The Spencerian

It's a Numbers Game General 2012 Edition

Gallup: Romney 42%, Santorum 24% as Santorum Exits

Gallup: Obama's Monthly Job Approval Edges Higher in March

Pew: The Gender Gap: Three Decades Old, as Wide as Ever

Real Clear Politics - Romney versus Obama:  Obama +5.3

Real Clear Politics - Generic Congressional Vote: Republicans +1.2

Real Clear Politics - Obama and Romney Favorables: Obama +7.5   Romney -10.4

TPM Polltracker - Romney Favorable/Unfavorable: 37.8% Favorable   46.9% Unfavorable

TPM Polltracker - Obama Favorable/Unfavorable: 52.0% Favorable   45.3% Unfavorable

TPM Polltracker - Obama Job Approval: 47.8% Disapprove   47.6% Approve

Washington Post/ABC News: Romney winning struggling middle-class voters

Rasmussen - Massachusetts U.S. Senate Race: Warren (D) 46%   Brown (R) 45%

Rasmussen - Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 45%   Democrats 40%

Rasmussen - Election 2012 New Mexico: Obama 52%   Romney 36%

 

It's a Numbers Game Almost 2012 Edition

Gallup - Obama Job Approval: Approve 43%   Disapprove 49% (NOTE:  Approval up 3% from mid-September, Disapprove down from 53%)

Gallup - Americans Blame Both Sides for 'SuperCommittee' Failure

Gallup - Black Friday Spending up Despite Continued Pessimism

Gallup - Most Egyptians Believe Continued Protests are Bad for Country

Pew - Romney's Mormon Faith Likely a Factor in Primaries, Not in a General Election

Pew -- More Now Disagree with Tea Party -- Even in Tea Party Districts

Pew - The American-Western European Values Gap (American Exceptionalism Subsides)

Real Clear Politics - Florida Republican Presidential Primary: Gingrinch +2.4

Real Clear Politics - Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus: Gingrich +8.2

TPM - Obama Job Approval National: +13 Disapprove

TPM - Obama Job Approval North Carolina: +5 Disapprove

TPM - Florida Republican Presidential Primary: Gingrich +24

TPM - Obama vs. Gingrich Florida: Obama 45%   Gingrich 43%

It's a Numbers Game Edition

It's been a few months since I've done one of these.  Since we're all gearing up for Election 2012, I thought I'd reintroduce this occassional series.

Gallup - Obama Job Approval: Approve 40%    Disapprove 53%

Gallup - Congressional Job Approval: Approve 15%    Disapprove 82%

Gallup - Generic Ballot vs. Obama: GOP Candidate 39%    Obama 45%

TPM Polltracker - Obama Job Approval: Approve 42.1%    Disapprove 53.5%

TPM Polltracker - Florida U.S. Senate 2012 (GOP): McCalister 15%    LeMieux 10.8%    Miller 5%    Hasner 4%

TPM Polltracker - Florida GOP Presidential Primary: Romney 22.1%    Perry 18.4%    Bachmann 8.8%    Paul 5.8%    Cain 5.6%    Gingrich 2.6%    Huntsman 1.6%    Santorum 1.5%  

Real Clear Politics - Florida Republic Presidential Primary: RCP Average, Romney +3

Real Clear Politics - 2012 Republican Presidential Nomiation (National): RPC Average, Perry +10.2

Real Clear Politics: Obama Regains Lead Over Perry in Poll

Pew Research Center - Few See Jobs Proposals Having Much Effect

DailyKos: NYT/CBS poll: Economy, jobs seen as a far bigger problem than deficit

It's a Numbers Game I Just Got My Ballot Edition

Five Thirty Eight: Florida Senate, Rubio 41.6%, Crist 34.4%, Meek 24.1%

Five Thirty Eight: Florida Senate Probabilities, Rubio 76.2% chance of winning, Crist 22.1% chance of winning, Meek 1.7% chance of winning

Gallup: Obama Job Approval, 44% Approve, 49% Disapprove (1 percent change + in Approve number since August 30)

Gallup: Americans Confident in Own Bank, but Not U.S. Banks

Gallup: In U.S., 13% More Have Gov't Healthcare Since Recession Began

Gallup: U.S. Leadership Approval Still High in 10 African Nations

TPM Polltracker: Florida Governor, Sink 45.5%, Scott 44.4% (with conservative polls included)

TPM Polltracker: Florida U.S. Senate, Rubio 40.0%, Crist 29.5%, Meek 22.1% (with conservative polls included)

TPM Polltracker: Obama Job Approval, 53.9% Disapprove, 43.6% Approve

It's a Numbers Game: The Who Keeps Calling it the 'Silly Season' Edition

Gallup: Obama Job Approval, 43% Approve, 49% Disapprove

Gallup: Americans Oppose Renewing U.S. Combat Operations in Iraq

Gallup: GOP Maintains Edge in Midterm Voting Preferences, 47% to 44%

TPM PollTracker: Florida Governor, Sink 40.9%, Scott 36.7%, Chiles 7.7%

TPM PollTracker: Florida U.S. Senate, Rubio 35.2%, Crist 34.7%, Meek 17.8%

TPM PollTracker: Governor Charlie Crist Job Approval, 51.1% Approve, 43.0% Disapprove

TPM PollTracker: Arkansas U.S. Senate, Boozman 60.3%, Lincoln 31.2%

Real Clear Politics: Florida U.S. Senate average Rubio +2.4

Real Clear Politics: Arkansas U.S. Senate average Boozman +28.2

Please be sure to check out the interactive Cook Political Report Dashboard for Senate, House, and Governor races.  Not only is it very cool, but it should give Democrats a warm-ish, fuzzy-ish feeling inasmuch as it shows just how uphill the battle is for Republicans to win back the House and/or the Senate.

The go to FiveThirtyEight, and have them rain all over your parade. 

It's a Numbers Game: Crazy Things Happen in the Heat of Summer Edition

You can't talk about polling and numbers without talking about the growing rift between DailyKos's Markos Moulitsas and the polling firm of Research 2000.

We contracted with Research 2000 to conduct polling and to provide us with the results of their surveys. Based on the report of the statisticians, it's clear that we did not get what we paid for. We were defrauded by Research 2000, and while we don't know if some or all of the data was fabricated or manipulated beyond recognition, we know we can't trust it. Meanwhile, Research 2000 has refused to offer any explanation.

I guess some of the latest is the Research 2000 legal team has sent a cease and disist letter to Nate Silver, the guru of numbers and data blog FiveThirtyEight.

So here's your number: there's a 99.99% chance this gets uglier before it gets better.  Plus or minus .01%. 

Pew Research: The Great Recession at 30 Months.

Pew Research: More than six-in-ten (62%) Americans believe that their personal finances will improve in the coming year, and a small but growing minority (15%) now says the national economy is in good shape.

Pew Research: Of those who say their family finances have lost ground during the recession, 63% say it will take at least three years to recover.

Gallup: Americans Slightly Less Negative About Finding Quality Jobs.

Gallup: Percentage of Americans who want stricter gun laws drifts lower.

Gallup: Obama Job Approval, 46% approve, 45% disapprove.

Rasmussen: 60% Support Offshore Oil Drilling.

Quinnipiac: Florida Governor GOP, Rick Scott 41%, Bill McCollum 31%.

Quinnipiac: Bloomberg Unscathed by Budget Cuts.

Public Policy Polling: Fisher leads in Ohio.

American Research Group: 41% approve of Obama job.

Talking Points Memo: Obama Approval 46%, Disapprove 48%.

 -- More later -- 

It's a Numbers Game: Nobody Likes Anybody Edition

Quinnipiac: 48 - 35 percent want their state to pass an immigration law similar to Arizona's.

DailyKos: Sestak is breaking away from Toomey.

DailyKos: Halter has a slim lead over Lincoln.

TPM Polltracker: Arkansas Senate Race, Halter 47.3%, Lincoln 44.7%.

Gallup: U.S. Voter Enthusiasm Declines After Peaking in Late March, 30%.

Gallup: One in Four Americans Plans to Travel Less This Summer.

Gallup: Americans Divided on Increased Coastal Oil Drilling.

Polling Report/DailyKos Poll: "Would you like to see more Democrats or Republicans elected to Congress in 2010?" Democrats 47%, Republicans 46%, Unsure 7%.

Pew Research: Neither Party has Edge on Economy.

Public Policy Polling: Undecided Leads GOP and Dem. Races for MI Governor [PDF] 6/1/10.

It's a Numbers Game: Number Hash Edition

Kevin's comment in my post below made me realize I hadn't done one of these in a little while.  Here we go.

Gallup: Republican 2010 Voting Enthusiasm Shrinks

Gallup: U.S. Daily Life Evaluation, 54% thriving, 43% struggling, 3% suffering

Gallup: Generic Ballot for Congress, even split at 45% (GOP candidate down from early April, Dem candidate up)

Gallup: Enthusiasm About Voting, 41% not enthusiastic, 35% very enthusiastic, 22% somewhat enthusiastic

Charlie Cook: Dems Troubled But Holding On ("2010 won't be dull.")

Real Clear Politics: U.S. Senate - Arkansas, Lincoln versus Baker, Baker +12 (RCP average)

Real Clear Politics: U.S. Senate - Florida, Crist versus Rubio versus Meek: Crist +4 (RCP average)

Rasmussen: Florida Voters, Obama Job Approval, 32% strongly approve, 15% somewhat approve, 10% somewhat disapprove, 43% strongly disapprove, 0% not sure

Rasmussen: U.S. Senate Florida, Crist versus Rubio versus Meek: Rubio 34%, Meek 17%, Crist 38%, not sure 11% (FWIW, it's Marco Rubio, not Marcus Rubio... which kind of ought to tell you something about this poll and about Rasmussen).

Five Thirty Eight: Senate Races Present Rewards, but Higher Risks for Democrats

It's a Numbers Game: The Visual Edition

If you're a Democrat and you're either running for office, or you're a campaign staffer for a Democratic candidate for office, you should print out these charts and carry them around wherever you go.

At the very least, I don't want to hear any more about how Democrats either can't govern, or Obama doesn't know what he's doing on the economy.

 

 

 

 

It's a Numbers Game: Good Graphs

These first two are fantastic -- these are the kinds of visuals that campaign professionals ought to horde.

FiveThirtyEight.com: Foreign Aid Spending Is Crippling Our Budget...NOT

Speaker Pelosi (via Ghost in the Machine): On Jobs and the Jobless

Washington Post: Broad support for repeal of DADT

Gallup: Obama Job Approval, 53% Approve, 40% Disapprove

It's a Numbers Game: Politics and Elections 2010 Edition

Gallup: Economic Confidence Improving.

Gallup: Democratic Support Dips Below Majority Level in 2009.

Gallup: Conservatives Finish 2009 as Number 1 Ideological Group.

FiveThirtyEight: Senate Races Present Rewards, But Higher Risks for Democrats.

Charlie Cook: Dems Troubled But Holding On.

Real Clear Politics: Arkansas Senate Race, Lincoln vs. Baker, Baker +3.

Real Clear Politics: Arkansas Senate Race, Lincoln vs. Hendren, Lincoln +8.

PollingReport/DailyKos: Would you like to see more Democrats or Republicans elected to Congress in 2010? Democrats 38; Republicans 35; Unsure 27.

New York Times: An Early Assessment of the 2010 Senate Races.

Washington Post: President Obama Approval Ratings, Approve 57%; Disapprove 40%; No Opinion 3%. 

It's a Numbers Game: The Congratulations! You Lose Edition

Charlie Cook thinks Democrats have problems.  But it's a little tough to discern why after reading his Nov. 7 colum.  Of 14 individual paragraphs in the column, one explains John Corzine's loss of the New Jersey governorship as kind of New Jersey-centric thing:

The incumbent lost even though the anti-Corzine vote was divided between GOP nominee Chris Christie and a publicly financed independent candidate, Chris Daggett, who had once served under Gov. Tom Kean, arguably the most popular Republican governor in New Jersey history. But it's hard to extrapolate much from Corzine's loss that would be significant beyond the borders of New Jersey.

The next four paragraphs are dedicated to the congressional race in the New York 23rd District, where a Democrat won for the first time in a gajillion years:

Democrats are to be congratulated on their triumph in the 23rd District's tough, hard-fought contest. But they would be wise not to forget that half of the votes went to the candidates on the Conservative and Republican ballot lines.

Bold is mine. Because so far in this piece, with respect to offered "congratulations" from Charlie, it's Democrats: 1, Republicans: 0.

Okay, okay -- who am I to give Charlie Cook a hard time?  Nobody, that's who.  I do agree with his analysis that Independents are moving away from Democrats.  I'm just not buying the Democrats-had-a-bad-Election-Day meme.  At least not entirely.

Gallup: Obama Job Approval, 53%.

Gallup: Americans Split on Afghanistan Troop Increase.

Real Clear Politics: Obama Job Approval, 51.6%.

Real Clear Politicsl: Congressional Job Approval, 25%.

DailyKos: Obama Favorable, 55; Unfavorable, 35.

Pew: Obama Popular in Japan, China and South Korea. (NOTE: the president is headed out today on a nine-day tour of Asia.)

Five Thirty Eight: House Handicapping One Year Out.

Rasmussen: 73% Worry Some May Be Executed for Crimes They Didn't Commit.

 -- More later -- 

The Almost Friday Polling and Scandinavian Home Furnishings Edition

Some new polling in from Rasmussen on the big race in Florida for 2010.  Highlights (okay, almost all the lights) are as follows:  

There's a 22 point gap between Crist and Rubio in the GOP primary for Senate.  The conventional wisdom Rasmussen is espousing is that because Crist is "barely" above 50% (he's at 53%), there's a potential weakness there.  I'm not so sure about that.  What do they mean by "weakness", anyway?

Crist leads Kendrick Meek as well as Corrine Brown.

Crist retains a 59% approval rating.  I don't know what is the matter with Florida.  I really, really don't.  Although now would be a very appropriate time to point out that traditionally, Rasmussen leans Republican.

Quinnipiac got in the game, too, on the Governor's race side.  Looks like McCollum is leading Alex Sink by about four points.  They point out that this reverses the early trend we saw in which Alex overtook the Florida Attorney General.  I expect we'll see more swing in this race, so I'm not too worried about it.  Go get 'em, Alex.

Oh, and on the national scene, according to the good people at Gallup, Obama's job approval is at the lowest it's ever been (unless I missed something, and I don't think I did), at 51%.

All the good guys look to be down -- but I don't think they're out.  We've got a long time before mid-terms next year.  So let's go to work for our folks.  It's a marathon, not a sprint. 

# # # #

More numbers: there's a 99.99% chance I'm going to be spending some quality time here this weekend. 

100% looking forward to a new couch.  And whatever else we may come upon...

# # # #

We're 75% through the week (meaning it's almost Friday).  And the following has nothing to do with Duncan, who -- pregnant or not -- is never smug.  But it is funny.  Rock on, crew:

It's a Numbers Game: Health Care, the Environment and More

Gallup: State of the nation, 66% dissatisfied, 31% satisfied.

Gallup: Obama Approval, 61% approve, 32% disapprove.

Real Clear Politics: Obama Approval, 60.3% approve, 32.8% disapprove.

Pew: Independents Take Center Stage in the Obama Era.

New York Times: Wide Support for Government Run Health.

Washington Post: Wide Support for Government-Run Health.

FiveThirtyEight: Obama's (Unintentionally?) Brilliant Strategy on Cap-and-Trade.

FiveThirtyEight: The Environmental Indifference Point.

Washington Post: Limits on Emissions Have Wide Support.

PollingReport/CBS News/New York Times: "What is the most important problem facing the country today?" Economy and Jobs, 57%.

It's a Numbers Game: Politics, the Future, Coffee and More

Real Clear Politics Obama Favorable/Unfavorable: 65.5%, 25.5%.

Gallup, Criminal Investigation into possible attempts to use the Justice Department for political purposes: 41%.

Gallup, What would you most like to see done to help the Postal Service out of its financial difficulties: Cut back on services 57%.

Polling Report, "Thinking about the next elections for U.S. Congress in 2010, if the elections for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?": Democrat 46%, Republican 22%.

Pew Research, Would you prefer to live in a place with more McDonald's or Starbucks?: McDonald's 43%, Starbucks 35%.

Five Thirty Eight: The Two Progressivisms. (I'm fairly sure I'm a Rational Progressive).