by Benjamin J. Kirby
I've been home for two days, now. Emmy has been sick -- fever, stuffy nose. I think she's probably on the road to feeling better, but let me tell you: it's hard with Finn -- who is not sick, knock on wood -- and with her when she is sick. You don't like seeing your kids sick, sure. But it's just hard, because she doesn't want to do much, which is not like her, but she still needs attention.
Finn is at an age -- ten months, day after tomorrow -- where he needs a lot of attention himself.
So don't get me wrong: there are a lot of folks out there who have it a lot harder than I do. Single moms, single dads. Grandmothers and grandfathers who've already gone to that rodeo once before and are at it again for whatever reasons. I'm under no illusions that I have it tough, being with my kids for two days at home.
But what it means is I'm going to have stuff piled up at the office when I go in. It means a lot of catch-up.
And I won't care one little bit if Emmy is feeling better.
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So a sequester prediction, based on absolutely nothing whatsoever.
It'll happen. Tomorrow will come and go, and I'm pretty sure someone will say the sky is falling. They'll only be a little bit wrong.
These cuts are bad news, folks, and it won't take long at all for them to be felt. I've already done my post on what'll get cut if it happens. It really is bad news, gang.
The good news is, I think it'll end up a bit like the debt ceiling deal. The cuts go through and stuff starts getting shut down. Federal employees get furloughed and people start raising hell in their Congressional districts.
You'll end up with something eerily similar to the debt ceiling fight, where Speaker Boehner will need to cobble together a coalition with the reasonable Republicans in the House, and let the tea party freaks, well, freak out. Some of them have already called for his head if he allows a revenue increase and more spending (which is, of course, what is actually required as we ease out of this recession).
I suspect the worst of the cuts will get fixed legislatively, maybe through a series of bills that restore the cuts and alternately cut even deeper in other places to make up the difference or -- God help John Boehner -- raise taxes.
In the end, the political fight will be uglier than the actual band-aid(s) covering the self-inflicted sequester idiocy.
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I'm burying this prediction, because it'll probably embarrass me later (or sooner). And no, I haven't been drinking.
Charlie Crist will not run for Governor of the State of Florida.
Boom, there. I said it. God, I feel a whole lot better.
I know what you're thinking: Man, that Kirby's an idiot. Sure, maybe. That prediction is based on nothing more than a gut feeling.
My case, in short, is that I think Charlie is going to wimp out. Look, hospital grifter Governor Rick Scott may be the most unpopular governor in the country, but that doesn't mean he can't access a mountain of money to fend off his opponents.
Charlie is a lot of things, but stupid is not one of them. He knows that it'll be a huge fight -- and an ugly, protracted one at that -- if he runs against the guy who succeeded him in the Governor's Mansion. I'm not saying Charlie always goes for the easy win, but...
Well. Yes, I am.
He's not going to do it, folks. Watch and see.
And while I'm driving straight over the cliff, let me say that I don't think Alex Sink will run, either. I think she is smart enough to come to a similar conclusion as Charlie, but I also think she lost her best political advisor when Mr. McBride, her husband, died. I just don't think she has the fight.
Go ahead and pre-heat the oven for whatever it takes to cook crow. I like mine with lots of Carolina barbecue sauce.
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Alright, now for a much safer prediction: The Pinellas County Commission seat currently occupied by Commissioner Susan Latvala will not go to former Republican State Representative Peter Nehr, who had filed to run against her. Ruh-roh:
Days after he lost his bid for re-election last fall, former Rep. Peter Nehr of Palm Harbor used leftover campaign money to pay his live-in girlfriend $22,000 for "consulting," records show.
Nehr made three post-election payments to girlfriend Kim Marie, a 47-year-old acupuncturist, listing them as "consulting, editing and fundraising" expenses on his final campaign expenditure report.
The worst part here isn't that he paid her -- paying off his live-in girlfriend is not actually illegal, wouldn't you know it, and if you're only just now realizing that lax campaign financing is a problem, you really haven't been paying attention -- it is that he apparently made up a fictitious address in the financial disclosure report. I'm no lawyer, but isn't it a crime to file false reports to the state?
Anyway, if this guy gets elected to anything else, ever, we all get what we deserve.
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It's almost Friday.
Emmy was rockin' out to this earlier. For three, she is a very good dancer. And has great taste in music.