Bill Nelson didn't win.  I'd be surprised if Linda McMahon did win.  I'd be only mildly surprised if Akin won, sadly.  As for the top of the ticket, I think you've nailed it.  Funny enough, I agree with this analysis by your least favorite MSNBC personality, Joe Scarborough.  It's gonna be either narrow Obama victory or a Romney walk.  Who would have predicted Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada and Florida all going to Obama in '08?  There's a sliver of a chance they all, plus Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio tip the other way this time around. 

Seriously, find me something before October of 2008 saying that McCain would lose Indiana and Virginia.  I can't remember anything.  But something bigger than polling and normal election garbage was going on in '08.  It was a new enthusiasm that the pundits could observe, but not really calculate and understand.  They were surprised when the landslide came.  I remember how giddy MSNBC was when Indiana came in for Obama.  It was like the contestant who wins both Showcase Showdowns on The Price is Right.  And if something surprising like that were to happen this year, I don't think it would be on the Blue side.  

It sure seems like the confident campaign is the one in Boston, not Chicago.  I think that the Romney people see a pretty simple equation: 1) Romney passed the "looking presidential" hurdle 2) Americans are still generally dissatisfied with the economy and the last four years 3) The people can't blame our guy 4) They'll blame Obama, not for falling short of Romney '12, but for falling short of Obama '08.     

And they will act accordingly, so get ready for a deluge of Obama's '08 promises and soundbites approved by Mitt.  Get ready for the dead horse numbers: 8% (unemployment), $5,000 (drop in median family income), 23 million (un- and underemployed), $16 trillion (national debt), and the Red version of 47 (million Americans on food stamps).  Every TV viewer in all of the above states will be hearing those numbers in their sleep.  

Don't get me wrong, I think Obama holds... but narrowly.

Interestingly enough, that brings us back to the press.  Earlier this week, the Orlando Sentinel endorsed Mitt Romney.  So did the Tampa Tribune.  I wouldn't be surprised if more were on the way.  Say what you will, but in the swing I-4 corridor, that ain't good.  Yes, the biggest and the best endorsed Obama, but that was never in question.  

Do endorsements matter?  We shall see.

Best to the family,
Matt

# # # #

Thursday, October 25, 2012 

I am going to butcher this so it's probably best I don't remember where it came from, but someone once said that campaigns were the simple distillation of complicated problems.  That's realy true, and so we are left with a couple of things.

The first is a frustrated populace.  America's not stupid.  We just play stupid people on TV.  The truth is, we know there are complicated issues here at home and around the world.  They are layered with nuance and delicate complexities we can barely begin to understand, if we understand them at all.  

We want someone smart and insightful and thoughtful to take on these problems.  Hell, it's what we hired Obama to do four years ago.  It's why I think we'll re-hire in in less than two weeks.  

You and I disagree about how craven and untruthful the Obama campaign has been.  We'll get past it.  Frankly, I'm not sure who lied and who didn't is even the point, because after all, the real point is who can best simply distill the complexity.  

I think Obama does it more earnestly.  I think he's more sincere.  Much more so, actually.

I think the one single thing Mitt Romney has in common with the tea party, far-right base he worked so hard in the primaries to cater to is a cynical view and personal disdain for the government he wants to lead.  

Their First Commandment is the old Reagan line, "government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem."  Of course, that's the same tax-raising Reagan who could never survive in today's GOP.

I've said in other places on this blog that I don't think this election should ever have been this close.  

You are right on the Obama promises, but for every promise, there are significant indicators of the improving economy -- and an improving quality of life.  Where I get frustrated is that this is usually answered -- in the form of our broken media apparatus -- focusing for a day on the useless antics of Donald Trump. 

Which once again gets us back to broken media.  

I think endorsements matter, but they matter less than they ever have... because of the echo chamber.  If the Sentinel endorses Romney (which they did), then it's just more fodder for the GOP chamber.  When the Tampa Bay Times endorses Obama (which they did), then it's just more for the "blue" side, right?  

I'll tell you this, though: when the Times endorsed Obama, I didn't see any mention of it over at @SpencerianBlue.  An oversight?  Maybe I missed it?  Possibly.  But I think that tells you something.   

This has been a tough slog of an election, and frankly I'm sort of proud of us for keeping up with this as faithfully as we did.  Next week is the last full week, so we might try something a little different.

Here's to this thing finally winding down.

Best to Erin and the kids.

BJK

# # # #

Welcome to Into the Echo Chamber, the weekly electronic conversation of the 2012 presidential campaign as viewed from two Twitter feeds.  Matt Spence is monitoring the Twitterverse of the Romney Campaign, Republicans, and the "red" side of the aisle at @SpencerianRed.  I am monitoring the tweets of the Obama Team, Democrats using @SpencerianBlue.  Our email-based back-and-forths are posted here on Thursdays.  

You are, as always, invited to join the discussion, either in the comments below or by emailing Spencerian Red or Spencerian Blue. 

Is This a Joke?

by Benjamin J. Kirby

No, really: Donald Trump?  We spent a day paying attention to this?  A whole day?  That's a day of your life you're never getting back, America. 

Look, when you can no longer tell the difference between farce and the real thing, maybe it's time to give it up on the whole deal.

My sense is right now is, I'll be hanging out over here ready to have a conversation about politics and policy and campaigns when anybody else is ready.  This other crap doesn't deserve the goddam time of day.

Seriously, people, I'm getting fed up.

Oh, by the way, didn't Obama shut this guy down a few months ago?

The only thing overshadowing the Trump joke of the day was the infinitely more offensive comments by tea party Senate candidate Richard Mourdock saying, "And even when life begins in that horrible situation of rape, that it is something that God intended to happen.”

The only thing more horrifying than a guy running for Senate saying that is GOP Presidential nominee Mitt Romney sticking with him.

Honestly, this isn't politics anymore: it's something else, and I don't like it. 

I only wish that was the first time the idea of "legitimate rape" were introduced in this election. 

If you're a Republican, the political events of this past year should cause you a great deal of humiliation, embarrassment, and general bad feelings.  Matt Taibbi was right: this presidential race should never have been so close.  And it is a sign of blind loyalty to party and the idea of the power of winning that has turned this thing into a circus beyond mockery.

What a shame.

# # # # 

As a sort of brief but related aside, I think you should know I'm considering putting The Spencerian on the electronic shelf, if you will, for a little while.  For a host of reasons, but the overarching reason is that this kind of stuff -- the legitimized comments of a megalomaniacal billionaire lunatic, rape as a campaign platform, etc. -- is all just too much.  It's not fun anymore, or it hasn't been lately.

I'm not giving up on writing.  There is a lot I want to do -- not all of it political.  And I'm a big believer in signs, so maybe this election has been a sign of sorts.  

If you follow the blog and like what you read, don't worry, and don't panic.  We'll see how the election goes, see what I have to say after the fact.  If we're lucky, things will simmer down a bit and we'll find some rhetorical equilibrium.

Off the Radar Two Weeks Edition

by Benjamin J. Kirby

I won't re-hash too much of the debate for you.  Spend about ten quality seconds with Google, and you can get the analysis which best fits with your particular worldview.  

Of course, Obama cleaned Romney's clock, which is why the idiots at Fox News went ahead and made a bunch of crap up.  Yeah, "bayonets and horses" was pretty good.  And I'm sure they really did get a tweet from a Marine.  None of that, of course, was really the point.  But that won't deter Fox News -- the same organization that gave us "declaring something an act of terror doesn’t mean you’re declaring it a terrorist attack." 

Anyway, I thought the real line of the night went to Obama:

...when I went to Israel as a candidate, I didn’t take donors, I didn’t attend fundraisers, I went to Yad Vashem, the — the Holocaust museum there, to remind myself the — the nature of evil and why our bond with Israel will be unbreakable.

This was Obama in response to the silly complaint from Romney and the GOP that he had not traveled to Israel as President.  Neither did paragon of conservative virtue Ronald Reagan.

It left Romney looking exactly like what he is: a bully who just got a heaping helping of what he likes to dish out... and it didn't go so well.

As somebody else said, though, it's hard to imagine there are any real undecided voters out there now.  And if there are, they're likely not that interested in foreign policy, I'm sorry to say.

Besides, it was football night, not to mention a big baseball game between the Giants and the Cardinals (sorry, Cards). 

# # # #

Speaking of Romney falling apart -- and maybe no one caring -- I genuinely hope this is somehow all a big mistake, or in some way just not true: Gold Star Mother: Romney Skipped Funeral, Left "Bullying" Messages

But Mitt Romney did not attend every soldier’s funeral; there were at least two cases where he did not.

And in one of those cases, a Gold Star mother claims that, far from comforting, Romney left insensitive phone messages – messages that she calls “bullying” and her husband describes as “abusive.”

“I can’t believe you haven’t returned my call,” Romney said on one of the voice mail messages, according to Stephany Kern, speaking at her Westerly, Rhode Island home this past Saturday. “Here I am making a second call; I haven’t heard from you.”

Kern did not save the messages. This is the first time she has spoken publicly about them.

Kern’s son, Marine Lance Corporal Nickolas Schiavoni, was killed by an IED explosion in Iraq on November 15, 2005. He was born and lived his entire life in the Haverhill, Massachusetts, area, and his funeral took place in Haverhill on November 26. His grandfather, David Swartz -- Kern's father -- was a well-known attorney, prosecutor, and city councilor in that city.

I guess I'll have to once again link to my post from June when I declared this the "bully election" -- but god, I wish I didn't have to.  

This is why people are so sick of this election.  This is why even those of us who usually enjoy the political process are turned off.  Because nothing -- nothing -- is now off-limits.  Is this a true story?  Who knows.  Lord, who cares.  All I know is that it does nothing to honor the memory and the service of Marine Lance Corporal Nickolas Schiavoni, it does nothing to help his grieving family.  

Just awful stuff.  Thank god it'll be over in a couple of weeks.

# # # # 

Hurricane season isn't technically over until next week -- so keep your eye on this, fellow Floridians.

# # # #

I'll say this: politics nationally may be disheartening, but here in Pinellas, it is always interesting.

# # # #

I'll make this plea again, but if you have the opportunity to early vote, then go do it.  Please vote.  

 -- More later -- 

Final Debate Night: The World Stage

by Benjamin J. Kirby

I'll be watching tonight, even as I fight off a cold.  I know.  Poor me.  

I'll certainly try to do my usual thing on Twitter and Facebook.  I already saw a too-true Tweet from conservative activist and prolific Tweeter Sarah Rumpf:

‏@rumpfshaker  Prediction: tonight will see the highest-ever use of "picture-in-picture" function on American TVs.   #debates #NFL #MLB

So true.  It's a shame, because tonight focuses on international affairs.  Should be a strong suit for President Obama.  Kept promises in Iraq and Afghanistan.  OBL's head.  Rebuilding American stature globally.  

But after the first debate -- which still stings -- and given that the RomneyBot will apparently say anything at any time regardless of whether it is actually true, I'm going into this thing with an abundance of caution.

I did notice from one of the gajillion emails I get now from whoever in politics that this is actually President Obama's last debate.  You have to wonder what that's like for him.  I mean, your whole life has basically built up to the Presidency, and here you are at a true milestone.  

Those kinds of milestones are big deals in our own every day, not-leading-the-free-world lives.  It must be strange when it happens to POTUS.  

I also wonder if this won't mean he's not sort of unmoored a little bit, kind of free to do and say stuff he might not normally do or say.  Look, we're a little more than two weeks out.  He's either going to win or lose.  Pretty good chance it won't rest on this debate.  Shouldn't he just go out there with everything he has?  

To use the sports analogy, why leave anything on the field?  Why would you?

So, go football, go baseball, and go to work, Mr. President.

And while you're waiting and I'm eating home-made chicken-noodle soup, here's this great and appropriate video for your viewing and listening pleasure.  Still one of my favorites.

Are We There Yet?

by Laura Jane Cohen

We got back last Sunday night from a mini vacation. My husband had a work conference and so the kids and I tagged along. On the 5 hour drive, several times the kids asked what remains my favorite road trip question:

"Are we there yet?"

"No, you'll know when we get there."

"How much longer until we get there?"

"I don't know. Not that much longer."

And with that, they invariably sighed or groaned and went back to the business of a road trip, eating junk food and watching a movie.

I've really struggled with what to write these past few weeks. I've started and scrapped six posts ranging from a confession of a suburban white high-schooler to a rant about PTA politics. The problem is that I don't know what to say. Among my friends, among my family, this election season has been a line in the sand. You find yourself constantly tiptoeing around land mines, trying to assess how much of your opinion you really want to express. While my good friend and next door neighbor, who is a Republican Mormon, and I have stopped short of filling each other's lawns with yard signs from the opposing candidate, we are very careful to change the topic when our election conversations begin to hit a little too close to home. On Facebook, on TV, and even in your own cul-de-sac, it seems you're either pro Obama, against Obama, or so turned off by the whole thing that you question if America will survive the divisiveness that has become the hallmark of this election.

If you know me, you know I'm a Democrat. A big "D" Democrat. Like Lady Gaga, I was born this way. Political memories are some of my first clear memories. I remember watching the election results as Ronald Reagan soundly trounced my fellow Georgian, Jimmy Carter. My parents were so disheartened that I wondered if Jimmy Carter was a family friend that I didn't remember. When I was younger, being a Democrat was more like rooting for the Brewers than the Yankees. I grew up in Marietta, Georgia, where Newt Gingrich was my Member of Congress. Our district was solidly Republican, years before the entire state went red.

My parents were social studies teachers who constantly stressed the rights and responsibilities of being a citizen. I am also a woman, a fact that my grandmother, who was 14 when women finally got the right to vote, would never let me forget. All the women who suffered, who were blacklisted from their own lives, I owed it to those women to never let a race for dogcatcher go by without casting my ballot.

The first time I voted for President, it was for Bill Clinton. He was a southerner, like me. He talked about raising people up. About the need for healthcare reform about looking ahead with an eye to the past. Are you better off than you were four years ago? The country overwhelming said "no". It was the first time that the person I had voted for actually won. I was hooked. Whether it was helping my mom run a neighbor's campaign for state house, working for the Lt. Governor, or canvassing with two kids under 2 in a double jog stroller, I've been involved in politics ever since.

But politics has changed. I guess it's a result of tough times. People are on guard. Always afraid that they will be the next one to get laid off. Afraid that their retirement savings will disappear. Afraid that they won't be able to send their kids to college or pay the mortgage. With the 24 hour news cycle and talking heads like Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, and Bill Maher, there is no room for real political discourse and very little room for facts. Political conversations aren't conversations at all. They are talking points angrily said to one another with Wolf Blitzer in the foreground. Instead of talking about issues and public policy, we spend time talking about the "true" nationality and religion of our current President. Instead of having a discussion about healthcare, we fight about Obamacare and Romneycare or whether or not Romney wears special Mormon underwear. We tolerate people talking about "taking out" the President (I don't care how good of a song "Cat Scratch Fever" is...you lost me, Ted).

This year feels different. I have been quiet. No canvassing. Not even so much as a bumper sticker on my car. Honestly, for the first time in my life, I've been afraid to rock the boat. Too many waves and people start to get nervous. What if you knock somebody out of the boat? Or worse, you fall out yourself? No, my Obama Mama t-shirt sits collecting dust because I have been too polite.

And then I went to early vote. I stood in line with people of every color, gender, shape, and size. The poll worker announced that the woman in front of me was a first-time voter and everyone cheered and clapped and I stood there with a lump in my throat. A guilty, teary lump. I have just shrugged my shoulders or gently shaken my head as people have said the most outrageous lies about a president I support. And now I'm done being quiet.

I support President Obama not just because he is the Democrat in the race. Not just because he is not Mitt Romney. I support him because while I am not a fan of abortion, I believe that government, especially one made up mostly of men, don't get to make policy about my body. I've been paying attention and I have never seen them get to make a decision about a man's. I, like Thomas Jefferson and John Locke before me, think that all people are endowed with certain inalienable rights and that among those is the right to pursue happiness, i.e. no government should make laws which arbitrarily infringe on that right. And if all of you get to keep your AK-47's as part of keeping a well armed militia, I just can't comprehend why on Earth that you think that the same documents you use to protect that right can be used to strip away someone else's right to marry another consenting adult, no matter what their gender. I support the President because I believe that no one should have to make a choice between taking their diabetes medication or being able to put food on the table. Between being able to keep their adult child with severe Autism in a loving group home or paying their own mortgage. I support the President because I don't believe that you should go to a good college and rack up loads of debt, come out and get a modest paying job and have banks charge you 29% interest on that loan. Predatory lending should not be what keeps you from ever being able to move out of your parents basement. I support the President because I was taught that we have a God given responsibility to help those who cannot help themselves. Matthew 25:40 tells us "The King will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did for one of the least of these brothers and sisters of mine, you did for me.'" I will not turn my back on these principles because some believe that people in need are "gaming" the system. Jesus didn't means test who he helped. He helped those who needed help. I ask you to try to provide for your family for a month on food stamps and then tell me that it's a free ride. If we do nothing else as a country, we should be mindful of the times we have fallen in our own lives. Of the times we needed help from our family, a friend, a neighbor. I don't imagine there is a one of us who hasn't had help on the way to picking ourselves back up off the ground. I think it is very fitting that a small chunk of my tax dollars go to helping folks who have had a rougher go in life than I have. And I sure don't mind the extremely wealthy giving a little bit bigger chunk of what they make. I like to think of it as the government being the middle man in the Lord's work. I'm good with that.

No, just like our road trip, we're not there yet. How much longer? I don't know. Hopefully not much. But there is traffic. They are roadblocks that have nothing to do with who the driver is or how well he's driving or how badly he wants to get there. Are we there yet? No. But we will get there. And for my family, with my precious kids along for the ride. This is the driver I am betting on to get us there.

I'm done being quiet because it's too important. Too much is at stake. Because, as the Indigo Girls reminded me last night, "Don't take a seat, don't stand aside, this time. Don't assume anything. Just go. Go. Go." Whether you agree with me or think I'm full of it, I do hope that you will go. Go vote. Too many people lost too much on the way to have that opportunity. And too many people have too much to lose if we stand aside this time.

Finally Friday Sleepy Edition

by Benjamin J. Kirby

Great stuff on Science Friday today from Nate Silver and Sam Wang on polling and handicapping political races.

For the record, per Silver's Five Thirty Eight blog, the polls seem to be headed back in the right direction and all is well in the world.  I'll probably offer a better prediction soon, but it's looking to me like the president gets re-elected with something around 300 Electoral Votes.  

It was interesting to hear Mr. Silver say he thought Nevada was more important than Florida this time around.  I hate to say it -- you know, living in Florida and all -- but he's probably right about that.  I'd like to see Obama win it again, of course, but right now it's looking like it'll go for Romney -- a 63% chance, actually.  

...but it won't be decisive, which is the point.

# # # #

And speaking of the vote in Florida, the Orlando Sentinel endorsed Romney today -- they endorsed Obama in '08 (and Hillary Clinton in the primary, FYI).  I wouldn't make too much of it, except that it may help seal up Florida for Romney at this point. 

Aside from that, it's kind of a bizarre endorsement.

I’m surprised, frankly, to see a Florida newspaper talking so favorably about “entitlement spending”.  Why don’t they just come out and say it: eff you, old people.  Also, it’s just not true that Democrats had “strong” majorities in the House and Senate in the first two years.  They had a majority in the Senate, and it was narrow, and it was backed by very conservative Democrats. 

And at any rate, those “strong” majorities got health reform passed.  That’s not insignificant.  I’m surprised there was no mention of that in the piece. 

Finally, “Romney has a steep learning curve” on international affairs?  Obama ended the Iraq war and is drawing down in Afghanistan.  He also gave the "go" order to have Osama bin Laden killed.  No mention of any of that in the piece, which quite frankly, is borderline-negligence not just because we're a state with a whole lot of veterans.  

Both health care and military issues should play more prominently in a major newspaper endorsement.  This is pretty terrible.

In better news, the Tampa Bay Times -- a better newspaper, for sure -- endorsed Obama today.  For all the right reasons.

# # # #

So the candidates joked around at the Al Smith Dinner -- kind of like the correspondent's dinner they do.   

They had some funny lines, all for a charitable cause (it's actually a fundraiser for Catholic charities).  For that reason, I'm glad they did it.  

Of course, I'd feel a lot better about it if this wasn't already so nasty a campaign.  In Gulfport, I've seen neighbor pitted against neighbor with dueling yard-signs.  I have seen people quit Facebook and social media because the vitriol is just too much.

I have my own opinions about what to do about all of this, and I'll write more about it later.  But for now, I must tell you that I think things like this do more harm to an already broken process rather than shore it up.  Which is too bad, because it should realy have the opposite effect.  

# # # #

Congratulations to Mustang Bobby's beloved Detroit Tigers who are going to the World Series.

At this point, though, I'm going to have to start rooting for the Cardinals, as they are my de-facto boyhood home-town team (St. Louis, yes, but we don't have much else in Arkansas, so you go with the closest thing...)

# # # #

It's finally Friday.

Almost Friday Flyover Edition

by Benjamin J. Kirby

During the debate the other night, Nina Gonzalez asked this question of President Obama:

President Obama, during the Democratic National Convention in 2008, you stated you wanted to keep AK-47s out of the hands of criminals. What has your administration done or planned to do to limit the availability of assault weapons?

Great question.  

I thought Obama's answer was actually pretty good, and at the heart of it was the idea that we ought to reintroduce the assault weapons ban.  

Governor Romney had the follow up:

Yeah, I’m not in favor of new pieces of legislation on — on guns and taking guns away or making certain guns illegal. We, of course, don’t want to have automatic weapons, and that’s already illegal in this country to have automatic weapons.

This is one I wish Governor Romney hadn't gotten wrong.  But he did:

Fully automatic weapons -- guns that fire continuously when the trigger is held down -- are legal to possess in the United States but are tightly regulated.

After that, things took a turn for the worse in his answer:

But let me mention another thing [to change the culture of violence]. And that is parents. We need moms and dads, helping to raise kids. Wherever possible the — the benefit of having two parents in the home, and that’s not always possible. A lot of great single moms, single dads. But gosh to tell our kids that before they have babies, they ought to think about getting married to someone, that’s a great idea.

Look, I actually get it: safe and stable families do, in fact, produce better outcomes for kids.  I think that Governor Romney stated that as ineloquently as I've ever heard it, but that was his larger point.  Happy, healthy, smart kids in stable homes have better outcomes -- ie, they're not gunning each other down with AK-47s.

Fine.  He got some well-earned guff for that -- even from me, on Facebook:

...because two parents who are married are literally impervious to AK-47 gunfire. #debate #superparents

Now, Romney might've actually recovered from delivering this point so weakly, had his idiot son Tagg not stepped right in it:

Mitt Romney's eldest son weighed in on the second presidential debate on Wednesday, joking that the debate's contentious nature made him want to "take a swing" at President Obama.

So the answer to preventing violence -- gun violence or otherwise, presumably -- lies with the parents.  Two parents, we're told in as condescending a way as you can imagine.  

If Tagg Romney wants to "take a swing" at the President, what does that say about his parents?  

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Nice of Tagg Romney to prove my point once and for all about this being the bully election, by the way.

Indeed, Mitt Romney is nothing more than a bully -- which explains why he got so flustered the other night.  Bullies don't like getting their asses kicked.  

His son is nothing more than a petulant bully, either.  

I'm real glad I could call it back in June, but what I didn't anticipate is how bitter this election cycle would make folks.  I should have known.  Because just dealing with a bully -- much less actually being bullied -- makes you kind of bitter and angry.  And when you're a Democrat -- particularly a liberal Democrat -- it's hard to accept that you sometimes have to stand up to bullies using the same tactics they use.  In other words, fighting back ain't always real palatable.  

I have seen more folks than I care to -- and a lot of them being folks I care about -- say they're just disgusted with the whole thing.  They can't stand to be on Twitter, they can't stand to be on Facebook.  The whole thing is a cynical, ugly mess. 

I agree... to a point.  The frustration point for me lies with our broken national media apparatus which just can't seem to call it like it is in the twisted name of "equality" and "balance".  Mitt Romney is an awful character and he's a liar and a serial flip-flopper of herculean proportions.  

And he is quite literally trying to use SuperPAC money to, well, bully his way to the White House.  Imagine what four years of that guy would be like.

Talk about trauma.

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The CIA wants to expand the drone strike program.

I'm going to go ahead and say: bad idea. 

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Newsweek was a staple for me gowing up -- more so TIME, I guess.  

And now it is gone...

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I'm a big proponent of social media, but I'm not at all surprised by this study which says Facebook ads are ineffective.

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It's almost Friday.