The Spencerian

Almost Friday Bold Predictions Edition

by Benjamin J. Kirby

I've been home for two days, now.  Emmy has been sick -- fever, stuffy nose.  I think she's probably on the road to feeling better, but let me tell you: it's hard with Finn -- who is not sick, knock on wood -- and with her when she is sick.  You don't like seeing your kids sick, sure.  But it's just hard, because she doesn't want to do much, which is not like her, but she still needs attention.

Finn is at an age -- ten months, day after tomorrow -- where he needs a lot of attention himself.  

So don't get me wrong: there are a lot of folks out there who have it a lot harder than I do.  Single moms, single dads.  Grandmothers and grandfathers who've already gone to that rodeo once before and are at it again for whatever reasons.  I'm under no illusions that I have it tough, being with my kids for two days at home.

But what it means is I'm going to have stuff piled up at the office when I go in.  It means a lot of catch-up.  

And I won't care one little bit if Emmy is feeling better.

# # # #

So a sequester prediction, based on absolutely nothing whatsoever.  

It'll happen.  Tomorrow will come and go, and I'm pretty sure someone will say the sky is falling.  They'll only be a little bit wrong.

These cuts are bad news, folks, and it won't take long at all for them to be felt.  I've already done my post on what'll get cut if it happens.   It really is bad news, gang.

The good news is, I think it'll end up a bit like the debt ceiling deal.  The cuts go through and stuff starts getting shut down.  Federal employees get furloughed and people start raising hell in their Congressional districts.  

You'll end up with something eerily similar to the debt ceiling fight, where Speaker Boehner will need to cobble together a coalition with the reasonable Republicans in the House, and let the tea party freaks, well, freak out.  Some of them have already called for his head if he allows a revenue increase and more spending (which is, of course, what is actually required as we ease out of this recession).  

I suspect the worst of the cuts will get fixed legislatively, maybe through a series of bills that restore the cuts and alternately cut even deeper in other places to make up the difference or -- God help John Boehner -- raise taxes.

In the end, the political fight will be uglier than the actual band-aid(s) covering the self-inflicted sequester idiocy.

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I'm burying this prediction, because it'll probably embarrass me later (or sooner).  And no, I haven't been drinking.  

Charlie Crist will not run for Governor of the State of Florida.

Boom, there.  I said it.  God, I feel a whole lot better. 

I know what you're thinking: Man, that Kirby's an idiot.  Sure, maybe.  That prediction is based on nothing more than a gut feeling.  

My case, in short, is that I think Charlie is going to wimp out.  Look, hospital grifter Governor Rick Scott may be the most unpopular governor in the country, but that doesn't mean he can't access a mountain of money to fend off his opponents.  

Charlie is a lot of things, but stupid is not one of them.  He knows that it'll be a huge fight -- and an ugly, protracted one at that -- if he runs against the guy who succeeded him in the Governor's Mansion.  I'm not saying Charlie always goes for the easy win, but...

Well.  Yes, I am.  

He's not going to do it, folks.  Watch and see.  

And while I'm driving straight over the cliff, let me say that I don't think Alex Sink will run, either.  I think she is smart enough to come to a similar conclusion as Charlie, but I also think she lost her best political advisor when Mr. McBride, her husband, died.  I just don't think she has the fight.  

Go ahead and pre-heat the oven for whatever it takes to cook crow.  I like mine with lots of Carolina barbecue sauce.

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Alright, now for a much safer prediction: The Pinellas County Commission seat currently occupied by Commissioner Susan Latvala will not go to former Republican State Representative Peter Nehr, who had filed to run against her.  Ruh-roh:

Days after he lost his bid for re-election last fall, former Rep. Peter Nehr of Palm Harbor used leftover campaign money to pay his live-in girlfriend $22,000 for "consulting," records show.

Nehr made three post-election payments to girlfriend Kim Marie, a 47-year-old acupuncturist, listing them as "consulting, editing and fundraising" expenses on his final campaign expenditure report.

Who knew that taking half-naked selfies wouldn't be the dumbest thing Peter Nehr did?  

The worst part here isn't that he paid her -- paying off his live-in girlfriend is not actually illegal, wouldn't you know it, and if you're only just now realizing that lax campaign financing is a problem, you really haven't been paying attention -- it is that he apparently made up a fictitious address in the financial disclosure report.  I'm no lawyer, but isn't it a crime to file false reports to the state?  

Anyway, if this guy gets elected to anything else, ever, we all get what we deserve. 

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It's almost Friday. 

Emmy was rockin' out to this earlier.  For three, she is a very good dancer.  And has great taste in music.

Almost Friday Tied to the Whipping Post Edition

by Benjamin J. Kirby

This week started with Finn having a pretty high fever.  

He is fine, now -- teething, which any parent will tell you is unpleasant, at best -- but mostly back to his old self of giggling at his sister and playing a mean game of peek-a-boo.

Still.

It's hard to see them sick when they're little.  And we've been incredibly lucky (knock on wood) -- both Finn and his sister have been pretty darn healthy.

So it's a tough start to the week when your kid is sick.

We're working on several things at work as well, which have impacted the blogging.  You might ask, how?  Don't you keep work separate from the political blogging?  Yes.  Yes, I do.  But one of my toughest issues is the ability to leave work at work.  I've gotten better over the years, but I'm not there yet.  And when things get hard at work, I often continue to think about it and noodle it through, even at home.

This isn't fair, of course, to Duncan and Finn and Emmy.  In fact, it's awful.   

But it happens.  And when I'm consumed (intellectually and emotionally) with work stuff, I just can't get my mind around doing a blog post.  

And I'm working on it. 

Finally, I have a different writing project I am working on as well.  I haven't talked about it yet because I at least wanted to get it started.  I'm... I don't know, more than 15,000 words into it.  

You hate to say I'm writing a novel, because that sounds like just about the most pretentious thing ever .  I'm writing.  I can tell you that it is fiction.  It involves small towns and murder.  A little (tiny) bit of mafia stuff, a little (less tiny but still small) bit of politics.  I have word count targets, and a pretty robust outline.  I have some character outlines as well, and the scenes fairly well laid out in my head, a lot on paper.

Because I'm early on in this project, I'm giving it plenty of time to succeed.  That means a lot of writing when I can (late into the evening, late at night).

Which of course means... less time for blogging.

It has been a crazy week, and I thank you for stopping by and reading, and for sticking with me.

On to the political nonsense. 

# # # #

Anyone taking bets?  

Is Alex Sink going to run for Governor again?  I'm going with no, with this article being my primary piece of evidence.

Watch Sink talk about politics, and the tone is much different. There's disgust over how Republican Gov. Rick Scott has led the state since he defeated her in 2010. There's frustration over policy she thinks the state should be pursing and isn't. And there are also moments where she just looks weary. The Democrat started and stopped her sentences when talking about whether she'll again seek the governor's office.

"I wish I weren't thinking about it," she said, after letting out a big sigh. "I just have too much of an idea of how things can be so much better for people."

Sink, 64, is torn. She wants to develop ideas through her FloridaNext foundation to make the state a place where startup businesses flourish, and she dreams of having a long, far-reaching effect on the state -- much like Jeb Bush did with education after he lost his first bid for governor in 1994. She also knows that her ideas would go much further if she sat in the governor's office, she just doesn't know if she has the will for another campaign.

She is "torn" -- that's not the fire you look for in a person who is filled with desire to serve.

I don't blame her.  When Bill McBride, her husband and himself a former candidate, died not long ago, she lost her best campaign consultant.  That is fairly evident throughout the rest of the piece linked above.

Look, I've been quite critical of Ms. Sink on this blog in the past, and so there'd be no reason in the world for her to ask my advice (aside from the fact that she doesn't actually know me, either).  If she were about to get in the race, I'd respectfully suggest that this kind of interview was not the way to go.  

Hopefully she'll keep up the good work at the FloridaNext foundation.  Sounds like they're doing some incredible things.

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The Chinese have, apparently, hacked most of Washington.

Start asking security experts which powerful Washington institutions have been penetrated by Chinese cyberspies, and this is the usual answer: almost all of them.

The list of those hacked in recent years includes law firms, think tanks, news organizations, human rights groups, contractors, congressional offices, embassies and federal agencies.

There's not one bit of this that ends well, and this may end up being the most under-appreciated -- and, with apologies to the Post, under-reported -- story in some time.

As they say, more as this develops...

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First up: the winners of the 2013 World Press Photo Awards.  Here's first prize in Sports Action Singes:

Wei Seng Chen/Malaysia

Here's the description for that particular photo:

Joy at the end of the run.

Feb. 12, 2012, Batu Sangkar, West Sumatra, Indonesia.

A jockey, his feet stepped into a harness strapped to the bulls and clutching their tails, shows relief and joy at the end of a dangerous run across rice fields. The Pacu Jawi (bull race) is a popular competition at the end of harvest season keenly contested between villages.

So many incredible photos.

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Via Kos, less than a quarter of Americans now identify themselves as "Republican".

The hits just keep on coming for the GOP, huh? Looking at the crosstabs, I actually calculate the number of self-identified at 24 percent, but that still means less than a quarter call themselves Republican. That compares to 31 percent Democrat, and 40 percent independent. (For comparison's sake, the 2012 presidential exit poll ended up 38 percent Democratic, 32 percent Republican, 29 percent independent or something else.)

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Via Bark Bark Woof Woof and digby, the story about former New Mexico Senator Pete Domenici fathering a child with the daughter of his Senate colleague, Paul Laxalt, caught my eye.

Domenici, 80, a Republican who served six terms in the Senate before retiring in 2008, and the mother of the child each released statements to the Albuquerque Journal acknowledging Domenici’s fatherhood.

“I deeply regret this and am very sorry for my behavior,” Domenici said. “I hope New Mexicans will view that my accomplishments for my beloved state outweigh my personal transgression.”

Hmm, he's "very sorry," of course, for his behavior.  Hoping his accomplishments for his "beloved" state "outweigh" his "personal transgression."

Yeah.  Interesting, because here's a favorite Domenici quote of mine:

Truthfulness is the first pillar of good character in the Character Counts program of which I have been part of establishing in New Mexico. Many of you in this chamber have joined me in declaring the annual "Character Counts Weeks." This program teaches grade school youngsters throughout America about six pillars of good character. Public and private schools in every corner of my state teach children that character counts; character makes a difference; indeed, character makes all the difference.

Guess which one of these pillars comes first? Trustworthiness. Trustworthiness.

So what do I say to the children in my state when they ask, "Didn't the President lie? Doesn't that mean he isn't trustworthy? Then, Senator, why didn't the Senate punish him?"

That is from the statement by then-Senator Domenici in February of 1999 talking about why he was going to vote to impeach President Clinton for "behavior unworthy of the President."

"Truthfullness," this guy says on the floor of the United States Senate.

The first pillar of good character.  Establishing a "Character Counts" program!  

"Character makes all the difference."

Trustworthiness.

"Doesn't that mean he isn't trus..."

Okay.  So here is my very serious, well thought out question for you, Senator Domenici, you double-standard, lying, piece of shit, dick-hole.

Oh, wait, no -- nevermind.  I don't have a question.  Just this: go fuck yourself, Pete.

# # # #

 Speaking of daddy's -- 3-D printer?  Daddy want.

Quick: name all the stupid things I would print with my 3-D printer. 

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It's almost Friday.

I don't know Emily Elbert, but I suspect we all will soon.

Almost Friday Invisible State Edition

by Benjamin J. Kirby

I have done a few posts on drones in warfare.  In a recent post, I talked about what we all now know, which is that the use of drones may in fact "take out" terrorists -- but it also kills a number of people who may or may not be terrorists, affiliated with terrorists, or may just be downright innocent:

The problem is, these "terrorists" are sometimes hard to identify as "terrorists".  They don't go around with a nametag that says "Hi, My Name Is Muhammed, and I'm a Terrorist!"  

They live in villages, they go to schools and they walk down streets with other people -- perfectly innocent people -- nearby.  

And that's why any reasonable military strategist would call it a clusterfuck -- a problem you didn't have when invading, say, Nazi Germany.  Land at Normandy Beach and shoot everything in sight.  Welcome to World War II, where flags and uniforms helped a lot.   

These are virtually impossible decisions, almost assuredly made more complicated by levels of secret intelligence we'll never know.

In another post, I talked about the concept of actually killing American citizens overseas using drone strikes.  

A man named Anwar al-Awlaki was killed by a U.S. predator drone strike in Yemen, across the Gulf of Aden from Somalia and Eritrea (where all those pirates have caused so many problems).  He was 40, my age.  That same strike also killed a man named Samir Khan

[snip]

Both men had been linked closely to the al-Qaeda terrorist network.  Awlaki had a hand inthe Fort Hood shootings, and had attempted to coordinate other terrorist attacks.  Khan was the editor of al-Qaeda's English language magazine (who knew they had a freakin' magazine).  Now, it would be real easy to say, Great, a couple more terrorists are dead.  Good work.  

But here's a key fact which may give you pause: both of these men were citizens of the United States of America -- they were born here.  

This week, we're seeing a Justice Department "white paper" outlining the legal... rationale, I guess, for why these kind of strikes are perfectly legal.

The 16-page memo, a copy of which was obtained by NBC News, provides new details about the legal reasoning behind one of the Obama administration’s most secretive and controversial polices: its dramatically increased use of drone strikes against al-Qaida suspects abroad, including those aimed at American citizens, such as the  September 2011 strike in Yemen that killed alleged al-Qaida operatives Anwar al-Awlaki and Samir Khan. Both were U.S. citizens who had never been indicted by the U.S. government nor charged with any crimes.  

Look, we're going to have to figure some shit out about these goddam drones.  I used to work at the Justice Department.  I love the Justice Department.  I think the most brilliant legal minds in the nation work at the Justice Department.

But the Justice Department may be confusing "legal" with "easy".  

When it comes to life and death, that's bad.   

Look, no one wants to be on the side of a terrorist, or even a suspected terrorist.  No one really wants to be on the side defending his or her rights.  But that's the point: whether we like it or not, Americans have rights.  Just because the Air Force has a kid flying the Predator over the mountains of Waziristan doesn't change the rights of whoever they're about to blow up.

No one wants to have our ancestors look back in 100 years and say, see, they may have been American, but they were about to blow up shit here at home, so it's a good thing we iced 'em with the Predator drone first... 

I just don't buy it, really.  I think what happened was that capturing enemy combatants -- terrorists, whatever -- on the field got complicated because the closing of Guantanamo got complicated.  No one (mostly Republicans, but Democrats, too) wanted to bring those guys out of the military facility in Guantanamo Bay to a federal court, convict them, and have them be housed in a ultra-high security facility in their own backyard.  Hooray, politics.  

This is the hard stuff we re-hired President Obama to figure out.  He'd better get working on it.  Fast.

# # # #

Karl Rove's outfit is attacking actress Ashley Judd because she was thinking about running for office.

Is that the new normal?  We run attack ads on people who are just exploring it?

What happens if she doesn't run?  Then Karl Rove just ran attack ads on... an attractive, wealthy actress who happens to have political views.

Wow.  

We're setting some pretty crap's ass precedents, here, gang.

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Mayor Foster and the City of St. Petersburg are going to screw up this Tampa Bay Rays thing aren't they?  

At this point, it's hard ot see how they stay at Tropicana Field -- a dome everyone (except me) hates.  We'll be lucky to just keep them in the Tampa Bay area.

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I am a huge fan of Wonkette, the irreverent and always hilarious blog out of Washington.

The other day, they had a post up about the Enterprise Florida mess, and I tweeted something about it. 

Rebecca Schoenkopf, the head honcho over there, favorited my tweeet.

Okay, that may be the nerdiest thing I've ever written on this blog.  But I actually don't care, because Rebecca Schoenkopf is an amazing writer, incredibly funny, and runs one of my all-time favorte blog.

So I win, hooray!

# # # # 

It's almost Friday.

Almost Friday Ready for Takeoff Edition

by Benjamin J. Kirby

I like politics and everything, but I have to admit: if there's too much going on, I just get lost.  I sometimes compare watching politics to being in the control tower at an airport.  You have to really see everything at three hundred and sixty degrees to get a feel for how things are interconnected, how they come together, how they work.

And even with a great view, high on a perch, sometimes you still get a traffic jam.  Maybe there's a delay in LaGuardia, or Chicago.  Problems with a plane in Dallas?  Hell, just get a couple of flights behind schedule, and you've screwed the whole thing up for the rest of the day.

That's how I sort of feel about where things are right now.  There's almost too much.  What do you follow?  And how deeply do you follow it?  

# # # # 

Sounds like Chuck Hagel had a hell of a time in front of the Senate today.  And now Republicans are starting to make noise about not confirming him for Secretary of Defense.

Chuck Hagel's chances of becoming the next Secretary of Defense might have diminished somewhat Thursday, after a choppy first half to his confirmation hearing emboldened Senate Republicans who think they may actually be able to prevent his confirmation.

"There's a possibility Republicans could block his nomination, especially after today's performance," a Senate Republican aide confirmed to BuzzFeed.

Look, I'm not the biggest Chuck Hagel cheerleader in the world, but you get the sense Republicans are looking for something -- anything -- they can use to serve up a defeat to President Obama.  Chuck Hagel is a Republican.  Can his own former colleagues in the Senate, his own party be this disenchanted with him? 

It's spectacles like this just remind everyone else that the system really is broken. 

# # # #

I suspect the Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ) scandal would get bigger play if there weren't so much other stuff going on in the world.  I mean, it has everything: sex, money, corrupt politicians from New Jersey.  

Oh, and Florida's in there, too.  Of course.

Sen. Robert Menendez’s office says he reimbursed a prominent Florida political donor $58,500 on Jan. 4 of this year for the full cost of two of three trips Menendez took on the donor’s plane to the Dominican Republic in 2010.

More details about the New Jersey senator’s trips emerged as his office said unsubstantiated allegations that the senator engaged in sex with prostitutes in the Dominican Republic are false.

I would do just about anything if the "prominent Florida political donor" isn't a "Tampa socialite."  Bonus points if we don't have to suffer the HuffingtonPost bombarding us with bikini-clad images of the prostitutes.  

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Color me shocked:  E-mails show Jeb's foundation pushes for laws that benefit funders

# # # #

Some interesting polling over at St. Pete Polls on the Gulfport Mayor's race, and some other issues.

In the race for Mayor of Gulfport, who do you support: Sam Henderson or Robert Worthington? (267 responses, margin of error ± 6.00% at a 95% confidence level)
Henderson: 30.5%
Worthington: 29.3%
Undecided: 40.2%

Wow, it's a tie.  And I don't know about you, but boy, that seems like a lot of undecideds.  

Check out the rest of the results (it's also interesting that both Sam and Bob have identical favorables/unfavorables).  It's worth your time.  

Also, I didn't know about the proposed charter amendment (with 38% approval, by the way).  Here's what it says, courtesy Deborah Clark, Supervisor of Elections for Pinellas County:

Vacancies; Filling of Vacancies

Shall the Charter of the City of Gulfport, Article III, Legislative, Section 306, Vacancies; Filling of Vacancies, be amended to establish the filling of vacancies within thirty (30) days, allowing the remaining membership when less than a quorum exists to fill vacancies and providing for a special election when there exists more than one hundred eighty (180) days until the next regular election. Providing for the filling of extraordinary vacancies by the Governor's Office?
YES

NO

Interesting question.  Should we fill vacant seats on the City Council by letting the City Council itself fill vacancies and set special elections.  I guess anything that doesn't meet that criteria with respect to time gets filled by the Governor.  

Well, I will have more on this -- and my endorsement for Gulfport Mayor -- coming soon.

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There is nothing wrong with your week that the eagley goodness of this video can't fix.

It's almost Friday.

 

Almost Friday So Much to Say Edition

by Benjamin J. Kirby

Big day in politics yesterday.

I think the biggest news was Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Capitol Hill going to work on some goofball Senator about Benghazi.

Here's the must-see video:

This was the biggest shut-down yet of the Republican non-sense around the attack in Benghazi that took the life of four Americans.  For most of us, it reminded us that we will miss Hillary Clinton on the world stage.

Other news -- which is really today's news -- are the hearings around her replacement, Senator John Kerry, who is expected to sail through the confirmation process.

The international and national security news hits just kept on comin' with a late-breaking story that outgoing Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta lifted the ban on women in combat. 

Outgoing Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta plans to announce Thursday a lifting of the ban on female service members in combat roles, a watershed policy change that was informed by women’s valor in Iraq and Afghanistan and that removes the remaining barrier to a fully inclusive military, defense officials said.

Panetta made the decision “upon the recommendation of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,” a senior defense official said Wednesday, an assertion that stunned female veteran activists who said they assumed that the brass was still uneasy about opening the most physically arduous positions to women. The Army and the Marines, which make up the bulk of the military’s ground combat force, will present plans to open most jobs to women by May 15.

With respect to the ideals of equality being put into practice, I love it.  With respect to, well, combat, I'm not.  

Here at home, the Senate has reached a pretty weak filibuster reform deal.

Progressive senators working to dramatically alter Senate rules were defeated on Thursday, with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and his counterpart, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), set to announce a series of compromise reforms on the Senate floor that fall far short of the demands. The language of the deal was obtained by HuffPost and can be read here and here.

[snip]

The deal will address the filibuster on the motion to proceed by changing the amount of debate time that would follow a cloture vote from 30 hours to four, speeding up Senate business and allowing more legislation to reach the floor. But the deal still requires Democrats to muscle 60 votes to invoke cloture on that motion, despite Reid's earlier suggestion that he would bar a filibuster on that motion entirely.

Yeah... it's weak tea.

I need to look at it a bit more closely, but it is not readily apparent to me how this changes things in any meaningful way.

Also from the "today" files, a bit of good news on the jobs front: initial unemployment claims dropped to a five-year low.

Drilling down a little further, here in Florida, hospital grifter Governor Rick Scott is trying a ham-handed political ploy, giving teacher a modes raise.

I am sure the teachers appreciate the cash, but is there anyone -- on either side of the political spectrum -- who doesn't see this for what it really is?  (Which is, of course, a play for votes as the Governor gears up for re-election.)

So, it's been a busy few days, kind of crazy week, actually.

Which explains why I've been so lousy at keeping up with things on this blog, of course.

# # # #

Also this week, it was the fortieth anniversary of the Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision which made abortion legal in this country.  

This is an issue which remains as volatile today as it has ever been, which is kind of interesting, because if you look at how Americans actually feel about it, we really haven't changed all that much in forty years.  In the mid-1970s, 55% of Americans believed that abortion should only be legal under certain circumstances.  Around the same time frame, 20-something percent of Americans believed it should be legal in all circumstances, and somewhere around 19% believed it should be illegal in all circumstances.

Those numbers moved -- with a fair amount of volatility in the 1990s, though nothing too radical -- but nothing has really changed.  Today, 52% of Americans believe abortion should only be legal under certain circumstances, 28% think it should be legal in all circumstances, and 18% think it should be outlawed entirely.  

Now, some have used that Gallup polling data to contradict what was reported by NBC News after they conducted their own poll, which they said shows a "majority, for the first time, want abortion to be legal." 

From the Human Events ("powerful conservative voices"!) piece:

The Gallup polling organization conducted a poll on abortion to coincide with the 40th anniversary of Roe vs. Wade.  The results were quite different from the headline-grabbing NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll that purported to show the first-ever majority support for abortion on demand.

[snip]

Gallup found 53 percent support for keeping the Roe decision in place, with 29 percent in favor of overturning it. 

No... What Gallup found was 80% believe it should be legal in either all or certain circumstances, and 18% thought it should be illegal.  

The larger story here is that our national attitudes around this touchy subject haven't really changed all that much.  This is actually the beg elephant in the room John Hayward at Human Events makes a noble -- but ultimately doomed -- effort at tackling.

Surely much of the discrepancy between the two polls comes from the nature of the questions, and the way the results are tabulated to create an impression of broad support or opposition. That big 52 percent majority favoring “the middle position” in the Gallup poll could be subdivided in any number of ways, depending on what restrictions they believe should be in place. How many limitations on abortion does one have to accept, in order to cross the border between “pro-choice” and “pro-life?”

For that matter, we might find some subdivisions within the always-legal or always-illegal crowd. Does everyone in Gallup’s 28 percent of absolute abortion supporters approve of sex-selection abortions?

I am sure there were discrepancies in the questions -- they are two different polling outfits -- but the fact that their bottom-lines more or less match up with respect to the bigger picture (that a great majority of Americans want abortion to be legal and available, at least in some capacity) doesn't fit the anti-abortion narrative.

Maybe I've just read it all wrong, but Hayward kind of makes my point for me in his closing paragraph: 

Are the American people really moving in either direction, in a significant and sustained way? On the 40th anniversary of Roe vs. Wade, NBC and the Wall Street Journal say yes, Gallup says no. It can be difficult to get a consistent reading on a subject that many people find difficult to discuss… which is not at all the same thing as saying they don’t believe it is important.

That's right, actually: the American people aren't moving in either direction, not in any real way.  Maybe the real gripe with the NBC piece was just the headline, which was true... but it has, more or less, been true for a long time.  

# # # #

It's nice to see the Ybor City Stogie back again.

# # ##

It's almost Friday.

Almost Friday This Time Edition

by Benjamin J. Kirby

They're closing a whole ton of Sweetbay Supermarkets around here.

We're Publix people, so... you know.  No big deal for us.  

Still.  Some folks are freaked out.  And they should be.  There are what's called "food deserts" in Pinellas County -- and across Florida, and the country, actually.  Less opportunity for poor-, and even middle-class or lower-middle-class families to find healthy food options is never a good thing.  

And any time there's an example of Wal-Mart squeezing out the competition, you know that's bad.

# # # #

You know, one of every two kids in America will be on food assistance at some point.  America...

Of course, those are just some of those "Obama gifts," aren't they?   

# # # #

The Republicans are having a retreat to figure out what went wrong for them in November, and what to do about it going forward.  

There is, as you can imagine, a great deal to discuss.

So far, there have been some... um... logistical issues:

But the conversation became a bit sticky when, near the end, a reporter pointed out that “in the vein of bad communication,” a panel talk called “Discussion on Successful Communication With Minorities and Women” was being held on Friday in the Burwell Plantation Room at Kingsmill Resort, named after a former slave-owning family.

They quickly delighted in pointing out that Democrats met there, too, so, as the experts say, nanny nanny nanny boo boo.  

Yeah, the difference would be that Democrats didn't have to have a "Discussion on Successful Communication With Minorities and Womne," (Breakout Session I: Not Referring to Women as "Binders").  

It's my friend Michael's rule with strip clubs: if you have to tell me that it's The Sexiest Ladies! then you can be assured that the virtual opposite is true.  (This rule applies to a lot of things, including restaurants; if you're telling me it's "the best" something via a neon sign in the front, I can usually be assured that it it likely the worst.)

The point is not really that they meet in a terribly-named room.  It's that they have to have the meeting at all.

# # # #

It's almost Friday.

That this song came my way at the same time we're having all the talk of guns and gun control lately is pure delicious coincidence.

When I first heard it (on Spotify), I'd have sworn it was from the late 80s, around the time I was graduating from high school, going up to college in Boston for a cold winter.  The video only reinforces that notion.

Turns out to not be the case at all.  Even a little bit.  Hell, the singer, Elly Jackson, was born the year before I went to Curry College in Milton, Mass. 

But watch this video and see if it doesn't transport you to an MTV-esque place and time.  Doesn't seem like all that long ago, does it? 

Almost Friday Priceless Collection Edition

by Benjamin J. Kirby

The race for a job you could not possibly pay me enough to take is heating up: Chair of the Florida Democratic Party.

Please don't get me wrong: I love Florida and I love the Democrats here.  We have so much in which to take a great deal of pride.  Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz is the chair of the national Democratic Party.  Here in the Tampa Bay area, Congresswoman Kathy Castor is on the Budget Committee as well as the Armed Services Committee -- both those committees are powerhouses in Congress.

Oh, yeah -- Florida Democrats delivered our 29 Electoral Votes to Obama... twice.

You may not have noticed, but the current occupant of the Governor's Mansion -- hospital grifter Rick Scott -- remains one of the most unpopular governor's in the entire country.  

There are opportunities for Democrats in the Sunshine State. 

That said, there is much work to do in the back rooms of the party structure and elsewhere.  Indeed, Scott is the Governor and though his poll ratings remain low, anyone who thinks he won't put up a fight against whoever Democrats nominate is smoking something.  

We also have a sort of inmates-running-the-asylum deal in the Republican-lead State Legislature.  Even if Democrats are successful in defeating Scott, there will be considerable obstacles on the way to cleaning up a considerable mess.

So, now we have Allison Tant (read her letter and plan outline here) and Alan Clendenin seeking to lead Florida Democrats.

Mr. Clendenin is from the Tampa Bay area, and so I like him already.

Ms. Tant is from Tallahassee, is a former lobbyist and advocate for children's issues, and so I like her, too.

Mr. Clendenin, in his plan, said this -- which is right on:

We must build a farm team bench to ensure our viability and future success.  You don't build a house from the top down.  You start by laying a strong foundation that will support the structure as it grows.  High visibility, high profile elections attract a lot of attention.  But if we continue to neglect our political entry-level positions, we will never enjoy statewide success.

I have long been an advocate for grooming the bench.  You have to start with the farm team -- the state legislature races, the mayorships, the city councils and county commissions.  Get folks elected there, and winning the larger races will come.

Ms. Tant has said, this, and it is also exactly right:

Cultivate & Engage Obama Donors – Having spent years raising funds for President Obama’s 2008 & 2012 campaigns, I know there are many donors who contributed to President Obama, but have not invested in the Florida Democratic Party. As Chair, I will spend time cultivating these donors and bringing them on board as Florida Democratic Party donors so we can grow our donor base and fundraising capacity.

I also agree with that... a lot.  There is work to be done there, and I'm glad to see a potential leader of the Florida Democratic Party acknowledge it.    

Who's going to be the next leader of the Florida Democrats?  I don't know.  Who am I going to support.  Don't know that, either.  I'll give them both a serious look and let you know.

# # # #

Well, Congressman John Boehner is still Speaker of the House... barely.

House Speaker John A. Boehner narrowly won re-election Thursday to a second term overseeing a chamber that has proved most difficult for him to manage, surviving a rebellion from his most conservative wing of the GOP caucus.

The vote followed several recent insurrections from rank-and-file Republicans that left Boehner (R-Ohio) in a less powerful posture heading into critical negotiations this year.

He survived the defections of 12 Republicans, with the opposition coming from the most conservative wing of the caucus. The final vote tally was 220 for Boehner to 192 for House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).

Very much insdie baseball, but the fact that the vote was as close as it was is a fairly big deal.  What it means, basically, is that Boehner still has a fractured coalition of Republicans with whom to work -- and a whole plate-full of "fiscal cliff"-type deals to look forward to in the year ahead.

# # # #

Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is leaving at the end of January.  

I noted last week that Lisa Jackson was leaving as head of the EPA. 

None of this is surprising.  Secretary Clinton will be leaving soon enough to make room for John Kerry.  The personnel floodgates are opening, and the political musical chairs will begin soon enough... and the political who's-going-where stories will, too.

# # # #

Good news for Google in the anti-trust world.

The Federal Trade Commission on Thursday found that Google had not violated antitrust or anticompetition statutes in the way it structures its Web search application — handing a big victory to the search giant in its ongoing dispute with regulators.

I am not a lawyer, as I've said many times on this blog, and I'm definitely not an expert in anti-trust, but I really had a hard time ever understanding the case against Google.

And no, it's not just that I have a Chromebook that I love.

# # # #

Check this out if you want to see all the good stuff you should have read in 2012 and didn't.

# # # #

This ain't no place to be if you planned on bein' a star. 

It's almost Friday.

Almost Friday Drink It Up Edition

by Benjamin J. Kirby

To be honest with you, I've been looking for a reason to quit Starbucks.  

And now, Starbucks Chairman, President and CEO Howard Schultz has given me the perfect reason.

To be fair, I don't go to Starbucks all the time.  I don't even go very often.  Once, maybe twice a week, max.  The coffee is actually okay -- and I like the new Refreshers.

But the idea that a coffee company can write "come together" on your coffee cup (when they write it... oops) and that this will help us avert the so-called "fiscal cliff" is ridiculous, and is kind of an insult to people who actually appreciate the process of governance and advocacy.  

It's a cynical ploy, because it's not really about averting a fiscal cliff -- it's about Schultz pimping "Fix the Debt," which is the Simpson/Bowles scam loved by Washington insiders because it is bi-partisan, the political Holy Grail.  In reality, it's about slashing your Social Security and Medicare benefits.  

I think a handful of the first comments under Mr. Schultz's blog post actually tell the tale:

Let's come together to cut social security, medicare and medicaid by buying 5 dollar coffees.

Starbucks could do a lot to jump start the economy by giving all of their employees a dollar an hour raise. Give their profit margins, they can easily afford it.

Perhaps your company could start by paying their fair share of taxes, not just at home but in every country in which you operate. It is companies like yours, exploiting loopholes to avoid paying your fair share, that have helped us toward this mess. Shirking your responsibilities negatively affects the economy as well as eroding your credibility as a force for positive change. Remove the plank from your eye before taking Washington to task for the dust in theirs.

Give it up. No matter how many different colors of lipstick you put on that pig, you are not going to get popular support for the idea that we should all sacrifice so that the people who actually crashed the economy don't have to pay a little bit more in taxes.

And they go on and on.

Now Starbucks has partnered with the AOL-driven Patch network on this idea that coffee cups will change the world.  

I dislike the idea that Democrats haven't worked on this and need to "come together" with Republicans (after all, it's Speaker Boehner who is on vacation right now).

I'm not interested in a plan that slashes Social Security, cuts Medicare at a time when we need it most.  I'm not interested in a discussion about the debt unless the first words out of anyone's mouth are "let's end these two wars and make the wealthy pay their fair share."  

Beyond that, damn the cliff and to hell with pricey coffee.  I'll find a local barista.

# # # #

Speaking of the cliff, former Labor Secretary Robert Reich says we pretty much have to go over in order for anything real to happen.  

Obama could decide going over the cliff isn’t so bad after all – as long as he and congressional Democrats introduce legislation early in the 2013 that gives a tax cut to the middle class retroactively to January 1^st (extending the Bush tax cut to the first $250,000 of income) and restores most spending — andRepublicans feel compelled to go along.

But with Boehner’s hands tied and the fanatics in charge, this gambit becomes far riskier. What if we go over the cliff and House Republicans continue to hold out against any tax increases on the rich while demanding major cuts in Medicare and Social Security?

Secretary Reich asks a good question.  I'm not sure anyone has the answers.

# # # # 

And speaking of Speaker Boehner and politics in the House of Representatives, can someone explain to me what Norm Ornstein is thinking with this piece?  Because... well.  No.  Just... no.  No.

# # # #

Russian President Vladimir Putin will sign a law barring Americans from adopting Russian babies.  

President Vladimir V. Putin said on Thursday that he would sign into law a bill banning the adoption of Russian children by American citizens, retaliating against an American law that punishes Russians accused of violating human rights and dealing a potentially grave setback to bilateral relations.

This is a big deal.

And I fear "grave setback" might be understating the issue.

Paging Secretary Clinton (hope you're feeling better).

# # # #

Lisa Jackson, the Administrator of the EPA, is leaving her post.  Not a big shocker -- I think there will be a lot of Cabinet-level turnover for Obama II.  

# # # #

This is the weirdest thing about Newt Gingrich, easy.  And you have to admit: that's saying something.

# # # #

Lots of notable deaths in 2012, especially in the world of music.  

Here was a big one for me: Levon Helm, a fellow Arkansan and more notably of The Band.  He died in April of this year.  

I've been playing stuff from The Band ever since, and it just gets better and better.

It's almost Friday.

Almost Friday The Changing Face of Politics Edition

by Benjamin J. Kirby

The headline that caught my attention yesterday was from Talking Points Memo about the new Fed policy: Fed Announces Bombshell New Stimulus Policy

The Federal Reserve took a genuinely unexpected step Wednesday afternoon when it announced it would significantly enhance its current monetary easing program. The Fed, for the first time, committed to keeping monetary policy loose until the economy crosses precise thresholds — specifically, an unemployment rate below 6.5 percent or a inflation above 2.5 percent.

It also upped its monthly asset purchases by spending an additional $45 billion a month on Treasuries.

And here's the press release from the Fed itself:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October suggests that economic activity and employment have continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months, apart from weather-related disruptions. Although the unemployment rate has declined somewhat since the summer, it remains elevated. Household spending has continued to advance, and the housing sector has shown further signs of improvement, but growth in business fixed investment has slowed. Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee’s longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee remains concerned that, without sufficient policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions. Furthermore, strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month.

In other words, we see that things are getting better... but they're not getting better fast enough.  As Brian Beutler points out in the TPM piece, the members of the Fed Board of Governors were much more divided about what to do before the election. 

They apparently got the message.  

I'll be the first to admit -- as I always do when talking about stories like this -- that I'm not an economist.  Still, I think I get the general idea: Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve Bank are trying to do a couple of things.  

One, they're freeing up money for businesses to invest.  That's a good way to stimulate a sluggish economy.  Two, it would appear this is a kind of back-stop -- or maybe a foothold, a hedging of bets, maybe -- against going over the "fiscal cliff" everyone is so worried about.

In any event, this is a major play in the ongoing -- and increasingly urgent -- story of the economy and economic recovery in this country.

# # # # 

Back to social issues: the Supreme Court will take up California's Proposition 8, which defines marriage as "between a man and a woman" -- their anti-gay marriage law.  Sahil Kapur has a good run-down of possible outcomes, basically:

1.  All gay marriage bans are struck down

2.  Only Proposition 8 itself is overturned

3.  Proposition 8 is upheld

4.  The Supremes decided that it is sort of being presented in the wrong way, and they kick it back downstairs.  

I'm betting -- based on nothing at all -- on Sahil's second option.  Why?  Again, just guessing -- and, to give a similar disclaimer as above, I'm no lawyer -- but I'd think they would say that Proposition 8 doesn't "ban" anything, but that the language in the proposition itself is exclusionary.  This would mean an overturning of the specific proposition.

The up-sides for the conservative anti-gay crowd in this scenario might be that the Supreme Court Justices (particularly the more conservative ones) would hand gay marriage advocates a win in this battle, but supply the anti-gay activists a blueprint for winning the war.  By demonstrating how Proposition 8 is unconstitutional, they may well be outlining how to make these kinds of hateful, exclusionary thing follow the letter of the law.    

The up-side for gay marriage advocates -- and those of us with, you know, a human heart -- is that the tides of history are moving in our direction.  We can hope the Supreme Court will do the right thing.  And they should.  But even if they don't, even they would have to know it's just a matter of time... and they would be on the wrong side of history.

# # # # 

Can I confess something to you?  

I do not understand the filibuster in the United States Senate.

I mean, I know what it is, but I don't get it.  No one likes it.  No one.  Why can't we just get rid of it?

# # # #

To be fair, the filibuster isn't the only thing obstructing progress in Washington, D.C. -- The Fix has a couple of good charts, here:

When you have 85 percent of the House winning with more than 55 percent of the vote, and large majorities of Members — particularly on the Republican side — winning with between 60 percent and 70 percent of the vote, the reason why compromise is so hard to come by becomes apparent.  

The biggest culprit here is redistricting — the decennial re-drawing of congressional lines — which over the past two decades has been defined, by in large, by the two parties looking to make as many non-competitive seats as possible by a) strengthening their own incumbents and b) packing members of the opposition party into as few — albeit incredibly safe — seats as possible.

Like the filibuster, we know how to fix this -- we know how to make this right.  

So... let's make it right.

# # # #

Speaking of the United States Senate and things that have long overstayed their welcome in Washington, D.C., looks like Senator Joe Lieberman had a sort of depressing send-off.

It was a lonely farewell for Joe Lieberman.

When the senior senator from Connecticut stood to give his parting address Wednesday afternoon, just one of his colleagues, Delaware Democrat Tom Carper, was with him on the Senate floor.

As Lieberman plodded through his speech, thanking everybody from his wife to the Capitol maintenance crews, a few longtime friends trickled in.

Good riddance, I say.

Fellow Floridian and Balloon-Juice contributor Betty Cracker has the must-read take-down on the whole thing (and keep reading for some hard-to-watch video of Barbara Walters and the exact reason I don't watch morning TV "news" shows -- or any morning TV, for that matter).

# # # #

Duncan was out of town for work the last couple of days.  Emmy and Finn and I missed her a whole lot.  It's not that doing the day-to-day stuff without her is so difficult (though it is), it's that having her around is so much more fun than not.  I'm glad she's back today.  It's been a long week.

It's almost Friday.

Almost Friday Here In My Mind Edition

by Benjamin J. Kirby

The Pinellas County Commission has already come to its collective sense and voted to return flouride to the county water supply.  Coming up next will be a most interesting vote on a domestic partner registry.    

Like the domestic partnership registries in the cities of Gulfport, St. Petersburg and Clearwater, the county law would grant unmarried couples, gay or straight, certain rights that currently are afforded only through marriage.

It would allow unmarried couples to visit each other in hospital emergency rooms, make healthcare decisions for each other in crises, and be notified in emergencies, just as a family member would be.

This is one of those things that just makes sense in this day and age.  Duncan and I are married, but I would hope that if we weren't, we would be able to determine things like hospital visitation rules.  

I'm glad Gulfport -- where we live -- lead the way on this, along with our neighboring city, St. Petersburg.  And I'm glad Pinellas will help to lead the way in Florida.  

# # # #

Senator Jim DeMint, a Republican from South Carolina, is resigning to go lead the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think-tank.

DeMint is one of the hard-right neo-conservatives who have helped make the Senate a pretty much unwatchable kind of place.  But from my view, his departure is a kind of victory:

“I think the problem is, as conservatives, we have not taken enough control of our message and our ideas and communicated them directly to the American people,” he told Limbaugh. “That’s what we want to do at Heritage.”

First elected in 2004 and easily reelected in 2010, DeMint has led the conservative charge in the upper chamber, a role he has embraced and one which has often put him at odds with Republican leadership.

This kind of talk ought to be read as the best possible news for Democrats, progressives and even liberals.  Because DeMint is apparently telling Limbaugh (ugh) this without a hint of irony.  Conservatives "have not taken enough control of [the] message"?  Really?

What about the conservative president (and his neo-conservative Vice President) who oversaw eight full years of rightward shift in this country, championing exorbitant tax cuts for wealthy and two wars?  That ended only four years ago.  What about the tea-party-lead "revolution" from just two years ago that helped Republicans sweep to power in Congress?  

 I love that the Republicans are now going to try and re-brand themselves as the long-suffering, aggrieved underdogs of politics.  This is, of course, nonsense.  

# # # #

How do you filibuster your own bill?  

Didn't I just say the Senate is broken?

# # # #

Not politics, but this is incredibly depressing....

...and totally catchy. 

# # # #

It's almost Friday.

Almost Friday Beg Steal Borrow Edition

by Benjamin J. Kirby

I don't talk about it enough on this blog, but climate change is a huge issue for me.

It is big mostly because it's not about me.  The real effects of the terrible things we do to the environment today won't be seen in my lifetime -- they'll be endured by my children.

That's unacceptable to me.  And so when it's a choice between a candidate whose essential position on the environment is "Drill, baby, drill!" and one who is interested in alternative ideas (and starts by saying "Working to keep our communities and children healthy"), the choice is a no-brainer for me.

So I was glad to see independent Mayor of New York Michael Bloomberg endorse President Obama today in a piece entitled "A Vote for a President to Lead on Climate Change".   

Our climate is changing. And while the increase in extreme weather we have experienced in New York City and around the world may or may not be the result of it, the risk that it might be -- given this week’s devastation -- should compel all elected leaders to take immediate action.

[snip]

But we can’t do it alone. We need leadership from the White House -- and over the past four years, President Barack Obama has taken major steps to reduce our carbon consumption, including setting higher fuel-efficiency standards for cars and trucks. His administration also has adopted tighter controls on mercury emissions, which will help to close the dirtiest coal power plants (an effort I have supported through my philanthropy), which are estimated to kill 13,000 Americans a year.

Yes.  To all of that.

What does a Bloomberg endorsement mean politically for the President?  I don't know.

I do know that at this point, the campaign is all about the ground game -- about get out the vote, GOTV -- about momentum.  New York was always going to go for President Obama, but I wonder how many independent-minded voters out there who like and respect Mayor Bloomberg will take this into consideration before heading to the polls next week?

And I wonder just how much this blunts the momentum (even further) of Romney's underlying message which is that he's a successful businessman, and thus would be a better President than President Obama... maybe hard to say.  But the endorsement of one of the most successful businessmen in America for the other guy doesn't do Romney any favors.

I'm sorry for Sandy's destruction and the horrible mess and lives lost in New York, New Jersey and the whole Northeast.  But I am glad this issue is on the front burner of an influential politician like Bloomberg.

# # # #

Here's an interesting Florida stat:  the crime rate is down 3.8 percent for the first half of the year.

Crime continued to decline in Florida the first six months of 2012.

Reported crime fell 3.8 percent compared to the first six months of the previous year, according to statistics released Thursday by the Florida Department of Law Enforcement.

Violent crime dropped 5.3 percent, and non-violent crime declined 3.6 percent.

Great news.

# # # #

Speaking of Florida: did you know that more than 3 million of us have already voted?

That's awesome.

# # # #

I didn't realize that when you started a SuperPAC, you were obligated to trade in every working brain cell in your head.

# # # #

They've got to stop with this crazy shit.  They really do.  

Or at least stop running for office.

"...the rape thing"?  Really?  

# # # #

Alright, I'm on a plane to Chicago tomorrow morning, and with my fellow National Association of Planning Council Board Members throughout, so if there is a post, it'll be pretty late. 

# # # #

It's almost Friday.  Back with more soon.

Almost Friday Better Way Edition

by Benjamin J. Kirby

I know I've been whining a lot lately about blogging and the election.

Sorry about that.

Anyway, this was a kind of interesting piece from King of the Liberal Bloggers, Kos of DailyKos fame.

It's a different world today, with everyone playing their role -- online and off. And given our continued traffic growth, it's clear people crave a place like Daily Kos, gathering to fight for a common cause.

The downside to the growth of Daily Kos and the professionalization of our medium is that the small-time blogger is on the verge of extinction. That chaotic cacophony of amateur online voices was beautiful while it lasted, though.

Different world, indeed.

# # # #

Colin Powell endorsed Obama again.  I think that's generally a good thing.

I have mixed emotions on Powell.  A large part of me can't forgive him his lies to the U.N. in the run-up to the Iraq War.  Men and women died because of his line of bullshit.

That said, his endorsement of Obama on Meet the Press in '08 is still one of the most remarkable political statments I've ever heard.

# # # #

I know I've had a lot to say about how crappy drones and the drone strike program really is -- but I heard this on NPR yesterday and was just fascinated: they're experimenting with an aircraft that can go 3,600 miles per hour.

I hate the reasoning for why they're doing it --  "the Pentagon has been testing hypersonic technologies in hopes of being able to deliver strikes around the globe within minutes." -- but the idea that we're even talking about traveling Mach 6 -- six times the speed of sound -- is breathtaking.  

My first question was: how in the hell would you fly something that fast? 

# # # #

And just think, not that long ago, we were learning how to record sounds and voices on what amounts to tinfoil.  Here is one of the first known recordings, ever... and there's a blooper.

Somebody call Tom Bergeron (and, um, see if he'll take a recording with, you know, no video.  Or whatever...). 

# # # # 

It's almost Friday.

Almost Friday Flyover Edition

by Benjamin J. Kirby

During the debate the other night, Nina Gonzalez asked this question of President Obama:

President Obama, during the Democratic National Convention in 2008, you stated you wanted to keep AK-47s out of the hands of criminals. What has your administration done or planned to do to limit the availability of assault weapons?

Great question.  

I thought Obama's answer was actually pretty good, and at the heart of it was the idea that we ought to reintroduce the assault weapons ban.  

Governor Romney had the follow up:

Yeah, I’m not in favor of new pieces of legislation on — on guns and taking guns away or making certain guns illegal. We, of course, don’t want to have automatic weapons, and that’s already illegal in this country to have automatic weapons.

This is one I wish Governor Romney hadn't gotten wrong.  But he did:

Fully automatic weapons -- guns that fire continuously when the trigger is held down -- are legal to possess in the United States but are tightly regulated.

After that, things took a turn for the worse in his answer:

But let me mention another thing [to change the culture of violence]. And that is parents. We need moms and dads, helping to raise kids. Wherever possible the — the benefit of having two parents in the home, and that’s not always possible. A lot of great single moms, single dads. But gosh to tell our kids that before they have babies, they ought to think about getting married to someone, that’s a great idea.

Look, I actually get it: safe and stable families do, in fact, produce better outcomes for kids.  I think that Governor Romney stated that as ineloquently as I've ever heard it, but that was his larger point.  Happy, healthy, smart kids in stable homes have better outcomes -- ie, they're not gunning each other down with AK-47s.

Fine.  He got some well-earned guff for that -- even from me, on Facebook:

...because two parents who are married are literally impervious to AK-47 gunfire. #debate #superparents

Now, Romney might've actually recovered from delivering this point so weakly, had his idiot son Tagg not stepped right in it:

Mitt Romney's eldest son weighed in on the second presidential debate on Wednesday, joking that the debate's contentious nature made him want to "take a swing" at President Obama.

So the answer to preventing violence -- gun violence or otherwise, presumably -- lies with the parents.  Two parents, we're told in as condescending a way as you can imagine.  

If Tagg Romney wants to "take a swing" at the President, what does that say about his parents?  

# # # #

Nice of Tagg Romney to prove my point once and for all about this being the bully election, by the way.

Indeed, Mitt Romney is nothing more than a bully -- which explains why he got so flustered the other night.  Bullies don't like getting their asses kicked.  

His son is nothing more than a petulant bully, either.  

I'm real glad I could call it back in June, but what I didn't anticipate is how bitter this election cycle would make folks.  I should have known.  Because just dealing with a bully -- much less actually being bullied -- makes you kind of bitter and angry.  And when you're a Democrat -- particularly a liberal Democrat -- it's hard to accept that you sometimes have to stand up to bullies using the same tactics they use.  In other words, fighting back ain't always real palatable.  

I have seen more folks than I care to -- and a lot of them being folks I care about -- say they're just disgusted with the whole thing.  They can't stand to be on Twitter, they can't stand to be on Facebook.  The whole thing is a cynical, ugly mess. 

I agree... to a point.  The frustration point for me lies with our broken national media apparatus which just can't seem to call it like it is in the twisted name of "equality" and "balance".  Mitt Romney is an awful character and he's a liar and a serial flip-flopper of herculean proportions.  

And he is quite literally trying to use SuperPAC money to, well, bully his way to the White House.  Imagine what four years of that guy would be like.

Talk about trauma.

# # # #

The CIA wants to expand the drone strike program.

I'm going to go ahead and say: bad idea. 

# # # #

Newsweek was a staple for me gowing up -- more so TIME, I guess.  

And now it is gone...

 # # # # 

I'm a big proponent of social media, but I'm not at all surprised by this study which says Facebook ads are ineffective.

# # # #

It's almost Friday.

Almost Friday I Made a Lot of Mistakes Edition

by Benjamin J. Kirby

Anyone that has even a passing interest in politics needs to take the time to read Jill Lepore's piece in the New Yorker on the very first campaign consultancy.  It's called "The Lie Factory" and it is fantastic.

# # # #

If you think you're depressed about the debates -- and you probably shouldn't be -- then go ahead and read this story about a young man here in Florida named Christian Fernandez, who killed his two year-old brother.  He was almost assuredly on-track to face life in prison, until the U.S. Supreme Court ruled earlier this year that you can't send juveniles to prison for life without parole.

Christian's life has been a nightmare.  Given his rough start, it will almost assuredly continue to be a nightmare for the rest of his life, whether he spends it in prison or not.

It's stories like this that remind us of what politics is really supposed to be about. 

# # # # 

The tragic stories of children like Christian Fernandez really do put things like presidential debates and their outcomes in perspective.  

Yes, as I mentioned this morning, the President's performance was off.  We're still four-plus weeks out, people.  It's still kind of a long time.  And there are still something like three debates to suffer through endure have. 

The best rhetorical question I've seen on the debate deal was basically this: pre-debate, everyone was writing the Romney obituary.  Obama had it in the bag, and by most reasonable polling, was on-track for an electoral blow-out.  That was with five, six, seven weeks to go.  

Don't you suppose it is in the best interest of mainstream media outlets -- network and cable news outlets, newspapers -- to make this as much of a contest as it can possibly be right up to the last minute?

Keep watching over the next few weeks, gang.  

And let's remember -- there's so much at stake. 

# # # #

It's almost Friday.

Almost Friday Just Add Water Edition

by Benjamin J. Kirby

Did Mitt Romney douse himself in fake tanning stuff for an event with Latino voters in order to appear more... I don't know, more brown?  Because that's what appeals to Latino voters of all political persuasions.  

Frankly, I'm reluctant to trust a website with the word "gossip" in the URL, but there it is nonetheless.

If it is true -- and even the inept Romney Campaign has to be smart enough to know they can't confirm this, true or not -- then that would actually be the end of the Romney Campaign.  It would be the end of this presidential election.  All over.  Done.  Wrap it up.  

See you in 2016.

Because you can't do that and have this audio released in the same two-week period and not be cooked, politically speaking.

In one of a series of clips from a secretly recorded campaign fundraiser, Mitt Romney makes a joking reference to his family's complicated history in Mexico, guessing that if his father George had been "born of Mexican parents, I'd have a better shot at winning this."

The comments mark a rare moment of levity on immigration for Romney, and they're a somewhat unusual reference to his family's complicated history in Mexico. "I mean, I say that jokingly," he adds, "but it would be helpful to be Latino."

Yes, he should be done based on that "joke" alone.  He's not, mostly because there has to be some alternative out there... 

If the skin-darkening thing is real, then I'd expect the early defections we're seeing now will multiply greatly, and be profoundly uglier in their skewering of the nominee.

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Chris Bowers at DailyKos has another, more in-depth take on Democrats and Congress, something I explored a bit yesterday.

An analysis by Daily Kos Elections has identified 152 Democratic House incumbents who are not listed as vulnerable by any major election prognosticator and who are also not running for higher office. According to their most recent FEC reports, these 152 Democrats have just over $87,500,000 in their campaign bank accounts, combined.

Now, these Democrats are neither deadbeats nor hoarders. In almost every case, they have already given sizable sums to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (which coordinates Democratic House election efforts nationwide) and/or directly to Democratic candidates in competitive House races. Still, even a small percentage of the $87,500,000 would go a long way toward helping Democrats win the two or three dozen toss-up seats that will decide control of the House of Representatives. This is especially the case with the tidal wave of Republican Super PAC money covering a larger portion of the horizon every day.

Nothing pisses me off more than reading the post-election stories of how candidates or fundraising operations sat on a shit-ton of cash when it could have been spent in competitive districts.

It's not there yet, but this election could tilt heavily towards Democrats.  Let's not waste the opportunity.

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Poverty levels in America have risen. 

Though fresh data from the Census Bureau show that the number of Americans living in poverty edged higher in 2011, its latest American Community Survey also signals that after a Great Recession and a painfully slow recovery the U.S. economy may finally be bottoming out.

That, combined with Tom Zeller's piece in HuffingtonPost about the plight of rural minorities makes for some stark, depressing reading.  

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The finest two minutes and five seconds of FOX News you'll ever see.

Three words for you: hand roasted marshmallows.

Exactly what it sounds like.  

That is all.

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...And that's not to say FOX and Drudge and the gang aren't trying.  They are.

It's just not working out very well for them.

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An update on the kiddos.

Via my mother, here is everything you need to know about toddlers.  Well, not everything, but I'm having a hard time, out of 19 things, finding one that is not true.  

Here's the thing about having young children I didn't know or didn't expect: that life would be so profoundly different from life without kids -- life before -- that I would literally not remember what I did before I had children.  What did I do with all that time?  Could I really have wasted it watching TV and playing video games?  Apparently, the tragic answer is "yes."

Emmy and Finn are awesome.  Finn is big, healthy and a very happy baby.  His favorite past-time is watching whatever his sister is doing at that exact moment.  He smiles and laughs at whatever she does.  And I think he's starting to get a little frustrated that he can't fully participate yet.

Emeline, of course, is all too willing to ham it up for her brother.  She is a great big sister, and a lot fun in her own right.  

That Jezebel link is kind of right.  My thing with having a toddler is it's alternately ecstasy and joy interrupted by moments of extreme terror and undiluted frustration.  She is a genuinely sweet little girl.  She is as caring a young person as I've ever seen.  Emeline is a happy girl, and she wants you to be happy, too.

The flip side is, she's two and-a-half.  She's going to have her moments.  I walk around the corner, and she's hanging off the side of the couch, ready to fall directly onto her head.  I mean, you can't describe that kind of horror.  She has taken to testing her limits, too, running away from me and her mommy and not stopping when we scream "STOP!"  It's scary as hell when she's headed towards the road, and more than once I've broken out some of my old moves from high school track (which I pay for later, thanks to an out-of-shape forty-one year-old body).  

The kids are great and life is very good.

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It's almost Friday.