The Spencerian

The Nail in the Coffin: the Romney Legacy Goes Kaput

by Benjamin J. Kirby

I found this to be a horrible election, and I'm glad it's over.  Still, I took note of the Boston Globe post-mortem on the Romney Campaign.  There are some real gems, there -- and it ought to be mandatory reading for any Republican with political aspirations.

...a reconstruction by the Globe of how the campaign unfolded shows that Romney’s problems went deeper than is widely understood. His campaign made a series of costly financial, strategic, and political mistakes that, in retrospect, all but assured the candidate’s defeat, given the revolutionary turnout tactics and tactical smarts of President Obama’s operation.

And then it gets good.

Really good.

Rich Beeson, the Romney political director who co­authored the now-discredited Ohio memo, said that only after the election did he realize what Obama was doing with so much manpower on the ground. Obama had more than 3,000 paid workers nationwide, compared with 500 for Romney, and hundreds of thousands of volunteers.

“Now I know what they were doing with all the staffs and ­offices,” Beeson said. “They were literally creating a one-to-one contact with voters,” something that Romney did not have the staff to match.

Rich Beeson ought to never be allowed within five-hundred yards of a political campaign of any sort ever again.  

As Kos at DailyKos asked, just what in the hell did he think they were doing with "all the staffs and offices"?

There's a lot of examination in the piece about whether the Romney Campaign should have focused more on defining Romney as a great guy instead of attacking Obama.  It's a worthwhile discussion, I guess -- but I think the Romney people will likely miss the point.

Ann Romney, who had long pushed for more focus on her husband’s personal story, made her point directly in a convention video: “If you really want to know how a person will operate, look at how they’ve lived their life.”

The problem was, Mitt Romney was actually a douchebag.  

He was the punk bully in high school who tortured other students.

Later, he was the sole author of a New York Times editorial entitled "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt".  

He was the candidate who said we were pulling out of Iraq "too quickly."

He was the candidate with a car elevator in one of his many houses.  

He was the candidate who didn't release his tax returns, because none of your goddam business, okay!  He was the candidate of dressage horses -- which we weren't supposed to make fun of, because the horse was therapy for his wife, Ann, who has MS... except when the horse wasn't dancing in the Olympics.  He was the candidate of Bain Capital, shutting down business to make a buck for himself.  And speaking of Ann: it was her "you people" gaffe that helped further define this campaign of complete, unrepentant assholes. 

And if you want to talk about complete, unrepentant assholes, then the Globe piece gets even better.

While candidates often try to portray themselves as reluctant, Tagg insisted his father’s stance was genuine.

“He wanted to be president less than anyone I’ve met in my life. He had no desire to . . . run,” said Tagg, who worked with his mother, Ann, to persuade his father to seek the presidency. “If he could have found someone else to take his place . . . he would have been ecstatic to step aside. He is a very private person who loves his family deeply and wants to be with them, but he has deep faith in God and he loves his country, but he doesn’t love the attention.”

This is the same Tagg Romney -- abject coward -- who said he wanted to "take a swing" at the President of the United States (after, interestingly, a debate in which the issue of gun control came up and Mitt screwed it up something awful). 

This may well be the worst spin attempt I've ever seen in more than twenty years of watching politics.  He wanted to be president less than anyone I've met in my life.  

Uh-huh.  Then how come the guy spent the last five running for it?  Mitt Romney's campaign for the presidency began in 2007 when he lost the primary in '08 to John McCain. 

As I recall, there was a protracted and painful GOP primary in which there were, at one point, half a dozen or more wanna-be drivers of the Republican Clown Car careening towards oblivion.  Michele Bachmann?  Rick Perry?  Rick Santorum?  Newt Gingrich?  Herman Cain?  Ron Paul?  Jon Huntsman?  

What's the matter, Tagg -- you didn't get to meet any of those people?  Because I'm pretty sure every damn one of them wanted to be president.

Stop talking, Tagg.  You're doing more harm than good.  

Republicans have a lot of work to do, and the ugly autopsy of Romney's campaign is just the start.  Will they get it together in four years?  Who knows.  Too early to say.

Right now, the very best we can hope for is a better election in 2016.

The Boehner-pocalypse: Bust or Legit?

by Benjamin J. Kirby

John Stanton, the political editor at BuzzFeed, says that House Speaker John Boehner is going to be just fine, even after the disastrous and epic failure of his "Plan B" to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff.  Stanton's reasons seem sound:

First, legislative coups are risky, and the fiscal cliff talks are still playing out. Meanwhile, Boehner is personally popular. The opposition has no clear leader.

But perhaps most important of all, it's not clear that it's in the interest of the conservative Republicans leading talk of the coup to dive into the messy business of making deals with a Democratic president and Senate, or assuming responsibility for the 2014 midterm elections.

But I think Stanton -- who is a great Washington character and a good political journalist with a solid pedigree -- is, caught up in the D.C. echo chamber, failing to see what might be a larger picture.  

Listen to Republican Congressman Steve LaTourette of Ohio on NPR yesterday, talking with host Melissa Block:

BLOCK: Well, do you expect that you're going to have the chance to vote on a deal to avert the fiscal cliff or not?

LATOURETTE: I, you know, I really don't know. I would say that it's too fresh from last night's really shocking turn of events. And, you know, this is a season of miracles. So maybe people will be inspired by the spirit of the season and come back with a fresh attitude. But I'm pessimistic at this point. I mean, I would say these people on both sides that have done the calculation and think that going over the cliff is better than reaching a deal.

That doesn't sound like a vote of confidence to me -- and LaTourette is ostensibly on Boehner's side.  He said this earlier in the interview:

BLOCK: How many votes short did Plan B fall, do you know?

LATOURETTE: No, I don't know. And, you know, that'll die with the leaders. But my sense is that if you've watched this Congress, there's been 40, 48, 50 Republican House members that no matter how they try to accommodate them, they wouldn't be accommodated.

40, 50 Republicans who "wouldn't be accommodated".  I know that even 50 Republicans in the House isn't enough to mount any kind of serious challenge to Boehner's Speakership... or is it?

If Boehner stalwarts like LaTourette are ambivalent at best, why not?  

But the truth is, I don't think this is about a challenged Speakership of the House of Representatives (though that is a part of it).  I think this is about a fracture -- a fissure -- that is growing within the heart of the GOP.  It is about the split in the Republican Party.

It seems most political reporters are all too happy to take a break from thinking about Election 2012.  I don't blame them. 

But we can't forget that Republicans had a protracted primary fight -- a free-for-all conflagration between ultra-conservatives like Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann and the waffle-ey, flip-flop-ey ultimate nominee, Mitt Romney.  They then proceeded to nominate the least popular guy in the race, mostly because he had the most money.  

Speaking of money, bitter old billionaires dropped tons of cash on outfits like Karl Rove's Crossroads GPS to air wall-to-wall negative ads against President Obama.  It was a losing bet.  And one of the few guys from the George W. Bush Administration of any prominence who was looking to elevate himself this time around, has egg on his face, to say the least.

On top of the humiliating loss for Romney (and his big-money backers funneling their money through Rove), tea party favorites got shellacked at the polls.  Here in Florida, Allen West -- one of those "40, 48, 50 Republican House Members" that "wouldn't be accommodated" -- got beat.  He wasn't the only one.

Republicans came to the fiscal cliff table at a disadvantage.  The American people don't want to see programs like Social Security and Medicare cut.  More to the point, they know those programs aren't the problem.  Two protracted wars on top of tax cuts for the wealthy are.  In a not so funny way, the problems tea party conservatives -- hell, Republicans in general -- are the fault of George W. Bush.  

I have been wondering about the breakup of the GOP for some time, now.  I think we may be witnessing it unfurl before us, albeit slowly.

There are Republicans who actually want to govern.  There are Republicans -- "40, 48, 50" to start -- who don't give a shit about anything except power.  

What the fiscal cliff really represents is the inability of those two sides of the party to live together any longer.

Look, anyone who smokes cheap cigarettes, lunches on beer and burgers at the Tune Inn, and has prominent forearm tattoos is more than okay with me. But there is a sort of black hole for creative thinking in Washington, D.C. -- trust me, I know.  Most equations are binary, and that's the way operatives of all stripes -- politicians, staffers, reporters -- like it.  Republicans are up, Democrats must be down.  Democrats do X, Republicans must, in turn, do Y.  

If anyone might be able to see through that false dichotomy, it's a guy like Stanton.  We'll see if he can do it.  If Republicans keep going this way, he -- and everyone else in D.C. -- may not have a choice. 

 

John Stanton. Photograph by Andrew Popp

 

A Confederacy of Dunces: Elections Are Not War

by Benjamin J. Kirby

It's been a long, a long time coming
But I know a change gonna come, oh yes it will

Sam Cooke, A Change is Gonna Come

I wanted to feel better for longer after this election.  Why couldn't that happen?  Was that really asking so much?  Was it too much to ask for a few more moments, a few days more, to bask in the joy of knowing that we'd re-elected a Democratic President after eight miserable years enduring the vagaries of the George W. Bush Administration?  Was it so much to ask that we breathe a little easier for a few uninterrupted moments knowing that President Obama's signal achievement -- health care reform -- having survived the gauntlet of an ostensibly hostile Judiciary, will now reside safely as a part of his rich legacy? 

I felt good yesterday -- really good.  Tired, but good.

Now I'm just tired.  

Here's an image floating around Facebook (click to embiggen):

Really?

Do you know how awful a person you have to be to look at the election map from two days ago and think Well hell, that looks just like a map of slave states and free states before the Civil War!

Conflating a pre-Civil War map with an election map from today is just... awful.  The implication, one supposes, is that those in the north and the west whose states had a majority vote for President Obama's re-election are... I don't know, anti-slavery?  Not racist?  

I watched a lot of this election, and there were some awful things said and some truly horrible candidates here in the south, including one who called slavery a "blessing in disguise" and one who advocated the execution of children.  Yes, students at the University of Mississippi rioted after Obama was re-elected. 

And still, the idea that we can be divided by simple geographic boundaries is a ridiculous oversimplification, and not at all what 2012 (or 2008) was about.

I'd remind whoever put that map together that Obama won Virginia, North Carolina as well as Florida in 2008.  This time around, he won Virginia again, and is on-track to win Florida again as well.

And speaking of Florida, we rejected several awful state constitutional amendments, one of which would have...

"...repealed the 127-year-old Blaine Amendment, which (in theory) banned the state from giving money to religious institutions. In truth, the state has long contracted with religious charities to house the poor, educate the illiterate and feed the hungry."

Another would have embeded a rejection of health care reform in our State Constitution.  That one failed as well.

While we're looking at maps, here's one for which I harbor a particular fondness:

I started working on campaigns in 1992, in downtown Little Rock, Arkansas -- where I grew up -- on the Clinton/Gore Campaign.  That map is the Election Day result.

Arkansas.  Louisiana.  Georgia.  Tennessee.  Kentucky.  Missouri.  West Virginia.

All "slave states."   

I hate this kind of stuff.  I hate it because how do you explain it to your two and-a-half year-old daughter, who is showing some interest in geography, and who was born in St. Petersburg, Florida, another "slave state"?  What is the conflation of these two maps supposed to signal?  Sorry 'bout your Grandmommy and Grandaddy, kiddo -- up there in Arkansas, they live in slave state.

Finally, this kind of stereotyping of the south is pedestrian.  It's small.  And it's unfair.

This can't possibly be how it works.  

By the way, I'd encourage you to look at the county-by-county breakdown at the Washington Post.  Sure.  Blue in the midwest as well, around Chicago, Wisconsin, Minnesota.  Lots of blue in the northeastern states, as you'd expect.  Blue in Miami, and here in Pinellas and Hillsborough, though, too.  

And the Texas border.

And a large swath in Alabama, all the way up through Sumter, South Carolina, into North Carolina, the state where I was born.

And the Missisippi Delta, some of the poorest counties in the land.  

Those lonesome blue counties snake a path right up the Mississippi River, run all the way to Tate County -- damn near the Tennessee border -- before it hits red again.  They cross the mighty river into places like Chicot County and Desha County in the southeast corner of Arkansas.  I've campaigned in those small, unbearably poor counties.  

They are desolate and they are beautiful and often unspeakably lonely.  And one day, when I am driving my children up Highway 65, past the rice fields and dried-up ponds, alongside the winding Mississippi River, I will tell them that I was there.  I will tell them about the old white pick-up I drove.  I will tell them of the good people I met.  I will tell them I planted yard signs.  I will tell them that I asked my fellow Arkansans to vote for a Democrat.  

I will tell them that this is America.

Great Day in the Morning

by Benjamin J. Kirby

"Great day in the morning!" 

My Uncle Stell used to say that whenever he heard good news.  He's been gone for a long time, now, since I was just a kid, but I loved him with all my heart, unconditionally, and I can still hear him say those words sometimes, just like he's sitting right next to me.  I remembering loving that phrase, even as a boy.  So hopeful, so optimistic.  

I probably don't say it enough now.

The short version is: good night for Democrats.  It was obviously a good night for President Obama, and if I'd called Florida for him -- it's looking like he will win it, narrowly -- then maybe Peter Schorsch would be mentioning me right up there with the prescient gang at the Political Hurricane (a must-read Florida political blog).  [As it stands right now, Florida is still too close to call.  If it happens to fall to Romney, then I'll actually have pegged the outcome exactly.]   

There is a lot of work to do.  To start, our economy is still in recovery mode.  There is still a disaster area in and around New York and New Jersey to clean up.  There are still a tangle of issues overseas, too.

I think we'll make great progress in the next four years.

I'm hopeful.

As for the national political scene here at home, I expect Republicans -- responsible Republicans -- to do a little soul searching.  Maybe this is a bit much for the day after Election Day, but I'd venture to guess this could be the end of the conventional GOP as we know it.  Increasingly, there are simply two parties occupying one "big tent" -- and the tent can't hold them both anymore.  On one side are the fiscal conservatives who care a little less about some of the divisive social issues -- which also took a thrashing this election -- and on the other side are -- there's just no other word for them -- extremists.

It seems to me that as long as the extremists -- those who would deny a woman's right to choose what to do with her own body, those who would deny gay people the same rights they enjoy, those who think the answer to escalating crime is simply more guns -- drive the GOP primary process, you won't get to a united message or party, much less a winning candidate for President.

We'll see.  I thought something similar in '08, and look how well that worked out.

Most of that is a post for another time and maybe another place.

For now, it's a great day in the morning.

An Open Letter to Emeline and Finnegan on Election Day 2012

by Benjamin J. Kirby

All I want is to see you smile,
If it takes just a little while

-- Fleetwood Mac, Don't Stop (Thinking About Tomorrow).

Dear Emmy & Finn -- 

As it happens, I have recently had occasion to engage your Grandmommy and your Uncle Adam in a brief conversation around our ancestry and family history.  Allow me to offer you a pre-emptive apology: I am not one for knowing a great deal of our family history, certainly not dating very far back.

Finn, I can tell you that your middle name -- Fawkes -- is for Guy Fawkes, of whom you are a direct descendant on your mother's side.

Emeline, I can tell you that you are named after your great-grandmother on my side, Margaret Emeline Fulk (she didn't like "Margaret" and went by Peg) -- your Grandmommy's mother -- was married to Forrest Fulk, the man who inspired the name of this very blog.    

Beyond that, I am much better at recounting stories only a generation or two away than with connecting our lives to people and places that seem very ancient to me.  I recognize this for the fault that it surely is, and I hope you do not hold it against me.

The story I'd like to tell you today is about your other great-grandfather on my side, my father's father.  His name was Glen Kirby, and he grew up in an extraordinary time in America.  

He grew up poor, profoundly poor -- poor in a way I could never fathom and I hope you will never have to.  An early lesson of this story: he raised his little sister from the time he was a very young boy.  Your mother and I love you very much.  We will move heaven and earth to try and always be here for you -- but if for some horrible reason we cannot, you will take care of one another.  I know you will do this, because, well... I just know.

His father was largely absent from his life, and so he had to go to work early in order to provide for his sister and himself and his mother.  This is not a lesson about ambition.  It is about grave necessity.

This story takes place around the time of the Great Depression, an unspeakably difficult time in our country's history.  We are going through a similar protracted recession now.  It's really another Great Depression, only this time many more of us have access to more things and more information.  It's the Great Depression with Facebook.  

Glen didn't have Facebook in the early 1930s.  He didn't have much of anything.

And so when he wasn't hunting -- not for fun; for food to eat -- he was looking for work.  Like today, work was hard to come by.

Finally, he got frustrated looking for work, and stopped at a bicycle store and repair shop.  There was no "help wanted" sign in the window.  

He walked in and asked the man behind the counter if he had any work.

The man, mildly annoyed, said, No, go away, kid.

He did.  But he came back the next day.  Why did he come back to the same place?  Who knows.  But he did.

And when he asked the man if he had any work, the man, mildly more annoyed, said, No, hit the road, kid.

He did.  But he came back again.

And when he asked the man if there was any work, the man offered some ugly words and told him to get out.

He did.  

And he came back one more time.  

This time, when he walked into the bicycle store, he stopped and grabbed the broom leaning in the doorway.

The man behind the counter said, "I thought I told you, kid, I don't have any money to give you a job."

Sweeping the dusty floor, Glen looked at the man and said, "Mister, I don't need your money.  But I need to work." And he went back to sweeping the floor.  

Your great-grandfather came back to the bike shop again and again.  He cleaned the floors.  He helped out around the shop.  And finally -- after a few weeks -- the proprietor of the bicycle shop gave him a paying job fixing and selling bikes.

Funny thing is, his perseverance is not the best part of the story.

Glen went on to start his own business.  He was one of the most respected air conditioning men in central Arkansas.  

Only in this great country can you succeed, as President Obama reminded us, "because of our individual initiative, but also because we do things together."  Your Grand-daddy took over that business and ran it for years.  I have many more stories about working with him that he will probably tell a whole lot better than I ever will.  You should ask him about that some time.

And so on this Election Day, that is what I want for you.  A country that offers you a wide enough table to sew together your own great stories.  A country that's rich enough in opportunities for you to find them -- but not so rich they fall into your lap (finding the opportunity is what makes the good story).  

So don't take those opportunities -- or those stories -- for granted.  It's Election Day in America, a special day.  A day we take very seriously in our family -- because it's about more than just picking our next leaders.  

It's about opportunities -- opportunities for you.  And if we make the right choices -- if we're even just a little bit lucky -- we'll have some great stories to tell.

I can't wait to hear yours.

Love,

Daddy

Feels Like the First Time... Well, Not Really

by Laura Jane Cohen

Four years ago today was one of the most nerve-racking of my life. We had worked so hard. Hundreds of phone calls, hours and hours knocking on doors with two kids in a jog stroller in tow, yard signs, bumper stickers, it seemed never ending. And then it was over. All the campaigning, the hoping, the praying, the wishing. There was nothing left to do, but wait. Wait and see what choice our country would make.

I still remember that night. I made Michelle Obama’s apple brown betty and Uncle Larry and Uncle Barry came over to watch the results roll in. We were all nervous. There was so much to lose. The kids paraded around in their Obama shirts until bedtime. A sleepy Sylvia asked “Did our guy win?”. “I don’t know yet, baby.” “I hope he does.” “I know you do, honey. Me, too.”

Every time they called a state for Obama, Larry, Barry, Seth, and I cheered. When they called Virginia, Larry (who had also logged hundreds of volunteer hours for the campaign) and I teared up. We jumped off the couch and hugged. “We did it!” So many hours. So much work. So much hope. It was an incredible experience.

As a new American citizen, it was Seth’s first election. He was elated. “I can’t believe he won!” “You know, they don’t all go like that” I reminded him. “I know, but this feels pretty great.”

After we finally went to bed that night, I wrote this letter to the kids:

Dear Sylvia and Lucas-

Tonight we elected a new president.

What seems like a long time ago, you guys and Daddy and I started knocking on complete strangers’ doors to tell them why we believed in a young, black, senator, with a funny name, born a half a world away, and raised by a single mom. We talked to them about change and about our hope for the future. For your future.

Tonight feels like the end of a very long race. But less like the end than the beginning of something good. Tonight, my darlings, I am thinking of you. You each came into the world in a scary way. Both of you not breathing, not sure whether to enter this life, or remain where you came from. Since that moment, your dad and I have worked every day to make sure that you made the right choice. That this life would be worth it. We have tried to make the world a better place for you.

Tonight, I sit here in amazement. Did this really happen? Did our country actually make the same choice the two of you did? To take a chance on this life?

I find myself thinking of your great-great grandparents. The choice their families made to pack everything they owned, leave everything they knew, and cross an ocean, just for the mere chance that life might be better here. I always wondered why they took such a chance when so many did not. Once I had you two, I had my answer. They hoped, like Daddy and I do, that life might be better for the next generation. They had hope.

Tonight, I feel a little like you two and your great-great grandparents. On the verge of a journey where I cannot see the coastline, but I know it is out there, and I have hope that it will be better than where we came from.

The future lies with you two. You will be the judges of our journey. I hope tonight was the first step in giving you the future you both deserve.

I love you both so very much-
Mommy

Four years later, it doesn’t quite feel the same. To say that these last four years have been more difficult than I imagined doesn’t begin to cover it. At times I have fallen off the bandwagon. At times I have lost my faith.

But today, I still believe. I still believe that we are on the journey, the path to something better. I still can see the coastline, but I know it is out there. I have faith.

And so, like four years ago, I am left with nothing to do but wait to see who this country will chose.

And like four years ago, I still have hope.

cross-posted at mommy is a 4 letter word

Everything's Wonderful and Nothing Hurts

by Benjamin J. Kirby

Though I have to give the Republican "professional political analysts" like George Will, Michael Barone, and Peggy Noonan (and others) credit for sticking to the script, there are some very early signs the wheels are finally coming of the Romney wagon.  It's about damn time:

Mitt Romney’s lost the election. His own campaign team is starting to admit that to the world. Perhaps  more importantly,  they’re starting to admit it to themselves.

Matt and I will have predictions up later this evening, so be sure to check back for that.  

I just wanted to take a minute to say thank you.  Thanks for continuing to follow along in what has been a genuinely gnarly election year.  This has been an awful campaign, and I don't blame you if you gave up somewhere along the way.  I nearly did, many times.

I didn't ever say this on the blog, but I sort of figured this to be a tough year early on.  Look, when they're booing soldiers and cheering executions in the Republican clown car Primary, it's going to be an awful campaign.  And these weren't anomalies -- they were campaign touchstones.  The GOP Convention featured a confusing disruption by Ron Paul supporters, which came inconveniently at a time when a speaker from Puerto Rico was taking the stage.  The Convention was further distracted by the vile acts of lone racists -- later ejected. 

The GOP Primary itself -- remember those crazy days? -- was itself what the kids call a hot mess.  It wasn't that long ago the name "Michele Bachmann" was paired in the same sentence with the words "front-runner".  It is simply impossible for me to conjure the hypothetical and imagine the state of the race today had Congresswoman Bachmann won the nomination.  And I'm a creative guy.  

An actual insane person named Herman Cain won the Florida Straw Poll.

Rick Perry -- another contender -- did us the courtesy of imploding entirely in public.  

Rick Santorum, yet another one-time front-runner, couldn't even contain the racism.

Of course the stage was set for disaster.  

I'll be glad when the whole thing is over -- and we can celebrate four more years of President Obama.

Finally, I just want to thank Matt Spence for the idea for Into the Echo Chamber.  I haven't always agreed with him, but it's been a lot of fun.

Check in soon for our prediction edition.

Thanks for reading.

From Chicago: Election Prediction Teaser

by Benjamin J. Kirby

I'm here in Chicago, and just wanted to check in before we got started with our NAPC Board Meeting.  

Matt and I are going to have some election predictions, posted Monday -- so watch for that.  

I can give you some hints, though -- at least on my end.  I am going to predict an Obama win.  I am going to predict that he does beter in the Electoral College and with the popular vote that conventional wisdom would have you believe.  

Those two things shouldn't really surprise you, but via Balloon-Juice, I came across an excellent reason why I think I'll be right:

Don't laught too hard.  These folks have gotten Mitt Romney closer to the White House than anyone ever could have thought possible.  

Nonetheless, this is the Romney base: folks so anti-Obama they've closed their minds to reason and logic.  Obama's father was a Muslim and an atheist and a Communist?  Really?  

Matt and I have had what I think is a remarkable conversation over the last several weeks about politics and policy and this campaign.  Some of the stuff we have covered is pretty deep.  We disagree on a good bit of it.

But deep-level policy is not where most people are in this election, and Matt and I are in agreement in lamenting that sad fact.  

I've been involved in politics and policy and government for what sometimes feels like a very, very long time.  All of it is in a state of flux, a profound state of change.  

But here's something that never changes, or at least hasn't changed that I can see: candidates need to be for something.  It's simply not enough to run against an incumbent no matter how awful they may be, no matter how much you may disagree with them.

My first campaign -- the Clinton/Gore Campaign of 1992 -- is a great example.  Bill Clinton didn't so much run against George H.W. Bush as for a new kind of economic worldview.  It worked.  And when Bob Dole ran against Clinton in 1996, he was -- I think -- talked into running as the anti-Clinton.  We saw how well that worked.  

Gore was in an funny box, because he tried to run as Not Clinton and Not Bush.  Bush was a terrible enough candidate that only a handful of votes and a truly awful Supreme Court decision made him president.

Mitt Romney has run for nothing, and the poor folks in that video are a testament to that fact.  Mitt Romney has no core, he has no values -- he has no plan for America, except to make life a little better for rich people.   

We'll see how things go here in a few days, and I'll try to check back in soon -- and don't forget to look for our predictions on Monday!

Polling: It Held Me Spellbound

by Benjamin J. Kirby

Happy Halloween.

Short post tonight, because I have a lot of candy to gorge myself on to hand out to trick-or-treaters.  

I think when the story of this election gets written, someone smarter than me should take note that much of it was almost assuredly driven by quasi-corrupt, partisan pollsters (like the creeps I wrote about the other day).  They're not polling people to glean valuable data and discern trends and likely outcomes in important swing-states -- they're putting together fodder for the idiots at Fox News to blather on about.  

And I think once that's made clear, people are going to be moderately outraged (only moderately, because I think more than anything, people are burned out on this stuff).

So there's been some recent obnoxiousness about the work Nate Silver does at Five Thirty Eight, which has Obama with a 77.4% chance of winning right now.  Silver uses science and math -- the stuff which President Clinton likes so much -- to show these trends and predict fairly accurate outcomes (he was something like one state off last time around).

This level of certainty drives the regular punditocracy insane with rage.  After all, how can you report on a NECK AND NECK RACE!!! when President Obama has a seventy-seven percenet chance of winning re-election? 

How is it, by the way, a numbers nerd like Silver has earned the wrath of so many in the political talking head universe?  After all, it can't just be because the guy is making some prediction -- essentially doing his job.  

I think it's because he's written a book, The Signal and the Noise, which I have not read but will.  It's about how predictive models work... and don't work.  

The first thing that popped into my head was the magician who shows how the trick is done.  Other magicians hate that guy.  After all, what's the appeal of magic if you know there's a string, or a trap-door, or whatever.

Anyway, I have a feeling Silver will be pretty close to right again this time around.  If not, that'd be pretty scary...

Stay safe tonight and watch out for the ghouls, goblins and witches.

The Staged Events & You Can Help Sandy Victims

by Benjamin J. Kirby

I've been in the communications business a long time.  I have been involved in campaigns and elections for a long time, too.  

Both of those things rely on your instinct to know when to take advantage of the moment -- the circumstances of which you often don't control.

But for every time you execute the skill and craft successfully around an opportunity, nearly as many times you need to know when to either do it right, or back off.

Everyone admitted at the outset that Hurricane Sandy and the awful aftermath she left behind would put Team Romney in a bit of a bind.  He couldn't campaign.  But everyone knows he couldn't stop campaigning, either.  

So how to look like a leader in a tough moment for America?  

Personally, I thought the opportunity for Romney was to sit in a Romney Campaign call center in Boston and order everyone making phone calls for campaign cash to turn around and spend the week making calls for monetary donations to the Red Cross.   

He didn't do that.  In fact, what he did was exactly the wrong thing to do: he did a campaign photo-op.

Buzzfeed -- who it must be noted, has been the breakout Internet star of this campaign -- has a detailed piece on how the event didn't quite go as planned for Romney:

The plan was for supporters to bring hurricane relief supplies to the event, and then deliver the bags of canned goods, packages of diapers, and cases of water bottles to the candidate, who would be perched behind a table along with a slew of volunteers and his Ohio right-hand man, Senator Rob Portman. To complete the project and photo-op, Romney would lead his crew in carrying the goods out of the gymnasium and into the Penske rental truck parked outside.

But the last-minute nature of the call for donations left some in the campaign concerned that they would end up with an empty truck. So the night before the event, campaign aides went to a local Wal Mart and spent $5,000 on granola bars, canned food, and diapers to put on display while they waited for donations to come in, according to one staffer. (The campaign confirmed that it "did donate supplies to the relief effort," but would not specify how much it spent.)

Jed Lewison at DailyKos explains why stuff isn't the best thing to donate at a time like this:

It makes for a nice visual unless you realize that it was entirely staged to support Mitt Romney's personal political ambitions. And in case you have any remaining doubts, keep in mind that the Red Cross doesn't even want the stuff that Romney was urging people to donate:

 Red Cross tells us grateful for Romney donation but prefer people send money or donate blood dont collect goods NOT best way to help #Sandy
— @mitchellreports via web

The problem is simply logistics: in the midst of a disaster like Hurricane Sandy, the last thing the Red Cross wants is to sort through a hodge podge of donations and figure out where things should go. But cash donations don't look as good on camera, so Romney asked for stuff that he thought would be more photogenic, even though it wasn't the best way to help the victims of Hurricane Sandy—because this event was about him, not about them.

This is backed up by the Red Cross themselves:

Unfortunately, due to logistical constraints the Red Cross does not accept or solicit individual donations or collections of items. Items such as collected food, used clothing and shoes must be sorted, cleaned, repackaged and transported which impedes the valuable resources of money, time, and personnel.

The Red Cross does accept bulk quantities of product and services when these items meet our service delivery needs. These donations typically come from manufacturers, suppliers, and/or distributors that can package the items in bulk, palletize them and transport them directly to Red Cross sites. Financial contributions allow the Red Cross to purchase exactly what is needed for a disaster relief operation. Monetary donations also enable the Red Cross to purchase relief supplies close to the disaster site which avoids delays and transportation costs in getting basic necessities to disaster victims. Because the affected community has generally experienced significant economic loss, purchasing relief supplies in or close to the disaster site also helps to stimulate the weakened local economy.

Problem is, the Romney Campaign -- rightly -- doesn't think Mitt stroking a check to the Red Cross is much of a photo-op.  

It gets worse, of course. 

Romney's VP selection, Congressman Paul Ryan -- who has already had his brush with photo-ops gone wrong -- couldn't get to a "hurricane relief" event fast enough, and so workers were ordered to slow down their work until he got there... with the cameras in tow:

In Hudson, the packing was proceeding too quickly, and the supporters wearing red "Team Wisconsin" t-shirts were given the order to slow down and then to stop to be sure there were still goods to be packed when Ryan entered.

One by one the boxes were filled and loaded into a waiting U-Haul, and then they stopped to wait for the candidate.

This campaign has been cynical and awful and that cynicism and awfulness has spread like a fungus from one side -- the craven, opportunistic Romney/Ryan side.  

Look, at this late date, none of what anyone says about this will likely change any minds.  I'm just surprised the Romney/Ryan folks have been this sloppy about the whole thing.  It is awful and depressing.

But not as awful and depressing as what has happened to so many folks in New Jersey, New York and the other states where Sandy had a deep impact.  

Here's how you can help the victims of Hurricane Sandy.

Florida: Staying All-In

by Benjamin J. Kirby

I haven't yet offered a full prediction on how I think things are going to go on Election Day.

Last time I did that -- in 2008 -- I got my ass kicked by the Jason Rothstein, a worthy adversary if ever there was one.

I made a lot of goofy predictions in '08 -- a mistake I'm pretty sure I'll make again.  But first, can I just ask you a general question on polling: what kind of reputable organization would pull out of Florida, North Carolina, and Virignia, claiming that "Obama can't win there"?  

Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos, whose polls are aggregated into mainstream averages to show where the presidential race stands in the swing states, said he’s finished polling in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia because President Obama has no shot of winning those states.

“I think in places like North Carolina, Virginia and Florida, we’ve already painted those red, we’re not polling any of those states again,” Paleologos said Tuesday night on Fox’s "The O’Reilly Factor." “We’re focusing on the remaining states.”

Wait... "The O'Reilly Factor"?  

Seriously?  That guy is still around?  

You know what?  Nevermind on the question...  I already know.

Not to lend this creep Paleologos any more creedence than he deserves, but you can kind of understand North Carolina, where Romney is breaking away pretty effectively.

But Virginia?  It's a statistical tie, with Obama trending up.

Florida?  I'm no statistician, but I see a small gap closing there, fast -- including an Obama lead in some new polls.

I don't know what Paleologos and his crew are tyring to drive by pulling out of states where it is literally neck and neck (yes, I do).  

That alone is reason enough for Team Obama to want to win Florida.

Momentum, Organization and the Impact of Sandy

by Benjamin J. Kirby

Hurricane Sandy is here, and it's pretty damn scary.

I'm more worried about all my old friends and neighbors in the Washington, D.C. area, as well as those in New York City, than I am about politics.  I hope everyone there stays safe and relatively dry.  

That being said, we have an election coming up in just over a week, and that's a pretty big deal, too. 

Aaron Blake at The Fix already has a quick run-down of political hot-spots which may (or may not) be affected by the "frankenstorm" -- basically: Philly, Boston (where Romney Headquarters are located), Virginia, North Carolina (along the coast particularly), and Ohio.  

On top of the weather-related issues to contend with -- will voters be able to get to the polls for early voting?  Will polling places and campaign field offices be able to operate without power? -- the financial markets will be closed again tomorrow.  I am not an economist so I don't know what the impact of having markets closed for a day or two really means.  

The best thing I've read on the election in a long time comes from Ryan Lizza at The New Yorker, entitled The Final Push (subscribers only link, sorry).  The bottom line is that campaigns are better than they've ever been at mobilizing voters -- that is to say, using scientific data, using what we know works to get voters to the polls:

The very best way to mobilize voters, they discovered, is through shame.  During the 2006 Michigan primary, they [scientists conducting a study on voter turnout] sent four pieces of campaign mail to more than three hundred thousand people urging them to vote.  One mailer was a simple appeal to the voter's civic duty.  The other three included such an appeal, coupled with either information about whether the recipients or their neighbors had voted in recent elections or a subtle warning that researchers would check to see if they voted in the next election.  The mailers with the shame-inducing information increased turnout by as much as eight points, an enormous jump.  

Shame, of course, coupled with on-the-ground, well put-together teams in places where person-to-person contact can make a difference.  Lizza visited Nevada, where...

Obama has twenty-six field offices in the state; Romney has twelve.

Indeed, Obama has something like a gajillion more field offices that Mitt Romney, except in Utah.  For some reason.

But it's awfully hard for a person to make voter contact when you're snowed in or flooded out.  

As a quick aside, I hope someone smart at the Obama campaign has figured out that they have the most field offices in Ohio, and many, many more in Pennsylvania, Virginia and North Carolina, and that if those could be utilized as places where folks could get help -- or at least serve as a starting point for that kind of thing -- than all the better.  For everyone.

Finally, I guess I'd have to generally agree with Howard Kurtz that this is mostly bad for Mitt Romney.  President Obama has already stopped campaigning -- taken off the "candidate" hat and put back on the Leader of the Free World hat (it's a proverbial hat, just FYI).  As Sandy blows through and causes damage, he'll be the guy in charge.  

Again, you hate to politicize it, but unless he screws it up like some presidents I could name, that looks Presidential.

Romney has little choice but to stop campaigning and hope that the power gets turned back on, fast.

I said last week there were a handful of states where I thought the momentum was going in favor of President Obama.  But there were a few states where that was not the case, notably Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Michigan.  

It may be more than just a tough storm impacting Mitt-mentum, though.  Team Romney has a new ad out that not only makes no sense, the lie in it about President Obama is particularly egregious.  It's hard to tell what the chattering freaks will be talking about more -- that, or Newt Gingrich (of all people) suggesting that with respect to recent comments by Republicans candidates for public office about rape, that we (actually, Obama Campaign staffer Stephanie Cutter) should just "get over it."

Well, let's let the political goofballs figure that all out.  

In the meantime, have some good thoughts for all our friends in the path of Sandy.  They're going to need it.

Is This a Joke?

by Benjamin J. Kirby

No, really: Donald Trump?  We spent a day paying attention to this?  A whole day?  That's a day of your life you're never getting back, America. 

Look, when you can no longer tell the difference between farce and the real thing, maybe it's time to give it up on the whole deal.

My sense is right now is, I'll be hanging out over here ready to have a conversation about politics and policy and campaigns when anybody else is ready.  This other crap doesn't deserve the goddam time of day.

Seriously, people, I'm getting fed up.

Oh, by the way, didn't Obama shut this guy down a few months ago?

The only thing overshadowing the Trump joke of the day was the infinitely more offensive comments by tea party Senate candidate Richard Mourdock saying, "And even when life begins in that horrible situation of rape, that it is something that God intended to happen.”

The only thing more horrifying than a guy running for Senate saying that is GOP Presidential nominee Mitt Romney sticking with him.

Honestly, this isn't politics anymore: it's something else, and I don't like it. 

I only wish that was the first time the idea of "legitimate rape" were introduced in this election. 

If you're a Republican, the political events of this past year should cause you a great deal of humiliation, embarrassment, and general bad feelings.  Matt Taibbi was right: this presidential race should never have been so close.  And it is a sign of blind loyalty to party and the idea of the power of winning that has turned this thing into a circus beyond mockery.

What a shame.

# # # # 

As a sort of brief but related aside, I think you should know I'm considering putting The Spencerian on the electronic shelf, if you will, for a little while.  For a host of reasons, but the overarching reason is that this kind of stuff -- the legitimized comments of a megalomaniacal billionaire lunatic, rape as a campaign platform, etc. -- is all just too much.  It's not fun anymore, or it hasn't been lately.

I'm not giving up on writing.  There is a lot I want to do -- not all of it political.  And I'm a big believer in signs, so maybe this election has been a sign of sorts.  

If you follow the blog and like what you read, don't worry, and don't panic.  We'll see how the election goes, see what I have to say after the fact.  If we're lucky, things will simmer down a bit and we'll find some rhetorical equilibrium.

Final Debate Night: The World Stage

by Benjamin J. Kirby

I'll be watching tonight, even as I fight off a cold.  I know.  Poor me.  

I'll certainly try to do my usual thing on Twitter and Facebook.  I already saw a too-true Tweet from conservative activist and prolific Tweeter Sarah Rumpf:

‏@rumpfshaker  Prediction: tonight will see the highest-ever use of "picture-in-picture" function on American TVs.   #debates #NFL #MLB

So true.  It's a shame, because tonight focuses on international affairs.  Should be a strong suit for President Obama.  Kept promises in Iraq and Afghanistan.  OBL's head.  Rebuilding American stature globally.  

But after the first debate -- which still stings -- and given that the RomneyBot will apparently say anything at any time regardless of whether it is actually true, I'm going into this thing with an abundance of caution.

I did notice from one of the gajillion emails I get now from whoever in politics that this is actually President Obama's last debate.  You have to wonder what that's like for him.  I mean, your whole life has basically built up to the Presidency, and here you are at a true milestone.  

Those kinds of milestones are big deals in our own every day, not-leading-the-free-world lives.  It must be strange when it happens to POTUS.  

I also wonder if this won't mean he's not sort of unmoored a little bit, kind of free to do and say stuff he might not normally do or say.  Look, we're a little more than two weeks out.  He's either going to win or lose.  Pretty good chance it won't rest on this debate.  Shouldn't he just go out there with everything he has?  

To use the sports analogy, why leave anything on the field?  Why would you?

So, go football, go baseball, and go to work, Mr. President.

And while you're waiting and I'm eating home-made chicken-noodle soup, here's this great and appropriate video for your viewing and listening pleasure.  Still one of my favorites.

Are We There Yet?

by Laura Jane Cohen

We got back last Sunday night from a mini vacation. My husband had a work conference and so the kids and I tagged along. On the 5 hour drive, several times the kids asked what remains my favorite road trip question:

"Are we there yet?"

"No, you'll know when we get there."

"How much longer until we get there?"

"I don't know. Not that much longer."

And with that, they invariably sighed or groaned and went back to the business of a road trip, eating junk food and watching a movie.

I've really struggled with what to write these past few weeks. I've started and scrapped six posts ranging from a confession of a suburban white high-schooler to a rant about PTA politics. The problem is that I don't know what to say. Among my friends, among my family, this election season has been a line in the sand. You find yourself constantly tiptoeing around land mines, trying to assess how much of your opinion you really want to express. While my good friend and next door neighbor, who is a Republican Mormon, and I have stopped short of filling each other's lawns with yard signs from the opposing candidate, we are very careful to change the topic when our election conversations begin to hit a little too close to home. On Facebook, on TV, and even in your own cul-de-sac, it seems you're either pro Obama, against Obama, or so turned off by the whole thing that you question if America will survive the divisiveness that has become the hallmark of this election.

If you know me, you know I'm a Democrat. A big "D" Democrat. Like Lady Gaga, I was born this way. Political memories are some of my first clear memories. I remember watching the election results as Ronald Reagan soundly trounced my fellow Georgian, Jimmy Carter. My parents were so disheartened that I wondered if Jimmy Carter was a family friend that I didn't remember. When I was younger, being a Democrat was more like rooting for the Brewers than the Yankees. I grew up in Marietta, Georgia, where Newt Gingrich was my Member of Congress. Our district was solidly Republican, years before the entire state went red.

My parents were social studies teachers who constantly stressed the rights and responsibilities of being a citizen. I am also a woman, a fact that my grandmother, who was 14 when women finally got the right to vote, would never let me forget. All the women who suffered, who were blacklisted from their own lives, I owed it to those women to never let a race for dogcatcher go by without casting my ballot.

The first time I voted for President, it was for Bill Clinton. He was a southerner, like me. He talked about raising people up. About the need for healthcare reform about looking ahead with an eye to the past. Are you better off than you were four years ago? The country overwhelming said "no". It was the first time that the person I had voted for actually won. I was hooked. Whether it was helping my mom run a neighbor's campaign for state house, working for the Lt. Governor, or canvassing with two kids under 2 in a double jog stroller, I've been involved in politics ever since.

But politics has changed. I guess it's a result of tough times. People are on guard. Always afraid that they will be the next one to get laid off. Afraid that their retirement savings will disappear. Afraid that they won't be able to send their kids to college or pay the mortgage. With the 24 hour news cycle and talking heads like Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, and Bill Maher, there is no room for real political discourse and very little room for facts. Political conversations aren't conversations at all. They are talking points angrily said to one another with Wolf Blitzer in the foreground. Instead of talking about issues and public policy, we spend time talking about the "true" nationality and religion of our current President. Instead of having a discussion about healthcare, we fight about Obamacare and Romneycare or whether or not Romney wears special Mormon underwear. We tolerate people talking about "taking out" the President (I don't care how good of a song "Cat Scratch Fever" is...you lost me, Ted).

This year feels different. I have been quiet. No canvassing. Not even so much as a bumper sticker on my car. Honestly, for the first time in my life, I've been afraid to rock the boat. Too many waves and people start to get nervous. What if you knock somebody out of the boat? Or worse, you fall out yourself? No, my Obama Mama t-shirt sits collecting dust because I have been too polite.

And then I went to early vote. I stood in line with people of every color, gender, shape, and size. The poll worker announced that the woman in front of me was a first-time voter and everyone cheered and clapped and I stood there with a lump in my throat. A guilty, teary lump. I have just shrugged my shoulders or gently shaken my head as people have said the most outrageous lies about a president I support. And now I'm done being quiet.

I support President Obama not just because he is the Democrat in the race. Not just because he is not Mitt Romney. I support him because while I am not a fan of abortion, I believe that government, especially one made up mostly of men, don't get to make policy about my body. I've been paying attention and I have never seen them get to make a decision about a man's. I, like Thomas Jefferson and John Locke before me, think that all people are endowed with certain inalienable rights and that among those is the right to pursue happiness, i.e. no government should make laws which arbitrarily infringe on that right. And if all of you get to keep your AK-47's as part of keeping a well armed militia, I just can't comprehend why on Earth that you think that the same documents you use to protect that right can be used to strip away someone else's right to marry another consenting adult, no matter what their gender. I support the President because I believe that no one should have to make a choice between taking their diabetes medication or being able to put food on the table. Between being able to keep their adult child with severe Autism in a loving group home or paying their own mortgage. I support the President because I don't believe that you should go to a good college and rack up loads of debt, come out and get a modest paying job and have banks charge you 29% interest on that loan. Predatory lending should not be what keeps you from ever being able to move out of your parents basement. I support the President because I was taught that we have a God given responsibility to help those who cannot help themselves. Matthew 25:40 tells us "The King will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did for one of the least of these brothers and sisters of mine, you did for me.'" I will not turn my back on these principles because some believe that people in need are "gaming" the system. Jesus didn't means test who he helped. He helped those who needed help. I ask you to try to provide for your family for a month on food stamps and then tell me that it's a free ride. If we do nothing else as a country, we should be mindful of the times we have fallen in our own lives. Of the times we needed help from our family, a friend, a neighbor. I don't imagine there is a one of us who hasn't had help on the way to picking ourselves back up off the ground. I think it is very fitting that a small chunk of my tax dollars go to helping folks who have had a rougher go in life than I have. And I sure don't mind the extremely wealthy giving a little bit bigger chunk of what they make. I like to think of it as the government being the middle man in the Lord's work. I'm good with that.

No, just like our road trip, we're not there yet. How much longer? I don't know. Hopefully not much. But there is traffic. They are roadblocks that have nothing to do with who the driver is or how well he's driving or how badly he wants to get there. Are we there yet? No. But we will get there. And for my family, with my precious kids along for the ride. This is the driver I am betting on to get us there.

I'm done being quiet because it's too important. Too much is at stake. Because, as the Indigo Girls reminded me last night, "Don't take a seat, don't stand aside, this time. Don't assume anything. Just go. Go. Go." Whether you agree with me or think I'm full of it, I do hope that you will go. Go vote. Too many people lost too much on the way to have that opportunity. And too many people have too much to lose if we stand aside this time.